Munther T Marji

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro jumped to a new 5-month high yesterday at 1.3503, only 6 pips below the important 50% Fibonacci level for the medium term. This accurate reversal at a Fibonacci level leaves the Euro vulnerable, it could drop hard, any minute from anywhere, and it will be like this unless it breaks 1.3509. Therefore, the Euro has 2 choices, not 3: either it breaks 1.3509, or it collapses. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up.

GBP / USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

After the market’s open, the Pound had hit the highest level since Aug 11th at 1.5843, and that came as a natural result of breaking the important 1.5728 in the second attempt on Friday. The technical indicators show a state of “overbnought” which leaves the possibility of a sharp correction there, but the short term trend is a rising one after breaking the 1.5728 level. This is why we strongly recommend not to pick sides today before breaking the specified support or resistance, and we believe that the short term direction will not show itself before a break! Short term support is provided by the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the micro-term at 1.5765. If this level is broken , we will drop to more important Fibonacci level at 1.5673 &1.5632.

USD/JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Dollar/Yen retreated from 85.37 which was hit after rumors of an intervention, but as we said in our last report, this swift adventure could not be classified as a break of the what was them important level 85.28. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued.

Euro/Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro topped at a 5-month high on Friday, hitting a high of 1.3497, just pips before the important Fibonacci level for the medium term. Last week, we had analyzed the medium-long term, and after doing all the necessary analysis using classical technical analysis, Elliot & Fibonacci, we found that most probably the first leg up from 1.1875 to 1.3332 is wave A of a 3-wave correction up. We also found that, most probably, the drop which followed is wave B, which stopped at Fibonacci 50% level of wave A with not-so-well kind of accuracy as it bottomed at 1.2586 whereas the Fibonacci level was 1.2604. If this move has stopped closer to the Fibonacci level, we would have expected this current rise from the first step it took around 1.26.

GBP / USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report, 1.5660 and dropped hard to successfully reach our suggested target of 1.5549. with this drop, the Pound has sailed away from the all important 1.5728, and therefore, the technical outlook is now negative, without a doubt, and based on several factors which are: 1. The extremely accurate top at 1.5728, 2. Breaking the rising trend line from last week’s high & 3. Yesterday’s drop to a 6-day low. Short term support is at 1.5558, if broken, we expect a strong drop which will look a lot like yesterday’s fall. The targets for such a drop will be the important 1.5438, then 1.5344. Resistance is at 1.5655, and only with a break here that we will change our negative outlook.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Stunningly, the Euro stopped exactly & down to the pip at our suggested resistance in yesterday’s report 1.3118, to confirm the importance of this level, which will live to see itself as our resistance for one more day. The Euro had penetrated 1.3047 on Thursday, and jumped strongly, reaching the first suggested target for this break 1.3145, it stopped there, and dropped from Friday high which was 1.3157, sharply. We have abandoned our negative outlook after the penetration of 1.3047, but it seems that the Euro has failed at the first serious test after that. The price has stopped at the retest level of the rising trend line from the June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart), and then left us with a (Shooting Star) candle pattern.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

No change whatsoever in this pair that is not moving! Japan warned speculators once again on Friday, that it will step in if needed. The price has moved sideways for a few days now. This leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance in the past few days, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together on Wednesday, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound has touched our resistance of 1.5278 on Friday, as the high was 1.5727, and it traded below there the whole time. We have clarified in Thursday’s & Friday’s reports the huge importance of this level. When we investigate the rising move from 1.5295. When we do, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.5996, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. The Pound reached 1.5727, the highest level since August 11th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.5728 (please refer to the attached chart). The most important level is definitely 1.5728. This level will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Japan warned speculators once again on Friday, that it will be violent against those who buy the Yen. The price has moved sideways for quite a while now. This leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance yesterday, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together during yesterday’s Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Although the Euro penetrated 1.3047 on Thursday, and jumped strongly, reaching the first suggested target 1.3145, it stopped there, and dropped from Friday high which was 1.3157, sharply. The importance of breaking 1.3047 comes from the fact that this level is Fibonacci 61.8% for the whole drop from 1.3332 which is a 4-month high, to 1.2586 which is a 2-month low. We have abandoned our negative outlook after the penetration of 1.3047, but it seems that the Euro has failed at the first serious test after that. The price has stopped at the retest level of the rising trend line from the June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). Therefore, the technical outlook, even after penetrating 1.3047, is not strong enough to consider the Euro a “buy”, after failing in the retest.

GBP/USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound jumped yesterday, to break the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5533, and then reach the first suggested target 1.5464 successfully & accurately as the price topped only 4 pips above it. Whet is even more important than meeting our 100 pips target is what we see when we investigate the rising move from 1.5295. When we do, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.5996, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 50% level. Yesterday’s high was 1.5650, the highest level since August 19th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.5646 (please refer to the attached chart). This resistance is pretty important, but we have to admit that the most important level is definitely 1.5728. This level will determine everything for the medium term.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen retreated more than 35 pips today, or 0.41%, this leaves a question hanging: after the intervention, what’s next? Yesterday’s support & resistance levels were not touched, and this pair calmed after the Japs stormed it up! But failure to break 85.89 which we talked about its importance yesterday, leaves possibilities of downside activity open. All the major Yen pairs jumped together during yesterday’s Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister (Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro did not move enough to penetrate the support or resistance specified in yesterday’s report. But, when we investigate the rising move from 1.2586, we see that it is a correction for the previous dive from 1.3332, which topped very close to the Fibonacci 61.8% level. Yesterday’s high was 1.3035, the highest level since August 11th, whereas the important resistance is at 1.3047 (please refer to the attached chart). This resistance will determine everything for the medium term. If we break it, we will literally fly, and if we fail close to it, this pair will be frustrated and move south. That is why it will be our resistance of the day. If broken, we will target 1.3145 & 1.3237. On the other hand, it would sound bizarre to say that the Euro is weak, and we will not say that.

GBP/USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound jumped yesterday and broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5490, and reached the first suggested target for this break at 1.5575 successfully. After it topped 10 pips above our target then dropped hard for more than 100 pips. This is a sign of exhaustion, and that breaking 1.5490, which we believe is very important, only had a short term effect on the price behavior. This morning we approached a critical short term support level which is Fibonacci 61.8% for the latest rise from 1.5347 on Monday to 1.5585 yesterday. This level which is at 1.5438 is the most important support for now.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

All the major Yen pairs jumped together during the Asian session, gaining more than 2.5% each, which fueled speculation that the Japs have done it! Shortly after that, in a quickly arranged news conference, finance minister(Noda) confirmed it and said: “yes, we have intervened”! Finally ladies & gentlemen, here is your long awaited intervention. The Japanese authorities have had it after they saw 82 appears on the screens for the first time since1995. A lot of people would now argue that this is not the time for technical analysis, but the intervention only takes a short period of time to be completed, then things go back into the hands of the market powers.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro jumped strongly yesterday, even though it initially broke the support specified in yesterday’s report. We broke the important level specified in yesterday’s report 1.2920, and successfully reached the first suggested target of 1.3000. We have seen the EURUSD jumping more than 100 pips above the massive 1.2920, this shows that even when they are broken, important levels provide good trading opportunities just as when they hold and reverse the trend.

GBP/USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound jumped after the market's open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.54. The question we presented yesterday was will it succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.5490? And we have recommended selling close to this level. The price behavior was completely in line with our analysis. The price stopped at 1.5486 (4 pips before our resistance) and dived to 1.5347 (3 pips before the target). That was the 4th time this month we test the massive 1.5490! and we still believe that if there was a 5th time, it is a good selling opportunity, with a stop above 1.5532.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

We broke the support specified in yesterday's report 83.79, and the price dived to 83.07 so far. This was completely expected, and we do hope that we are on the way to our long awaited target of 82.00. Last week, we adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday's jump. We still believe in USD/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.48 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again last week, as the "Japs" said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing!

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro jumped after the market's open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.28 in the morning, and hitting 1.2890 in New York. Now the question is will the EUR succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.2920? In fact, we do not believe it will, and even if it did, this will provide a selling opportunity. As we approach 1.2920, sort of (yesterday's high was 1.2890), we believe that topping and creating a medium term top to fall from for days is very possible. But there is a very critical condition to this gloomy scenario, which is to top below or close to 1.2920, and not to break this level decisively. Short term support is at 1.2853, if broken, the real journey away from 1.2920 will start.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound jumped after the market's open and continued a bounce it started on Friday, going back above 1.54. Now the question is will is succeeds in creating yet another test of 1.5490? In fact, we could see a test of this massive resistance area, but we believe that such a test would provide a selling opportunity, with a stop above 1.5532. The reasons behind this belief are two: we have seen how this massive resistance level has rejected the price 3 times recently, and because the falling trend line from Aug 16th top is just above it providing another important resistance. It is hard to picture this pair breaking both levels today, and that is why we recommend this strategy: sell around 1.5490, stop clearly above 1.5532, and the target at 1.5344.




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