EUR/USD 1.39 Target, USD/CAD Verging on Shift


The Euro has a rough day on Friday, falling about 150 pips. In the last update on this pair 1.3900 was still the target following the major breach of the upward sloping trendline. If 1.3900 fails to support (in the event the market reaches that point) the pair could see an extension into the 1.3700-1.3650 region. Upward trendline support remains be 1.35 but will move up over time.

A rise back above 1.4350 warrants caution and patience to wait for a valid signal (it is "no mans land" between 1.4350 and 1.4450)


The USD has had a healthy run-up, and by healthy I mean it has had pullbacks as expected but remains in the short-term uptrend. The pair just grazed the long term down trendline last week and sought it out intra-day Friday as well. Both attempts saw a pullback from the 0.9750-0.98 region which has not been seen since mid-march.

A US market close above 0.98 signals the potential for a longer-term rise in the USD (from downtrend to uptrend). Support is currently at 0.9650, but the uptrend remains in place as long as the rate can stay above 0.96. A move back to this level warrants caution and patience to wait another valid signal. 0.95 is support below 0.96, followed by 0.9450-0.9440.

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