Rmseed on NCDEX settled down -0.68% at 3953 tracking weakness in spot demand on higher stockpiles in local mandis. New mustard seed arrivals across the country totaled at 535,000 bags as compared to 350,000 in the previous session and crop quality is better than last year. India is expected to produce around 6.5-7 million tonnes (mt) of rape mustard seeds in 2016-17 as compared to 5.8 mt produced in 2015-16 due to higher acreage and improving productivity. The carry-forward stock from the previous season was around 0.15 mt. The Ministry of Agriculture expects 8.5 mt of mustard seeds to be produced in the current rabi season against 6.8 mt a year ago, as per its 4th advanced estimates. Higher price levels seen before sowing, favourable weather and a hike of over 10.4 per cent in MSP to Rs. 3,700/Q (including Rs. 100 bonus) explain the increase in acreage by over 9 per cent to 7.05 million hectares. Initial estimates show that arrivals this year are going to be better than last year. Increasing arrivals will put downward pressure and a price correction is likely. The demand for Indian mustard meal in the international market is down by 44 per cent for the FY 2016-17 (April-December) compared with the same period last year, and the export in December has been the lowest in the current financial year, down 86 per cent (YoY). Technically market is under fresh selling as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 12.68% to settled at 41850 while prices down -27 rupees, now Rmseed is getting support at 3923 and below same could see a test of 3892 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 3993, a move above could see prices testing 4032.

Trading Ideas:

# Rmseed trading range for the day is 3892-4032.

# Mustard seed dropped tracking weakness in spot demand on higher stockpiles in local mandis.

# New mustard seed arrivals across the country totaled at 535,000 bags as compared to 350,000 in the previous session.

# NCDEX accredited warehouses mustard seed stocks gained by 1373 tonnes to 3596 tonnes.

# In Alwar spot market in Rajasthan the prices remains unchanged at0 Rupees to end at 3922 Rupees per 100 kg.