Forex Update

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

The Cable is consolidating along with the EUR/USD as investors cash in some profits after Wednesday's furious rally. Despite the slight pullback, the Cable is now comfortably above the downtrend line which we view as the last line of moving average resistance preventing the currency pair from continuing its uptrend.

Therefore, despite the immediate obstacles presented by February highs, Wednesday's move should mark the end of the downtrend for now. As we've seen in the past, large sudden movements are normally followed by successive aftershocks and a perpetuation of the movement's momentum.

However, keeping this in mind, the GBP/USD could still experience some near-term profit-taking and has dropped below our near-term trend line.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

The EUR/USD consolidated late Thursday and is experiencing some profit taking on Friday after the massive run in reaction to America's announcement of quantitative easing.

We view the present downward movement in the EUR/USD as healthy profit-taking considering the large gains logged in the prior 48 hours. As we stated in our previous post, Wednesday's jump in the EUR/USD was a tectonic shift in trend and traders should keep this point in mind.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

Gold is consolidating along with the major Dollar crosses as investors continue to decipher Wednesday's monumental rally. As we explained previously, Gold made a clear statement to the upside and Wednesday's move should carry over for the near-term.

Most interesting is whether gold will exhibit a positive correlation with U. S. equities. With gold in an uptrend and all equity correlations pointing to the upside, we will have to see whether equities can rally past the critical 800 level.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

Crude is consolidating along with gold and all major Dollar crosses. In another sign of encouragement to the upside, crude futures are sticking above the highly psychological level during the consolidation process.

The futures are presently struggling with our 2nd tier downtrend line, the legitimate fundamental barrier before a retest of 2009 highs. Investors continue to ignore the rising crude inventories and are encouraged by the fact that a weaker Dollar should stimulate global demand for the Dollar-pegged commodity.

Furthermore, even though recent production and manufacturing data points from the U. S. have been negative, they indicate stabilization with a possible upturn.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are leveling off following Wednesday's fundamental gains in reaction to the Fed's decision to implement quantitative easing. The profit-taking is reflected across the 5 and 10 Year Notes as well.

However, such a large move should have its ramifications, and we would not be surprised to see the U. S. Treasuries continue on their upward path for the near-term. However, the question becomes whether the 30 Year futures can climb past the drudges of the January trading range to get back to making comfortable gains.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.20.09

Even though all of the equity correlations are indicating a furious rally in the S&P futures, investors are debating whether to send the index past the highly psychological 800 level.

Investors are still digesting Wednesday's huge move from the Federal Reserve, and are uncertain whether it spells recovery or pending disaster for the U. S. economy. Financials are trading down for the most part while technologies rally.

The largest concern for investors is that the quantitative easing will result in hyperinflation, or higher prices coupled with a withering economy. The Dollar has weakened significantly across the board while commodities such as gold, grains, and crude are rising.

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