USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Dead boring, this pair just does not want to move, and to add to it, there are authorities that are “watching closely”. It is not a very promising situation, but we believe everything will change if 84.03 is broken. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued. On the other hand, the all important trend line falling from May 5th top, is currently at 85.10. The price has tried several times to break this line in the past few days without success. The Dollar needs to break this line in order to keep going. Simply said, breaking 84.03 or 85.10 is the single most important factor in determining the direction for the medium and short term. If we break 84.03, this means that the speculators have launched a new attack on the Japanese authorities, and that price will target the important 83.73 then 82.87. But, if the price managed to break 85.10 somehow, the technical outlook will change dramatically, and we will be heading to the important levels above 86, most important to us are 86.25 & 86.95.

Support:

• 84.03: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short term.

• 83.33: Sep 8th low.

• 82.87: Sep 14th low, and the low for the last 15 years.

Resistance:

• 85.10: the falling trend line from May 5th top on the daily chart.

• 86.25: Jul 20th high.

• 86.95: Jul 1st low.