Munther T Marji

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2214, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2295 with stunning accuracy (yesterday’s high was 1.2296). After that, the single currency dropped for more than 100 pips so far, which confirms what we have said that we should not confuse this actual trend break and the change in direction for the short term, with the persisting downtrend for the medium term which is still going strong. This retreat, from a well known resistance & a target area means that the “hot” rise for the Euro is going cold! If we break the short term support 1.2187, the Euro will probably give up the latest gains.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Dollar/Yen broke the resistance specified in Friday’s report 91.65, but it barely made it to 92 (the high at the moment of preparing this report is exactly 92.00), which makes us wonder if we will see results to this break. We are full of hope to see some excitement today, as we are betting on the Dollar to capitalize on the break of the falling trend line from last week’s high. And if it breaks the resistance 91.91, that would be probable, and we would be looking forward to reach the 92.56 & 93.62 targets. Having said that, the possibility of a drop remains, but it now needs a break of the support 91.60. If we do, we will target a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention for the past 3 days. This level is the support at 90.65.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the resistance 1.2127 which we said that it “will be very positive for the short term”, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2176, confirming the “break of the downtrend” which we talked about on Friday. There is no doubt that the Euro has broken the trend, but that is only for the short term. We should not confuse this actual trend break and the change in direction for the short term, which the persisting downtrend for the medium term which is still going strong. This break has passed the first challenge on Friday by breaking 1.2127, but it is invited to another equally important challenge at 1.2214 today. If the Euro is to continue with its rise, it should break this resistance and should not stop at or near it.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen traded below 92.14 for the whole past 24- hours, and did not touch this important resistance. It also dropped to break the support specified in yesterday’s report 91.54, only to settle for 91.23. This very limited action, has postponed the excitement, hopefully for no longer than today, especially after a critical level has appeared this morning, catching all of our attention. This level is the support at 90.52. The reasons which makes this level a shining star standing out is that it combines the rising trend line from May 20th, with June 1st low, giving this level a double importance. But, before we can test this level, we need to break the intraday support 91.11. And if we do, we will drop to test this very important (and hopefully very exciting) level.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro fluctuated and penetrated both the support & the resistance specified in yesterday’s report without being able to reach any of the suggested targets in both cases. This behavior enhances our hypothesis that we are in a wave 4 of a 5-wave decline, since its known in (The Wave Principle) that wave 4 price action appears to be random while this wave is developing, just as it is the case for wave B as well. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen held above the support specified in yesterday’s report 90.90 (yesterday’s low was 90.96), and it rose to break the resistance 91.59, and stopped before the suggested target 92.15 with only 8 pips! This surely indicates the importance of this level, which we will adjust today with a single pip to 92.14. This resistance will be in the center of our attention. On the other hand, the support is at 91.54, provided by the rising trend line from 90.96 on the hourly chart. If the price manages to hold above this support, we believe in its ability to test Friday’s top and the important 92.95, if not today, then later in the week.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

With astonishing accuracy, the Euro’s drop stopped at the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.1911, down to the pip! And then tried to reach 1.20, but it settled for 1.1989. Breaking below 1.20 on Friday has opened the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high.

Commodity Outlook for Crude Oil by KediaCommodity

Crude OilCrude oil slumped as the dollar strengthened and a lower-than-expected monthly growth in US non-farm payrolls slightly dampened optimism about the nation's economic recovery. China's main ports imported 17.29 million tonnes of crude oil in May, or 4.07 million barrels per day, up 12.8 percent from a year earlier but down 7 percent from April. Now support for the crude is seen at 3351 and below could see a test of 3339. Resistance is now likely to be seen at 3387, a move above could see prices testing 3411.

Trading Ideas:

Crude trading range is 3339-3411.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen stopped just before 92.95 (Friday’s high was 92.87), and started to drop, drifting away from this new challenge which it’s obviously not ready for yet! The price then dropped, breaking the support specified in the report 92.22, and reaching the first suggested target 91.36 successfully. The current drop stopped just before the Fibonacci 50%for the short term at 90.90 (the low until the moment of preparing this report is 90.90). This indicates that this level is important for stetting the direction of the short term. If the price holds above this level we believe it can challenge Friday’s top, and the important resistance 92.95, if not today then later in the week.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

As expected, the Euro broke the support 1.2152, and successfully reached both suggested targets 1.2068 & 1.2000. The Euro fell below 1.20 for the first time since March 2006, but this drop was not a surprise to anyone, according to the negative technical outlook which we have adopted in the past days & weeks. Breaking below 1.20 opens the door for guessing the long term targets in these areas, the question now is where are these targets? In our opinion, we believe that there is one target, one point, which stands out of the crowd, and that is 1.1211, which will be our target for the next few weeks. The importance of this level is that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci for the whole move from the historical low to the historical high.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Finally, the Dollar/Yen reached the long awaited 91.84! But the surprise was that it broke it, easily, and managed to reach 92.34 (today's high until the moment of preparing this report). This break will improve the weak technical outlook on the short term. But reaching the top of rising trend channel on the hourly & 4-hours charts indicates that the Dollar will face difficulties in its struggle to achieve more gains (please refer to the attached chart).

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

In what may be considered some kind of a surprise, the Euro broke the falling channel on the hourly & 4-hour charts at 1.2270 during the Asian session! This break could cause a lot of excitement before the weekend. It is only logical to expect more rise after this break.

But we will not put our bets on it, before breaking the last top inside the broken channel, which was 1.2351. This is for the short term, but for the medium term, the Euro will stay weak until it breaks 1.2456 in a real and decisive way. So, today's resistance is at 1.2351, and only after a break here we would expect a continuation of the rising move. If this break happens, the first target will be a test of the single most important resistance for the time being 1.2456.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro dropped strongly, as it broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2283, and successfully reached the first suggested target 1.2142, and a new cycle low(just as expected) at 1.2110, which is a level not seen since 2006! We expressed confidence in this scenario in yesterday’s report, when we said “we still believe that the drop to a new cycle low below 1.2142 is only a matter of time”. And even after this “dive”, we still believe that the Euro is ready to dive even more, and we still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2456! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen came closer than ever to the all important resistance 91.84, stopping only 8 pips below it, which could be considered as a test of some sort! But we still believe that there is a chance to come even closer to this important level on the short term, and that we could actually “touch” it before we drop! But in order for it to hold to these chances, the price should hold above the 91.24 support, which is provided by the rising trend line on intraday charts. And although we notice that this is an important level, the resistance 91.84 is still the most important level for this pair right now! It is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen retreated a little bit, and consolidated around 91, but we still believe that we could see the price targeting the most important resistance for now: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 91.84. But in order for it to hold to these chances, the price should hold above the 90.87 support, and not to start drifting lower and away from 91! The resistance 91.84 is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. Support is at 90.87, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.26 then to the very important 89.67.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro traded below the resistance specified in yesterday’s report 1.2333 for the whole 24 hours since the issuance of yesterday’s report. It did not break it, only to trade in a narrow range, which has postponed the drop but did not delete its possibility. We still believe that the Euro is ready to dive, and we still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2472! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly!

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Dollar/Yen reached 91.59 after the open of the new week, and we could see the price targeting the most important resistance for now: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term at 91.84, which is the separating level between a positive & a negative medium term outlook. If price stops at or around 91.84, the odds of going back down will be enormous, and a top around here could provide us with a wonderful chance to sell for medium term. But if broken, we will see a strong jump to 92.95 and may be 93.65. Support is at 90.95, and if broken, the price will retreat to 90.26 then to the very important 89.67. We still believe that 91.84 is still the most important medium term resistance for now, while the medium term support is at 89.67.

Support:

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro tried to approach the all important resistance 1.2472, but it topped at 1.2451, and then it went back to drop again, breaking the rising trend line on the hourly chart. We still believe that the most important resistance is Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2472! We do not see any reason to change our negative technical outlook for as long as the price is below it. And since that the price has touched the channel top, and came close to Fibonacci then it started to fall, then the negative outlook is still here, strongly! As for the short term the support is at 1.2283, and breaking it will drag the Euro to the important 1.2152 then to a new cycle low at 1.2068.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Although the price approached our resistance 90.74, and stopped only 9 pips below it, we have seen nothing but more semi-horizontal movement, making us gradually lose hope to feel some excitement coming from this boring pair! But, there is a slowly rising channel on the hourly chart, which contained all the previous days’ shallow moves. The channel’s top is just above short term 38.2% Fibonacci level at 90.74, making this resistance the most important for now. The bottom of this channel is at the well known support 89.56. Today’s main levels are support 90.09 & resistance 90.74, we can only hope to see some action upon a break of one of them.

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro broke the support specified in yesterday’s report 1.2256, and fell afterwards by 104 pips, only to stop before our suggested target & the 4-year low 1.2142. And after finding a bottom at 1.2152, the price bounced almost 150 pips in 8 only hours! This strong bounce, did not break any important levels (so far), to the degree that we can say that the negative technical outlook has changed. When analyzing the 4-hour chart, we can see a beautiful channel, with the price trading in the middle of it at the moment. We can also see that the whole rising move from 1.2152 was in the middle of this channel, and it did not touch or even approach the top or the bottom of the channel. Today, we will favor Fibonacci 61.8% over the top of this channel.




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