Waaree Energies Share Price Target at Rs 2,908: Joindre Capital Stock Research Report
Joindre Capital Services has kept its BUY rating on Waaree Energies with a target price of Rs 2,908, about 26.2% above the current market price of Rs 2,304. The solar module maker's revenue for the September quarter rose 23.9% to Rs 7,517.7 crore, but net profit fell 14.2% to Rs 753.6 crore as gross margin shrank 879 basis points to 26%. The brokerage blamed a quarter of transition, not weak demand. It pointed to a booming retail franchise, better US pricing after Section 232 rules and new cell capacity. Management reaffirmed full-year operating EBITDA guidance of Rs 7,000-7,700 crore.
Joindre Capital Services · Q2FY27 Result Update · Oct. 30, 2026
Waaree Energies: Margins Dim in a Quarter of Transition, but Joindre Capital Sees Retail, US Plants and New Cells Bringing Back the Sun
BUY MaintainedFY27 guidance reaffirmedProfit miss
India's largest solar module maker grew sales strongly but missed the brokerage's profit estimate. Joindre Capital argues the drag came from policy timing and new plants that have yet to start earning.
Rating
BUY
CMP
Rs 2,304
Target
Rs 2,908
Upside
26.2%
52-week
Rs 3,557 / 2,162
Basis
DCF
MODULE DATASHEET · NSE WAAREEENER · BSE 544277
Waaree Energies' second-quarter print was soft on profitability, according to Joindre Capital Services' portfolio management research desk. Revenue of Rs 7,517.7 crore came in slightly ahead of the brokerage's Rs 7,433.4 crore estimate, but every line below it fell short. EBITDA dropped 5.1% to Rs 1,335.2 crore against an expected Rs 1,571.9 crore, and net profit of Rs 753.6 crore trailed the Rs 950.2 crore forecast.
The analysts traced the shortfall to three shifts. An extension of ALMM List-II delayed supplies of modules made with imported cells, the US Section 232 regime stalled exports from India, and new cell, US module and battery storage plants have yet to contribute.
The Quarter in Numbers
ELECTRICAL CHARACTERISTICS · CONSOLIDATED · RS CRORE
| Metric | Q2FY27 | Q1FY27 | Q2FY26 | QoQ | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,517.7 | 7,931.8 | 6,065.6 | -5.2% | +23.9% |
| Gross profit | 1,955.7 | 2,048.8 | 2,111.1 | -4.5% | -7.4% |
| Gross margin | 26.0% | 25.8% | 34.8% | +18 bps | -879 bps |
| EBITDA | 1,335.2 | 1,439.9 | 1,406.4 | -7.3% | -5.1% |
| EBITDA margin | 17.8% | 18.2% | 23.2% | -39 bps | -543 bps |
| Depreciation | 347.3 | 330.0 | 239.8 | +5.2% | +44.8% |
| Finance costs | 105.3 | 70.4 | 96.1 | +49.6% | +9.6% |
| Net profit | 753.6 | 891.9 | 878.2 | -15.5% | -14.2% |
| EPS (Rs) | 26.20 | 31.01 | 30.53 | -15.5% | -14.2% |
Management called the sequential margin dip optical. The June quarter included a duty refund of about Rs 11 crore in the US, and on a like-for-like basis margins improved as cell output rose to 1.1 GW from 0.8 GW.
Order Book Wired in Series
End-Q1 book
Rs 61,500 cr
+
Net new orders
Rs 5,000 cr
−
Executed
Rs 7,300 cr
=
Oct. 26 book
Rs 59,200 cr
25.6 GW of modules
Rationalised, not broken. Management treated about 3 GW of US export orders as cancelled after the Section 232 minimum import price took effect, with no liability on Waaree. That cut exports to 7.8% of the book from 24%. Domestic India now makes up 48.4% and US-made orders 43.8%. Modules account for 89% of the book, EPC 6% and transmission and distribution 4%.
Key wins included module orders of 2 GW and 739.71 MW, a 700 MW solar plus 2,800 MWh battery storage letter of award, and a transformer order book of Rs 333 crore.
Retail Becomes the Biggest Array on the Roof
Q2FY27 revenue mix, each panel to scale
Retail
46.1%
Utility/C&I
22.9%
Overseas
18.5%
EPC/O&M
12.6%
Retail revenue jumped 253% to Rs 3,464 crore and made up 46.1% of sales, against 16.2% a year ago. First-half retail revenue of Rs 5,753 crore already exceeds the Rs 5,515 crore earned in all of fiscal 2026, and management expects Rs 10,000-11,000 crore from the channel this year.
The network spans more than 775 exclusive franchisees, about 3,000 distribution points and 27 states. Waaree estimates about a 30% share of India's rooftop and commercial and industrial market and has sold more than 1 lakh solar kits since April 2025. Modules still make up about 92% of retail revenue, so inverters, batteries and small transformers are being pushed through the same pipe.
The US Pricing Ruler After Section 232
US module prices, cents per watt (scale 0-50)
Waaree US realisation today: 26-27
Imported modules today: 27-28
Waaree expected realisation over ~3 years: 30-35
Minimum import price for modules: 38 (plus 15% duty)
Imported landed cost under new regime: ~44
Locally made module market price: 46-47 (from 33-35)
Local plants are the shield. Overseas revenue halved to Rs 1,389 crore as exports from India shrank to Rs 89.2 crore, but US-made sales rose 78% to Rs 1,299.5 crore. Local manufacturing earns 9-10 cents per watt, including about 7 cents of 45X tax credit, more than double the 3-4 cents on exports from India.
Two more 1.6 GW lines, the first in the December quarter and the second by March 2027, will lift US capacity to 4.8 GW. Exports use non-Indian, FEOC-compliant cells, so duties on Indian cells do not apply.
Cells, Batteries and the Waaree 2.0 Build-Out
Backward integration. Cell utilisation reached 81% and now runs above 90%. A new 10 GW cell plant at Unn is being commissioned in two 5 GW phases this half, taking cell capacity to 15.4 GW against 25.8 GW of modules. That lifts cell-to-module integration to about 65% from 22%, cutting reliance on purchased domestic cells.
New verticals. Inverter capacity is now 4.15 GW. The battery storage line has started with containers, with 5.15 GWh of packs due this quarter and 3.5 GWh of cells next quarter. A 1 GW electrolyser plant and 20,000 MVA of transformer capacity go live by March 2027. Management sees Rs 7,000-8,000 crore of revenue from inverters, transformers and electrolysers alone.
Rs 30,000 crore capex programme, state of charge
Deployed 35%
Executing 28%
Planning 37%
Next milestones: 10 GW ingot-wafer plant at Nagpur by about September 2027, and a Rs 3,900 crore glass plant near Navsari in fiscal 2029.
A Back-Ended Year: Guidance Against the First Half
FY27 EBITDA, Rs crore (scale 0-8,000)
H1 actual Rs 2,775.1 crore Guidance band Rs 7,000-7,700 crore Joindre FY27E Rs 5,864.4 crore
Guidance implies a second half of Rs 4,200-4,900 crore, heavier in the March quarter as the new cell line and US capacity start running at 30-40% utilisation. India module utilisation slipped to 45% in the September quarter while supply chains were replanned for the ALMM extension, and management expects supplies of modules made with imported cells to rise sharply this quarter. Domestic demand is running at about 55-60 GW of DC modules a year.
Joindre Capital's Estimates
| Rs crore | FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 26,536.8 | 32,351.5 | 41,409.9 | 53,832.9 |
| EBITDA | 5,908.6 | 5,864.4 | 7,713.5 | 10,296.7 |
| EBITDA margin | 22.3% | 18.1% | 18.6% | 19.1% |
| Net profit | 3,884.2 | 3,550.5 | 4,594.7 | 6,216.7 |
| EPS (Rs) | 135.0 | 123.4 | 159.7 | 216.1 |
| RoE / RoCE | 25.9% / 28.3% | 19.2% / 19.8% | 19.9% / 21.8% | 21.3% / 23.9% |
| P/E / EV-EBITDA (x) | 17.1 / 10.5 | 18.7 / 11.1 | 14.4 / 8.6 | 10.7 / 6.3 |
The balance sheet carries net cash of Rs 3,224 crore on a net worth of Rs 16,020 crore. First-half operating cash flow rose about fivefold to Rs 3,483.6 crore, helped by customer advances. Promoters hold 64.12% of the company, foreign investors 8.57% and domestic institutions 4.09%.
Target Price and What Investors Get
NET-METERING STATEMENT
Account: Waaree Energies · Tariff: DCF
Import reading (CMP)Rs 2,304
Export reading (target)Rs 2,908
Net credit / shareRs 604 (26.2%)
TopNews check: target equals ~18.2x FY28E EPS of Rs 159.7 and ~13.5x FY29E EPS of Rs 216.1.
Joindre Capital set its Rs 2,908 target on a discounted cash flow valuation, implying a 26.2% upside. It noted first-half EBITDA is already about 38% of the guided range, while the Rs 59,200 crore order book gives visibility.
Over four to five years, management sees a path to group revenue of Rs 90,000-1,00,000 crore at about 75% utilisation, with non-solar businesses rising to 40-50% of the mix. The brokerage said industry consolidation driven by ingot-wafer rules, ALMM List-II and localisation mandates favours integrated, scaled players such as Waaree.
Shading Losses to Watch
Joindre monitorable
Module price correction. Domestic cell capacity of about 40 GW could reach 60-70 GW within six months, pressuring domestic-cell module prices of 20-24 cents per watt.
Joindre monitorable
Execution and orders. A back-ended second half, the Unn cell ramp-up, conversion of cancelled US export orders into compliant contracts and the build-up in customer advances.
TopNews observation
Working capital. The brokerage projects inventory days rising to about 104 in FY27E from 86 in FY26, tying up cash during a heavy capex year.
Editor's Note
Estimate versus guidance: Joindre's own FY27E EBITDA of Rs 5,864.4 crore sits well below the Rs 7,000-7,700 crore operating EBITDA guidance it cites. The report does not explain whether the two use different definitions.
Second-half share: The report says the second half should deliver 55-60% of full-year EBITDA. With H1 at Rs 2,775.1 crore, the guided range implies a second-half share of about 60-64%.
Borrowing: Management says existing cash fully funds projects under construction without fresh borrowing, yet the brokerage's balance sheet shows borrowings rising to Rs 2,667.2 crore in FY27E from Rs 1,461.4 crore.
US output: The Texas plant is described as producing 0.3 GW in the quarter, while the call notes say about 0.4 GW of modules sold came from the US plant.
Sources
Joindre Capital Services (PMS Research), Waaree Energies Q2FY27 Result Update, Oct. 30, 2026. Research head: V. Jayaram. Company disclosures and earnings call as cited in the report. Figures converted from Rs million to Rs crore. The module grid, order string, revenue array, price ruler, capex charge bar and guidance bar redraw the report's printed figures. Implied multiples, the second-half share and working-capital notes are TopNews calculations.
Disclaimer: This TopNews Stock Report is for information only and is not investment advice. Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all related documents carefully and consult a registered adviser before investing.
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