Munther T Marji

GBP USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

At an early hour this morning, the Pound broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.5522, breaking with it the falling trend line from this year’s high. Earlier, the pair broke the rising beautiful trend line from June 8th bottom, breaking with it the short term rising trend. Today’s jump has brought things back to complete chaos, since it was a “move-up” after breaking a 2.5 month old rising trend line! This may indicate that the Pound is on the way to retest that line at the very important 1.5757. Short term resistance is at 1.5600, if broken, the price will start rising with the objective of testing a very important level: 1.5757. If this resistance is broken, the short term uptrend & medium term uptrend will be revived, with a first target at 1.5860.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar jumped more than 120 pips from its 15-year low which it hit on Tuesday at 83.58, reflecting a “fear” of what the BoJ might do! In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, which we expected, from the very beginning, that it will dive below 84.81. Let’s leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro traded violently yesterday, breaking both the support & resistance we specified in yesterday’s report without reaching any of the targets in both cases. These “nervous” moves are definitely a cause of frustration for us, we hope for an end of such price activity soon, since they mean nothing technically. Looking at the daily chart, we can see signs of a reversal, on top of which is the (Inverted Hammer) pattern, which appears twice. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. And as we reach Fibonacci 50% for this massive move at 1.2604, we should not neglect the possibility that the correction might me over after reaching such an important target.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen did not break the support or the resistance specified in Friday’s report. It traded in a very dull range of almost 55 pips, and we are still waiting for a break bringing some excitement to this pair. Let’s leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 85.80. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 85.80 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. The support is provided by an important intraday support at 85.18.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

As expected, the Euro landed hard after breaking the support we specified in Friday’s report 1.2791, dropping more than 125 pips, and stopping only 3 pips before meeting our target @ 1.2660. With this new extension to the medium term drop from 1.3332, the size of this drop has become enormous, and cannot be ignored. Last week, we suggested a wave count with 5 complete waves up from 1.1875. But, until this moment, we have not reached but only the first Fibonacci retracement level for the 5-wave move at 1.2775. Therefore, in spite of the size of this drop, we highly doubt that it has shown all its cards. We believe this drop is capable of reaching Fibonacci 50% at least, or even go lower than that.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 85.35, and dropped as expected to stop a few steps before our suggested target. Let’s leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro’s traded relatively sideway, which was deeply frustrating. It tried to break the trend line we have been watching for the whole week, but it was bouncing back above 1.28 every time. Moreover, it broke our resistance 1.2867, without being able to reach the upside target. Yesterday’s trading was very frustrated to us, because we were waiting eagerly for a massive move after the price has finally touched the rising trend line from Jul 6th bottom.

We were expecting a major one-way move after this “meeting” between the price and the all important trend line, whether broken or not, we were expecting a serious movement away from this line, which unfortunately did not happen yesterday!

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Boredom is back! Boredom is here again! As we have seen in previous periods this year, the Dollar/Yen is back to trading in very tight ranges, it did not break any of the levels specified in yesterday's report. It approached 85 but failed to make a break, it also stayed the whole time below the resistance 86.21. Let's leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is running currently at 86.06. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend line & the importance it provides.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro's bounce from the bottom it reached shortly after the weekly open at 1.2733, halted yesterday at 1.2920. Such a rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping, and now reaching, another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was tested accurately on Monday, is running now at 1.2793, and it was touched and slightly surpassed during the Asian session, with the price bottoming at 1.2781.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro went on with its bounce from the bottom it reached shortly after the weekly open 1.2733, and scored a high at 1.2914, before dropping to the support we specified in yesterday's report 1.2822 down to the pip. Such a rebound is considered very "modest" comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was tested accurately on Monday, is at 1.2802.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Let’s leave the daily & weekly charts we have been obsessed with lately, and just focus on the hourly chart. We can see that there is a very exciting trend line, dropping from June 4th top. This line is almost at 86.21: the resistance which the price tried to break on Friday, but left it alone shortly after that. Therefore, all of our attention is at the exciting trend lien & the importance it provides. As long as we are trading below this line, the downtrend will be ok, but if we break the resistance 86.21 we will shoot up targeting 87.00 and may be 87.70. Where if we go back to trade below the support 85.00, there will be nothing stopping the price from reaching our awaited target 83.85, and may be at a later time we will see 82.65 as well.

Support:

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

As the new week started, The Euro consolidated just below Friday’s low, reaching 1.2733 before rebounding fast to 1.2869. Such a rebound is considered very “modest” comparing to the drop it followed, which came very close to 600 pips! We can clearly see that we have not even reached the first Fibonacci level 38.2%. Technically, the most important event was dropping to another important trend line, which is the rising trend line from June 7th low (please refer to the attached chart). This line which was tested accurately yesterday, is at 1.2759. But before we think about it, there is another support worth mentioning which is 1.2822.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen broke both the support and resistance specified in yesterday’s report without being able to create massive moves in both cases. Therefore, and although we believe the possibilities of a rising correction are higher now, we do not see a lot of changes to the technical outlook. The Dollar/Yen had previously reached our main target of this falling wave, which we talked about for the last 2 weeks: a drop below 84.81 & a new 15-year low, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2869, and dropped as expected, “almost” reaching the first suggested target 1.2775, as it stopped just 5 pips before it, to move 550 pips away from last Friday’s “Jobs-report-top”. We have commented on the retest case which took place after the Fed’s statement Tuesday evening by saying: “it is a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday’s report at 85.16, and dropped to 84.70 which is a 15-year low not seen since June 1995! Later, it consolidated above 85, and corrected the drop up to short term Fibonacci

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.3032, and dropped as expected, reaching both suggested targets 1.2961 & 1.2875 with complete success, to move 400 pips away from last Friday’s “Jobs-report-top”. We have commented on the retest case which took place after the Fed’s statement Tuesday evening by saying: “it is a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in yesterday’s report at 85.78, and dropped to 85.16, approaching this year’s low of 85.00 which we have seen on Friday. However, the price consolidated above 85, and corrected the drop up to 85.45. With this, we see a continuation of the correction from Friday’s low, after hitting another, lower target for the downward wave we have been talking about for weeks, , but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.3133, and dropped as expected, only to stop at 1.3070, without reaching the suggested target. Then (which is a lot more important), the price jumped in the post-Fed chaos to 1.3226 (7 pips below our resistance), testing the previously broken trend line, accurately (please refer to the attached chart). If it a well known technical principle that such an accurate retest confirms the break it followed, and the new direction, which is down in this case. Looking at the attached chart, we can see that: 1. the rising trend line was broken decisively and 2. the price retested this line in an accurate fashion. These are obvious indication of a falling trend.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen broke the support specified in Friday’s report 85.74, and dropped to a new yearly low at 85, only 19 pips above the 15 year low we have seen in November 09! With this, the falling wave has successfully managed to reach yet another target, but what are the next targets? In the attached chart, which is a weekly one, we can see the falling channel from Sep 07 top. Although the bottom of this channel is very far away, and is just above 74, but there is an interesting trend line inside it, combining the monthly lows of Dec 08, Jan & Nov 09. This line is around 82.65 currently, providing us with a perfect target for this dropping wave, since we still expect, as we did before, that it will dive below 84.81.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 1.3212, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.3311, reaching the highest level in more the 3 month in the Dollar-aftermath which followed the coming out of the US monthly employment report. Technically, what is really important is that we came close on Friday to a very important trend line, and we are still around it: the trend line rising from June 29th low on hourly the chart, which is running at 1.3194. Therefore, we should keep eyes & mind open today, and consider all scenarios, and keep separate trading plans ready. If we test the above mentioned trend line, it will be the single most important technical to start the week with.




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