Munther T Marji

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

No change for our negative technical outlook for this pair, as long as we are trading below the falling trend line from June 4th top. Last week, we adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday's jump. We still believe in USD/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 84.72 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again last week, as the "Japs" said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing!

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound dropped on Monday, from the very same area which stopped it on Sep 1st, the all important resistance 1.5480/90, and this drop reached 1.5295 yesterday. Then, the price jumped for more than 100 pips so far. This bounce or short term uptrend found a supporting trend lien which is currently at 1.5374. We expect the Dollar to try and break this level, to continue its rebound from the gigantic resistance 1.5490. If it manages to do so, we will be in for another episode of the drop series, similar to what we have seen on Monday. This will target 1.5262 at the very least, and at a later time 1.5151. On the other hand, the most important resistance is 1.5441. We do not exaggerate when we say that this level is the single most important one in determining the short term direction.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen dropped to 83.33, a new 15-year low! The latest drop came in the midst of the disappointment in the BoJ, which after a 2-day meeting, announced that it will not do anything at the moment to deal with the strong Yen. We have recently adjusted the falling trend line on the hourly chart to include Friday’s jump. We still believe in USD/JPY weakness, and we believe it will travel south. Only a break of this line in specific will change our minds. This line is currently running at 85.10 (please refer to the attached chart). To keep trading below it, indicates more downside activity, especially after the BoJ disappointed again yesterday, as the “Japs” said once again they are watching closely, but they did nothing!

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro fell heavily during yesterday’s Asian session, then it resumed the drop during the European session. After stopping just below the enormous resistance we talked about in Monday’s report 1.2920 (Monday’s high was 1.2916), we saw the Euro fall, breaking yesterday’s support 1.2777 and successfully reached the first suggested target at 1.2690. With this drop, the price has broken 3 critical levels at once: 1. the rising trend line from Aug 31st (which was broken at 1.2860), 2. the falling trend line from Sep 1st top and 3. the massive support at 1.2777. This has shifted the short & medium terms’ technical outlook to the negative territory! But on the other hand, after the big drop, chances of seeing a correction before resuming the journey south are massive.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound dropped from the very same area which stopped it on Sep 1st, the all important resistance 1.5480/90. It fell to break the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5442, and successfully and accurately reaching our suggested target 1.5349, stopping only 5 pips below it. Today, we expect more of the same, and we expect a serious break of the support at 1.5349, resulting in a continuation of the drop from the massive 1.5490! if the price manages to do so, we will be expecting another episode of “the drop” series, a lot like yesterday’s. This drop will target 1.5262 at the very least, and at a later time 1.5151.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

We wondered in yesterday’s report, if the Dollar was able to survive after reaching critical levels at 1.2920 for the EURUSD, and 1.5490 for the GBPUSD. The answer to our wondering was “Yes we can”. Although the price did not reach far enough to break yesterday’s resistance or support, but it fell heavily during the Asian session. Yesterday’s rise was halted accurately at the resistance we specified 1.2920, and only 4 pips below it, confirming its massive importance. Then, we dropped to 1.2786, before bouncing once again above 1.28. With this drop, the Euro has broken 2 important trend lines on the hourly charts: the rising trend line from Aug 31st (which was broken at 1.2860), and then the falling trend line from Sep 1st top.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound jumped after the market open and went back to test the important resistance area 1.5480/90, which was tested on the first day of this month, and dropped from there with more than 100 pips at that time. This area is formed between the short term Fibonacci 61.8% level at 1.5480, and Sep 1st high. Will the price break it or will it frustrate it again just like it did 5 days ago? We strongly believe that the reaction from this area is the single most important thing that will determine the direction for the next few hours. If we break it (And here we prefer a break of the top of the area at 1.5490, not the Fibo level at 1.5480), the price will jump to 1.5565, and may be later to 1.5669.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro benefited from the US jobs report to approach 1.29 on Friday, and penetrated it after the market opened again last night. It seems like the Euro is targeting the top of the rising hourly channel which is illustrated on the attached chart. This top is at 1.2920, which is also Aug 18th high. When we take look at the hourly chart, we can spot an interesting support at 1.2777. This support is formed by Aug 27th high, and on Thursday, the price stopped 3 pips below it during the Asian session and 2 pips above it during the European sessions, which adds to its importance. Moreover, the rising trend line from Aug 31st low is now at 1.2837, providing the most important short term support. So, we will be in a neutral zone between 1.2920 & 1.2837, waiting for a break!

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The moment the Pound broke 1.5441 on Monday, this pair has left the "neutral zone" which we said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect the Pound to dive. But after more than 240 pips down from yesterday's top, the short term correction we are seeing now is (As we said yesterday) no surprise, with a condition of staying below 1.5480. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction, before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. And now that we have tested 1.5480, we should wait and see what will the price do with it! Breaking this important level (in case it happens) can change the outlook dramatically! Short term support is at 1.5395, which was tested earlier this morning.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

For the first time in 11 days the Euro reached 1.28, penetrating the resistance in yesterday's report 1.2792, declaring that it refuses to give up. However, the rise stopped just before our target 1.2871, and the pair consolidated around 1.28 without getting very far from it, which keeps the hopes of more upside activity alive. Looking at the hourly chart, we see an obvious horizontal support at last week's high 1.2777. The drop in the Asian session stopped only 3 pips above it, to give it more importance. If we hold above this level, the current bounce is expected to add more gains. But if broken, the Euro will gradually give up the latest gains, and will drop to 1.2676 first, and at a later time to 1.2550.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5405, and dropped exactly as expected to reach 1.5326, which was not enough to meet our suggested target which was pips below 1.53. With this break this pair has left the “neutral zone” which we said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect the Pound to dive. But after more than 240 pips down from yesterday’s top, the price is subject to a short term correction, with a condition of staying below 1.5480. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction, before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. Short term support is at 1.5382, which we are trading just above as this report is prepared.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Dollar/Yen traded below the 84 level for a short while, then jumped to around 84.60 and consolidated above 84. This is probably just a short break, and once it is over, we expect the Yen’s strength to continue, and we believe we will see levels below 83.58 on the short term. We have noticed an ideal (Dark Cloud Cover) candle pattern on the daily chart (please refer to the attached chart), and this is a well known bearish pattern which promises more excitement as we drop lower & lower, especially after the BoJ disappointing the markets yesterday, and the “Japs” saying that they are “watching the currency movement closely”!

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Monday’s headline for the EURUSD was “Slowly rising, signaling weakness”, and the Euro listened, and kept on falling from the weekly open, losing more than 140 pips from yesterday’s Asian session high. And with this drop, the pair broke our support 1.2643 only to disappoint and drop less than 20 pips below it. But the surprise came yesterday just after the NY open, when the Euro bounced and jumped from its 5-day low at 1.2624, to 1.2741. This surprising jump could mean that the single currency has not given up yet, and that it will try to overcome a negative outlook. Short term resistance is at 1.2792, and breaking it will mean that it is able of achieving more games. The targets will be 1.2871 & 1.2959.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Early this morning, the Pound broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.5441, after holding above it all day yesterday. With this break this pair has left the “neutral zone” which we said is between 1.5587 & 1.5441. Therefore, it is only logical now to expect the Pound to dive. But after more than 150 pips down from yesterday’s top, the price is subject to a short term correction, with a condition of staying below 1.5510. The Pound is notorious for breaking, then moving in the other direction, before moving in the right direction smoothly and strongly. Short term support is at 1.5405, which we are trading just above as this report is prepared. If broken, the Pound will continue to fall, passing by 1.53 areas swiftly, and target 1.5293 & 1.5224.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Although it came close to the 86 level after this week’s open, reaching a 9-day high, Dollar/Yen came back down in the midst of the disappointment of the BoJ yesterday. The Yen is back in the driver’s seat, and it will drive this pair lower again. The support specified in yesterday’s report at 84.77 was broken, and the price dropped to 84.11 so far. We expect the Yen’s strength to continue, and we believe we will see levels below 83.58 on the short term.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Yesterday’s headline for the EURUSD was “Slowly rising, signaling weakness”, and the Euro listened, and kept on falling from the weekly open, losing more than 130 pips from its Asian session high. And with this drop, the pair broke our support 1.2675 and dropped more than 40 pips below it so far. This break, even though did not have immediate results, will destroy the Euro on the short term, and probably harm it on the medium term as well. The reason we believe so is that, this break in specific is the single most important technical factor in classifying the rise from 1.2586 as purely corrective. Therefore, we expect the pair to lose ground, and start to drop with targets below last Tuesday’s bottom.

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Pound dropped modestly on Friday, reaching 1.5441 before consolidating, and closing, above 1.55. Although the bounce we have seen from last week’s low is still small relatively to the drop if followed, and although this bounce did not make it to the first Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%, we believe that it has a chance as long as it holds above 1.5441. The Pound is required to hold above this level, and then shoot up to test the resistance 1.5587. We do not recommend taking sides before the price leaves this “neutral zone” we see between 1.5441 & 1.5587. Therefore, today will be very significant for determining the next phase’s direction. And we will be before two scenarios: first, a break of 1.5441, in this case the rise from 1.5370 will be purely a correction.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen has tested (and surpassed) the falling trend line from Jun 4th top, which we talked about in Friday’s report, and said that it is at 85.28. Then it closed very close to it at 85.21. Although it came close to the 86 level after this week’s open, reaching a 9-day high, it came back down in the midst of the disappointment of the BoJ this morning. If we break this line decisively, the downtrend which started on June 4th will be over, and the Dollar will be ready to takeoff. The “verbal intervention” last week may and may not be the reason for this 200+ pips bounce after reaching a 15-year low, but technically breaking this line means a lot regardless of the Japanese authorities’ position.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro reached a new weekly high on Friday at 1.2777, before retreating around 50 pips by the closing time. With this, the Euro continues to rise slowly, without being able to create a reaction that can be compared to the massive drop from 1.3332. This slow upside activity is actually a sign of weakness, and the rise look pretty corrective. And unless the Euro moves clearly up today, things will become hard for the single currency, and this will leave room for the Dollar to take over. Short term most important support is provided by the rising trend line from last week’s low, which is currently at 1.2675. If broken, the Euro will start to lose ground, and will probably drop hard to 1.2550, and may be at a later time to the all important 1.2432.




Check out More news from Telecom Sector :: Pharmaceutical Sector :: Auto Sector :: Infrastructure :: Real Estate


Syndicate content