Gregor Horvat

AUD/USD: More Weakness To Come?

AUD/USD: More Weakness To Come?The {{5AUD/USD}} has turned bearish from 0.9500. A decline is impulsive that also took out the trendline connected from 0.9206 which is important is for a change in trend.

That trendline then also turned into a resistance in wave (ii)/(b) pullback around 0.9455 from where price fell very close back to 0.9327 swing. We believe that third leg down is now underway with downside projections seen at 0.9270 followed by 0.9180.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

S&P500 Looking For New High Towards 1990-2000

{{166|S&P 500}} made a third leg down on Thursday that now already appears complete after a strong bounce through 1967 swing. A decline from the high now looks like a completed zigzag that can lift the prices back to all time highs. As such, we are bullish again on the S&P, and will be looking for a new high and towards 1990/2000 as long as 1944 support holds.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Gold: A Move Into 1320-1350 Region Before Turning Bearish

On {{8830|Gold}} we are tracking a big triangle placed in wave 4) for a while now which is still incomplete. Recently we have seen a completed wave D at 1240 so now we will focus on another three wave move, this time up in wave E that can retrace even more up to 1320/1350 zone where we will be looking for a bearish reversal signs.

Gold: A Move Into 1320-1350 Region Before Turning Bearish

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Gold: Recovery Ahead?

Gold-Recpvery-Ahead{{8830Gold}} rallied back to 1260 in the last 24 hours which now looks like a start of a new bigger recovery. In fact, decline from 1303 can be counted in five waves for completed wave (c) of D which means that it may be a time for a new three-leg rally back in wave E. If we are on the right track then price is now in wave (a).

AUD/USD: More Bearish Below 0.8925

AUD/USD: More Bearish Below 0.8925AUD/USD is once again trying to turn bearish from around 0.9080 area, where we think that wave (v) will complete wave C, final leg of running flat formation from mid-December.

Pair fell more than 100 pips from the highs, but we still need a decline beneath 0.8925 wave (iv) swing to confirm a bearish reversal.  In that case we would then be looking for a larger resumption of a downtrend back to January lows.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

GOLD: New High Towards 1280

GOLD: New High Towards 1280Gold found a support in the last few trading days at the lower side of a corrective channel, at 1237 where we see a completed three wave decline from the top, now labeled as wave (b).

As such, we suspect that new highs are underway with wave (c) that may complete a second zigzag around 1280.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

USD/CHF: Bullish Reversal

USD/CHF: Bullish ReversalUSD/CHF is moving nicely to the upside from 0.8800 region where we see signs of a completed bearish trend.  Notice that current rise is sharp that already moved beyond 0.9000 swing high so we assume that market is forming an impulsive recovery, now in subwave 3 of 1) testing some resistance area around 0.9060 from where we may see a corrective pullback in wave 4 back to 0.8980-0.9000 zone before uptrend resumes again.

USD/CHF 4h Elliott Wave Analysis USD/CHF Elliott Wave

USD/JPY: Be Aware Of Downside Or Sideways Price Action

USDThe USD/JPY has been trading nicely higher in December, but now it seems that this move is completed after latest sharp drop from around 105.45 and through the channel support line connected from 103.74 swing.

This break suggests that five wave rally up in 5 of 3) is finished and that price is now at early stages of a larger corrective retracement down in wave 4). As such, be aware of more downside or at least sideways price action.

Crude Oil Is Pointing Down Again

Crude Oil Is Pointing Down AgainCrude oil reversed sharply to the upside at the end of November, after five waves down completed an extended wave 3, which is typically the strongest wave in a five wave cycle.

As such, we assume that recent contra-trend reaction back to $100 per barrel was only a contra-trend movement; wave 4 that is part of an impulsive drop from 112.20.

Current reversal down from 100.80 appears to be very strong so maybe new leg down has already started. We suspect that crude oil will revesing 91.80 in the first couple of weeks of 2014.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

EUR/USD Looks For Bearish Reversal

We think that sharp decline from 1.3810 represents only first leg within larger decline, so move from 1.3623 should then unfold in corrective manner. We are talking about wave (ii)/(b) that may look for a reversal down from 1.3715-1.3740 region. Critical level remains at 1.3810 as wave (ii)/(b) must not retrace more than 100% compared to previous five wave fall.
EUR/USD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

EUR/USD Looks For Bearish Reversal

On the 4h chart below we can see that pair also took out the lower trend line of recent upward channel from November lows.

GBP/USD: In A Correction Within An Uptrend

GBP/USD: In A Correction Within An UptrendGBP/USD has turned lower in the last 24 hours from its highs, but despite some weakness we believe that larger trend is incomplete. We are tracking an impulsive rally from 1.5853 low, which means that recovery needs to be made by five subwaves. With that in mind we believe that current bearish leg represents only first part of corrective pause.

We are talking about wave (iv) pullback that could look for a support zone around 1.6290/1.6310 in the next few trading days and then send prices higher early next week into wave (v) towards 1.6550/1.6600 region.

USD Index: A Turning Point Around 80.00 Level?

USD Index: A Turning Point Around 80.00 Level?USD index fell to a new swing low, to 80.00 region where market could form a tradeble low for wave (B)/(2). The fact is that decline from the highs is looking corrective, a double zigzag, so sooner or later USD is expected to turn bullish.

Current leg down is probably part of a complex downward correction, wave C) in a second zigzag so bottom could be near.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

USD/JPY Back In Bullish Mode, Looking Towards 104

USD/JPY Back In Bullish Mode, Looking Towards 104USD/JPY accelerated nicely to the upside in the last few weeks after breaking above 100.60 swing high that represents a wave D) high in a triangle.

Usually when this high is broken it means that triangle is complete and that market is moving impulsively. With that said, we think that prices are in a red wave 3) of (5) moving up towards new highs.

USD/JPY is now in bullish move as long as pair trades above 99.50.

EUR/NZD: A Short Opportunity

EUR/NZD: A Short OpportunityOn EUR/NZD I see five waves up in leading diagonal followed by a five wave decline from 1.6840 which is first leg of minimum three wave retracement.

As such, wave (b) retracement back to 1.6590-1.6700 could be interesting for shorts in wave (c) down.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Brent Oil Looks For Correction Before Turning Higher

Brent Oil Looks For Correction Before Turning HigherBrent Oil: We don't track this market much, but We know that most of the time it should move similar to Crude oil.

However, this is not the case for the last few weeks (Brent was up, Crude down in November), so at this time each instrument should be tracked separately.

Remember; lets focus on what is actually happening, and not on what we think it should be happening! On Brent We see a wedge pattern to the upside, counted as a leading diagonal in wave A so we expect a deeper three wave retracement in B, back to 107-108 region before uptrend resume for wave C up.

Elliott Wave Forecast For GBP/USD

GBP/USD Could Face Resistance

The GBP/USD broke to a new high as expected after we identified end of a corrective retracement at 1.5850. As such, we are now tracking a new impulse leg up with can be wave C, final part of a double zigzag in wave E). If this is correct count then rally from July low is near completion. Ideally we will see a reversal down from around 1.64-1.66 region.

E-Mini S&P 500: Hits New Highs

S&P Futures are at new highs which has been expected after only three wave retracement back to 1774 last week, labeled as black wave iv. This black wave iv is part of a five wave rally which means that price is now in final stages of current impulse so correction could occur in this week.

This can happen from around current levels where wave v equals to wave i, or it can be from the second projected level 1825 (261.8% extension of wave i). A divergence on the RSI also suggests a coming reversal in price.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

EUR/USD Finally Turns Bearish

EUR/USD Finally Turns BearishEUR/USD has finally turned bearish after very complex and slow recovery from 1.3293 low. We believe this is a corrective move that is now showing signs of completion around 1.3576.

The reason is latest sharp decline through the lower support line of a corrective channel which is important break for a continuation in the direction of a trend, which is down.

We expect a revisit of 1.3293 in the next few days.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Elliott Wave Outlook: S&P Futures Reversed Higher, Oil Hit Lows

S&P Futures

S&P Futures reversed nicely higher on Friday from 1737 where we see a completed wave (c), third leg of a decline from 1773 which was an expanded flat formation. As such, we think that price is now back in bullish mode that could reach 1780 - 1800 in the next few days.



Oil is at the lows, so obviously corrective bounce has unfolded sooner than we thought. Now when we are looking at the whole wave structure from the past 30 days we see prices moving down in wave 5 that could be targeting 90-91 region in the next few sessions. Once this zone is met, be aware of a corrective bounce.



USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Suggests Lower Price

USD/JPY finally broke to the upside yesterday, above former swing high but rally has then stopped at 99.40 from where we have seen a sharp almost 200 pip fall. If we take a closer look now on whole rally from 96.55 then we can see that recovery has unfolded only in three legs which is bearish structure that is pointing now lower, back to 96.55, especially once lower support line of a corrective channel gives way. USDJPY Elliott Wave 4h

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