Crude Price Testing November Trend-Line; Break Opens Door For $83

Oil fell sharply lower in February, making an overlap with 89.68 level. This invalidated our previous impulsive bullish count. As such, if recovery from November 2012 low was not impulsive, then it can be only be corrective on account of three wave movement, labeled as (a)-(b)-(c) up to 98 zone.

The interesting thing is that decline from 98 was also in three waves with a 90.27 overlap. This was probably wave X, part of a double zig-zag in red wave B) that now appears complete around 97.80, after the latest sharp decline towards the lower side of a corrective channel. We expect more weakness from here, ideally towards the 83.00 zone.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com