The Euro’s traded relatively sideway, which was deeply frustrating. It tried to break the trend line we have been watching for the whole week, but it was bouncing back above 1.28 every time. Moreover, it broke our resistance 1.2867, without being able to reach the upside target. Yesterday’s trading was very frustrated to us, because we were waiting eagerly for a massive move after the price has finally touched the rising trend line from Jul 6th bottom.

We were expecting a major one-way move after this “meeting” between the price and the all important trend line, whether broken or not, we were expecting a serious movement away from this line, which unfortunately did not happen yesterday!

Recent price activity has clearly created a support at 1.2791, which we trade pips above at the moment. Now we need a break of this support so we can say that the abovementioned trend line is broken. If we get what we need, the price will drop hard to 1.2660, and may be 1.2604. Resistance is at 1.2868, and a break here will indicate the initiation of a rising move targeting Fibonacci retracement levels 1.2985 & 1.3052.

Support:

• 1.2791: clear hourly support.

• 1.2660: Jul 6th high.

• 1.2604: Fibonacci 50% for the whole rise from 1.1875 to 1.3332.

Resistance:

• 1.2868: the falling trend line from Wednesday’s high on the hourly chart.

• 1.2985: Fibonacci 38.2% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.

• 1.3052: Fibonacci 50% level for the drop from the 3-month high of 1.3332.