Forex Update

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

The USD/JPY continues its movement sideways, building up a solid base in the meantime.  Investors are still contemplating whether to catapult the currency pair above 100, which would signify a psychologically important move for the Dollar.

Seeing as U.S. equities continue to strengthen as the Japanese economy weakens, there are growing incentives to follow through with the fundamental move.

However, investors will still wait for a statement move from the S&P futures showing the present rally has legs.  If the S&P futures can plow through key resistances, the USD/JPY should follow suit.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

The Cable is strengthening Monday after Barclay’s said its operations continue to outperform.  The UK bank’s shares soared 22% during the European trading session.

Additionally, the Cable is finding encouragement in the EU’s stable CPI report coupled with its positive correlation with U.S. equities.  The S&P futures are pointing towards another positive open for the U.S. equity markets.

However, the GBP/USD is experiencing some profit-taking right now as it encounters March highs and the dense trading range dating back to late January.  We won’t see any economic data from Britain until Wednesday. 

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

The EUR/USD is flying after the EU reported a Core CPI one basis point better than expectations. A stabilizing CPI indicates future growth in business revenue and consequently a stronger Euro.


Consequently, if additional EU data confirms this trend then the ECB may be able to avoid lowering its benchmark rate further. However, we must not forget the ugly economic data released from Germany last week, which raises a cautionary flag to the wind.

ECB President Trichet addresses the public today, and all ears will be keen to decipher his language concerning upcoming monetary policy decisions. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD is putting on an impressive show, pushing through our 2nd and 3rd uptrend lines in a single swoop.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

Crude futures have sold off sharply after OPEC decided to keep production levels unchanged. Investors were anticipating another supply shock, so the price of crude is paying for the inaction on Monday.

Obama put in a call to the Saudis a week ago, imploring OPEC's most influential country to keep production stable to avoid strangling a limping global economy. The Saudis took notice, and production should remain unchanged until they next meeting in May. The futures are currently finding stability along our uptrend lines, showing there is hope for the uptrend.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

Gold is stabilizing and recovering from its slight downward movement on Friday despite equities edging up in pre-market. The main test for the precious metal will be March highs and our 3rd tier uptrend line. If Gold can't rise above these levels soon, then the downtrend could take hold again.

If the precious metal can close comfortably above March highs, we anticipate large near-term gains. It will be interesting to see how Gold's negative correlation with equities plays out in the coming week.

The stabilization and hesitation of Gold to break downwards could be hinting at an upcoming selloff in the S&P futures. However, the precious metal hasn't committed to a near-term direction yet, so we will stick with a wait and see approach.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.16.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures are experiencing profit-taking Monday with a trend line inflection point approaching today. Therefore, we should witness some heightened volatility to kick off the weekend. The 30 Year futures are weakening in reaction to the realization China is slowly diversifying its foreign exchange reserves in an effort to reduce exposure to U. S. debt.

As a result, price is declining and interest rates rising in an effort to attract more investors to the escalating level of U. S. bond issuance. Nevertheless, the 30 Year futures remain wedged between the trading range from early February.

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