Wellington  - New Zealand's recession may have ended and unemployment should be lower than expected, according to the Treasury's latest monthly economic indicators released Monday.

The department said that New Zealand would benefit from an improved global economic outlook, while the nation's higher net migration and increasing business and consumer confidence meant its recovery would be stronger than others.

Treasury said such "signs of renewed growth" would likely result in a lower peak in the unemployment rate, probably to around 7.5 per cent next year, compared with a peak of 8 per cent in earlier forecasts.

Migration during July added 2,500 people to New Zealand's population. This took net migration for the 12 months through July 2009 to 14,500, up from 5,200 a year earlier.

The Treasury pointed to the National Bank's business outlook survey in August, which showed another surge in reported consumer confidence, with 34 per cent of respondents expecting better economic conditions over the next 12 months, up 16 percentage points from July.

There were slight increases in monthly retail sales and in house prices.

Forecasters are awaiting the monthly release of New Zeland's economic indicators, as the data is the most comprehensive ahead of The Reserve Bank's is due to decide on Thursday whether to adjust the official cash rate. (dpa)