Obama Ahead, But Presidential Race Still ‘Tight’
Submitted by John Richburg on Mon, 09/29/2008 - 08:00
Daily polls tracking the US presidential elections indicate a small, yet steady, rise of Democrat Barack Obama vis-à-vis his Republican rival, John McCain. In fact, it appears that issues related to the economy, along with questions among some conservatives about Sarah Palin, are helping the Democrats.
McCain’s reaction to the economic crisis - initially calling the fundamentals of the economy ‘strong’, then saying the crisis was so bad he needed to suspend his campaign, and even calling for a postponement of the first presidential debate - reinforced the notion that he could be impulsive and erratic. Moreover, Sarah Palin, who continues to energize the Republican campaign, in her recent interview on CBS, failed to exhibit substantial grasp of a variety of issues.
Pollsters opine that Obama, now up by as many as six or seven points, has gained ground chiefly because the vital independent voters are shifting in his favor. According to pollster John Zogby, “There are still a substantial number of independents that are undecided, principally independent women. But as a group, they’ve begun to swing over to Obama, but not in large enough numbers yet to close the deal.”
Friday night’s debate in Oxford, Mississippi, is another factor that has helped Obama. A number of post-debate polls show that most viewers thought Obama did a ‘better job’. The latest USA Today/Gallup Poll shows that 46% viewers backed Obama, compared to 34% who favored McCain. When the debate-watchers were asked which candidate offered better proposals for change to solve the country’s problems, Obama scored fairly high against McCain - 52%-35%.
In the opinion of Darrell West, the director of governance studies at the Brookings Institution, Washington, “The economy is the issue that looks like it’s going to dictate this election. And Obama won those parts of the debate that he needed to win.”
“Obama showed that he belonged there, he was on equal footing with the 72-year old war hero,” says Zogby. “And there were no mistakes, no runs, no hits, no errors – which to me meant that Obama won on points.”
However, pollsters still opine that the ‘race’ between both the candidates continues to remain tight and the dynamics can change, literally making it ‘go down to the wire’ - the tentative deal on an economic bailout package and how it’s finally resolved, could again change the course of the race.
