Nigeria, UAE supplies put OPEC crude production upbeat

Nigeria, UAE supplies put OPEC crude production upbeatAccording to Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, about 2.68 million barrels a day (mbpd) are expected to be produced by the African countries during
2010.

Nigeria, during December 2009, produced 1.984 million barrels per day, excluding the condensate, and was the highest amongst the African countries, where as Angola was the next.

The above production was an increase from 1.941 million barrels per day to 1.984 million bpd, where as there was a drop in Angola's production was from 1.877 million barrels per day to 1.856 million bpd.

Nigeria's output rose 2.2 on month to month basis and 3.7 on year-on-year basis where as there was a drop of 2 percent in Angola's production year-on-year basis.

With the commencement of Hasdrubal gas field supply from Tunisia, the output is expected to rise by 16 mbpd of condensate. The present quarterly distribution average has been 2.68 mbpd, 2.68 mbpd, 2.68 mbpd and 2.66 mbpd.

The average output of the OPEC crude was around 29.1 mbpd in December, a significant increase of 78,000 bpd and the supplies from most of the OPEC member countries generally remained steady, there was increases of over 40,000 bpd from Nigeria and UAE and a decrease by over 20,000 bpd from Venezuela and Angola.

The production by OPEC, excluding Iraq, was 26.68 mbpd, which was an increase of 68,000 bpd from the November level. According to the reports the demand of oil is not going to increase during 2010 and shall remain at 0.8 mbpd, which only gives a semi rosy picture for 2010, after the two years of financial crisis.

World GDP forecast remains dark, the low manufacturing productions reduced the region's industrial fuel consumption and ultimately caused a decline of 1.5 mbpd in OECD demand during 2009. During 2010 the likely economic recovery shall result in the loss in the OECD oil demand to just 0.12 mbpd. Most of the recovery is expected in the United States.

Meanwhile non OECD countries are expected to have some recovery in all their economic activities and would result in smooth growth in oil demand, which is estimated at
1.0 mbpd. Cold weather in the northern hemisphere resulted in an additional demand for the winter petroleum products. The OECD oil demand is expected to see recovery during 2010, and most of the recovery will be due to U. S, however an over all improvement is also expected in all the regions of OECD.

With the good growth in India and the Middle East, the demand of oil by the developing countries is expected to grow by 2.1 per cent in 2010 resulting in the total non OECD growth of 1.0 mbpd. Non OPEC supply in 2010 is expected to grow by 0.35 mbpd over the last year's average of 51.31 mbpd, an upward revision of 42,000 bpd.

The upward revision was under taken after considering various updates to countries' supply profiles and also keeping in view the revisions introduced to 2009 supply estimates. Non OPEC supply is expected to average 51.42 mbpd, 51.19 mbpd, 51.03 mbpd and 51.61 on quarterly basis.