Forex Update

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The USD/JPY is still stuck around 100 as the highly-psychological level is proving to be as difficult to overcome as investors could have anticipated.

The surprisingly positive Core Machinery Orders coupled with Aso's aggressive stimulus package is countering the recent strength in America's economy.

Therefore, the USD/JPY finds itself at an important crossroads as our uptrend line reaches an inflection point with our 3rd tier downtrend line.

The importance of the moment is difficult to express since all of this year's progress made by the USD/JPY to tackle 100 is reaching a climactic point. Will the uptrend prevail or fall under the sword of the monstrous downtrend?

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The Cable is making vast strides to the upside, positioning itself for a breakout opportunity as it continues to bask in the glory of this month's all-around positive economic data from Britain. The GBP/USD is battling with our 2nd tier uptrend line as we speak.

If the currency pair can climb above April and February highs we could witness some large near-term gains as it looks to tackle the highly psychological 1.50 level.

The relative strength of the Pound is reflected in the freefall of the EUR/GBP. However, we wouldn't be surprised to see the EUR/GBP find some solid near-term support, meaning that if the GBP/USD does break out, the rally could experience some profit-taking relatively quickly.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

Though yesterday's rally in the EUR/USD made some interesting strides by edging above 4/9 highs and our 1st tier downtrend line, investors are taking profits Tuesday. The volume was still light yesterday due to the Easter holiday and a lack of economic data.

However, we could see currencies come back to life today with the U. S. releasing retail sales and PPI. Even though the EUR/GBP could experience more near-term losses, it appears the currency pair should find some support soon.

Therefore, the EUR/USD may experience considerable strength around our 1st tier uptrend line and 1.3192 support, if the currency pair should reach this level.

Gold Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

Gold climbed back to retest the highly psychological $900/oz level as anticipated. The rally is falling short with the precious metal experiencing consolidation.

Though gold managed to get past our 1st tier downtrend line, our 2nd tier isn't far away. In our eyes, gold broke the uptrend's back on April 2nd.

Therefore, the precious metal would need to accomplish some incredible fundamental feats to reinstate the uptrend.

Hence, we view the precious metal's recent rally as a healthy retest of a critical, defeated psychological support. We wouldn't be surprised to see the negative correlation with U. S. equities to come into full swing with the S&P futures performing well.

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

Crude futures have experienced some eye-popping volatility over the last couple sessions, fluttering between our trend lines. The indecisive movements reflect investor uncertainty concerning the economy as a whole.

While investors are not willing to give up on the uptrend, the downtrend is still sitting in the driver's seat with investors unwilling to commit above our 2nd tier downtrend line.

The highly psychological $50/bbl area continues to play a lead role as prices are gravitating here. Naturally, the key driving force behind the demand structure of crude is the overall health of the U. S. economy.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The S&P futures are reversing course premarket on Tuesday after the U. S. released disappointing PPI and Retail Sales data points. The PPI numbers show the collapse in consumption resulting from the economic downturn is taking its toll on producer prices.

As a result, the fear of deflation is creeping back into the picture, signaling the improvement in PPI over the past two months may have just been a head-fake.

The Retail Sales numbers send the same signal, which raises concern that the concept of an economic recovery as a whole may be a head-fake.

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