Islamabad - Only time will tell whether the death of top militant leader Baitullah Mehsud leads to an improvement of the security situation in Pakistan. But one thing is quite clear: it will have little impact on Islamic insurgency in Afghanistan.

Previously a bodybuilder and smuggler, Mehsud died in a US drone attack in north-western Pakistan on Wednesday. Local intelligence officials claim the attack got an assist with Pakistani information about his whereabouts.

Despite his allegiance to Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Omar, Mehsud was mainly focused on attacking government and civilian targets inside Pakistan, sending only a few fighters from his militia - believed to be up to 20,000 strong - and several squads of suicide bombers to Afghanistan.

That might have been the reason that dozens of strikes by CIA operated pilotless aircraft spared him until recently, when Washington realized that his terrorist acts could destabilize Pakistan, a key ally in the fight against terrorism.

In March, the US State Department announced a 5-million-dollar bounty on his head.

"Baitullah, whether dead or alive, is not going to bring about even a little change in the situation in Afghanistan, his contribution to ongoing militancy there was very limited," said Pakistan's former ambassador in Afghanistan, Rustam Shah Mohmand.

However, Mehsud did lead Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organization of more than a dozen militant outfits in Pakistan.

The group did not have a proper organizational structure like that Taliban have in Afghanistan. Most of the subunits operated independently, with Mehsud having little influence over their actions.

Powerful commanders like Mullah Nazir, who controls more than half of the territory in South Waziristan, and Hafiz Gul Bahadur in the neighbouring North Waziristan have strongly opposed his policy of attacking Pakistani security forces.

"It's true that the Taliban movement in Pakistan will be weakened in the absence of a powerful personality like Mehsud, but he is not the main guy," said Saleem Safi, a journalist who has covered the conflict in Pakistan and Afghanistan for 15 years.

Sirajuddin Haqqani and Ustad Yasir are considered to be the actual driving forces in Pakitan's tribal belt. Haqqani is the son of veteran Afghan mujahid Jalaludin Haqqani, while Yasir is the right- hand man of Mullah Omar.

"They united various Taliban groups and brought them under the leadership of Baitullah Mehsud and they will keep them united after Baitullah's death," added Safi.

Besides, al-Qaeda, which has an enormous presence in Pakistan's rugged, mountainous tribal region, will also exert its influence to keep Taliban concentrated on their main aim - to turn Afghanistan into a graveyard for US forces, much as fighters did to Soviet forces in the 1980s.

"Baitullah was not really a big thing. Media just exaggerated what he was capable of," said Mohmand.

The little difference that Mehsud's death can make is inside Pakistan, which has been hit hard by 157 suicide attacks since 2007, most of them claimed by his group.

His successor might learn a lesson: that the best strategy for survival is to understand Pakistan's distinction between good and bad Taliban - the good Taliban who attack international forces in Afghanistan and bad ones who deviate from their focus and find targets in Pakistan.

Doing so would give Pakistan a reason to avoid a major offensive against Mehsud's group in South Waziristan, a battle that could drag in other Taliban groups still considered "good Taliban."

The Absence of Mehsud might lead to friction between his deputies - frictions the warlord managed to suppress. If they resurface, it might give Pakistani intelligence a good opportunity to infiltrate and install a leader that is more interested in resistance against "invaders" in Afghanistan.

There are three main contenders to fill the gap left by Mehsud.

The first is Hakimullah Mehsud, an extended relative, and a commander of about 8,000 fighters. He is hampered by the fact that he is disliked by Tariq, another of Baitullah's senior commanders. Fighters loyal to the two men have previously clashed in the tribal district of Orakzai.

The other contenders are: Wali-ur-Rehman, Baitullah's first cousin and deputy; and Azmatullah, another powerful commander.

For the moment, however, Pakistan fears retaliatory attacks by Mehsud's loyalists. The military on Friday moved hundreds of its troops from Dera Ismail Khan to South Waziristan after militants attacked a military post with dozens of rockets.(dpa)