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Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro is approaching at this very moment the bottom of the rising channel on the hourly chart, and in the same area we noticed an intraday support that has shown itself several times lately, which adds more importance to this level. Reaching this area is the most important test for the EURUSD since reaching 1.4766 last Thursday.

If it survives here, there will be a chance to test the most important resistance for the short-term 1.4723 which is the falling trendline from last week's high, and if this resistance is also taken, we will have a good chance of seeing the top of the channel which is currently at 1.4824, this week.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The euro broke above the rising trend channel for the first time, reaching a new high for this year at 1.4746, and leaving any expectation for a correction to start in these areas, in very bad shape. A break to the upside in a rising channel is usually a signal that shows how powerful the uptrend is, which makes it only logical to expect more gains for the European single currency.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Dollar-Yen broke the 90.77 support and reached a new bottom only pips below the previous one, before it managed to bounce up. What happened yesterday had two effects. First: the area containing the previous bottom 90.19 & yesterday's bottom 90.11 has provided itself as a good support area. Second: the calculation of Fibonacci resistance has slightly changed, and the new Fibonacci retracement levels are 91.32, 91.70 and 92.07. the return above 91 after reaching yesterday's low shows that the dollar has not given up yet, and that it could try again to reach one of the Fibonacci levels mentioned above.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

We came close to the ideal target for this correction: 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76), and reached 91.63 yesterday. And now, the falling trend channel is exactly at this level, which makes it the most important resistance for today, more important than 92.10. Although the ideal target for the current correction will still be 91.74, there is a possibility to target 92.10, but when we compare these two targets, we find that the most important is 91.74 since it combines a Fibonacci resistance, and a previous support, and even more important the top of the falling channel.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Euro Dollar

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

As this report expected yesterday, the dollar-Yen moved up slightly in a small correction. Our view is still as it was in yesterday's report when we said: "after the plunge from 92.38 last week to 90.19 this morning, the possibility of a correction ahead of 90 is growing. Such a correction could go up to 91.74 (Fibonacci 50% retracement, SMA100 on the hourly chart & the previous important support 91.73-91.76). Or, it could even go to 92.10 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, and the descending trendline from last month's peak)." The only changes to this view are that the descending trendline is now below Fibonacci 61.8%, and that the SMA100 is almost exactly at Fibonacci 38.2%.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro held above the suggested support 1.4501 and rallied to a new top for this trend at 1.4650, which is still inside the suggested area for a top.

The top of the channel is currently at 1.4682 and this will be a curtail resistance, that could stop the current rise and force a correction of good size.

We favor the formation of a top in these areas as long as the Euro does not break the top of the channel decisively. After that we expect a move down to areas below 1.45.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Euro Dollar

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Finally, we have tested the most important support level in the current price area: 91.73-91.76, which is the small support area that holds within the lows of July 8th, 10th, and 13th. Price hardly held above it after reaching 91.60. And we think that breaking it would have enough influence to "finally" accelerate the downtrend, and would be followed by a move down to 90.90 or even 89.69. As for attempts to go higher, they would not mean anything without a break of Fibonacci 61.8% resistance at 92.20, which stopped the rise twice, during the American & Asian sessions. If this resistance is broken, we think the USDJPY will target areas above 93 such as 93.42, and if this one is also broken, the next stop would probably be 94.16.

Support:

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The rise that we expect to be in a 5-wave mode, is still developing nicely, reaching 1.46 for the first time this year. We still believe it has enough strength to reach the top of the channel, which is slowly approaching 1.47. The resistance which stopped yesterday's rise is actually 1.4592 (yesterday's high was 1.4600), and we will adopt it as resistance of the day.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The ascending trendline drawn from last week's low 91.93, units with the horizontal support line at 92.74, and also with the moving average SMA100, and finally with Fibonacci 38.2% support for the short-term to form the most important support for today. Stabilization above this level is essential to keep the view that the correction for the leg down from 97.77 has already begun, and that short-term downtrend has ended. But, first we have to break through 93.04. Ideally, this correction would target 94.85 or 95.54, and in this case the latter would be a decisive resistance that will determine the trend for the short-term.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Euro Dollar

The Euro has broken the falling trendline from Aug 27th high, and stayed above it the whole time. That is why, there is still a big probability to surpass 1.4405 and head towards areas above 1.45 for the first time this year, where targets such as 1.4510 and 1.4572 are waiting. We need to see a break of the close resistance 1.4346 to increase confidence.




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