March WPI inflation expected at 6.4-6.6%

March WPI inflation expected at 6.4-6.6%The soon to be announced wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of March is widely expected to in the range of 6.4 per cent to 6.6 per cent, down from 6.84 per cent in February.

The WPI has largely been declining since November last year. However, it rose from 6.62 per cent in January to 6.84 per cent in February.

Recently announced consumer price index (CPI) provided a hint that food inflation in the month of March was slower than the in the previous month. In March, prices are expected to have risen by just 0.2 per cent, as compared with
0.7 per cent rise in the month of February.

Retail inflation, which is also called annual CPI inflation, slipped from 10.91 per cent to 10.39 per cent in March; while food inflation slowed from 13.73 per cent in February to 12.42 in March. Fuel inflation moderated to 8.3 per cent.

But, the retail inflation is still much higher that the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) comfort level.

Abheek Barua, chief economist at HDFC Bank, said, "CPI is still at an elevated level. Unless CPI comes down to 8%, it is nowhere near the comfort zone."

Speaking on the topic, Barua added that the RBI would focus on slow growth and declining core inflation in its upcoming monetary policy review. But, high CPI and CAD will continue posing a big risk to a rate cut.

Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at CARE Ratings, also said that food inflation jump in the coming months as upcoming general elections might lead to higher minimum support price for food grains, plus decontrol of diesel prices could push transportation costs up.