Protest vote in U.S. more likely to prevail when party expected to achieve landslide win: Study
Submitted by Jamie Williamson on Sat, 11/19/2011 - 09:22
Washington, Nov 19 : A protest vote in the United States is more likely to prevail during elections in which a party is expected to achieve a landslide victory, a new study has suggested.
According to the study conducted by the Juan March Foundation and Duke University in the US, moderate voters are more likely to cast a protest vote than those on the extreme left or extreme right of the political spectrum.
The expert explains that their theory can substantiated by current political situation in Spain "where many believe that the People''s Party (PP) will gain an absolute majority” but also expect Socialist Party (PSOE) to cast a protest vote against the PP.
"The protest vote is just a way of expressing discontent. In order for it to be effective, a lot more voters from your party need to vote for other. However, if there are enough people casting the protest vote, strategic changes need to be adopted or previously ignored political questions need to be faced,” co-author of the study, Daniel Kselman said.
"Protest voters show their unhappiness by voting for a party either more to the right or more to the left of the political spectrum than their preference in the hope that a rise in votes for the competition will encourage their own party to go in one direction or another,” he added.
The study created a model, which distinguished between "strategic voters", who vote for a party even though they dislike it but because their first choice has no chance of winning, and "protest voters", who vote for another party to ''punish them'' even though they have a chance of winning elections.
"Sometimes smaller parties begin to receive the majority of their support through protest votes. Consequently, when building up an independent following of their own, such support allows them in time to become significant and important political forces. Therefore, the protest vote could allow new parties to enter mainstream politics,” the study concluded. (ANI)
