Forex Update

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The USD/JPY confirms the lack of FX investor excitement concerning the massive rally on Wall Street. The USD/JPY moved sideways showing indifference to a surging S&P. Even though Japan's Core Machinery Orders experienced a hefty decline, the number came in better than analyst expectations.

Therefore, investors are questioning whether the Japanese or U. S. economy is performing better right now. If Japanese data continues to beat expectations while U. S. disappoints, then we could witness a return to the negative correlation between the USD/JPY and S&P futures.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The Pound has depreciated against the Dollar over the past 24 hours despite the enormous rally in U. S. equities on Tuesday. The nationalization of Lloyd's bank is obviously not sitting well with investors. The BOE is treading water playing with nationalization and quantitative easing since the approach has proven unsuccessful in the past.

Hence, investors continue to punish the Cable. To make matters worse, Britain reported a Trade Balance below expectations, revealing that the economy continues to import far more than it exports. A negative Trade Balance is normally highly negative for the home currency.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The EUR/USD experienced wild swings yesterday despite an incredible rally in U. S. equities. Considering both have been positively correlated during significant movements, the EUR/USD's lackluster performance was a bit disconcerting.


However, the EUR/USD found support on our uptrend line once again, and is rallying strongly on Wednesday. Interestingly, the Euro is appreciating today despite extremely negative reports from the EU's economic powerhouse, Germany.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

Gold dropped on Tuesday, exercising its negative correlation with U. S. equities to the full extent by dipping below the highly psychological $900/oz level.

However, the precious metal is finding support on our 1st tier trend line on Wednesday and has fought back to $900/oz. The question becomes whether U. S. equities can follow through on yesterday's impressive rally, or if Tuesday's surge was merely a head-fake.

If the S&P does continue upwards and Gold sinks below our 1st tier uptrend line, then we could witness a near-term crash in the precious metal. The next few trading sessions will certainly be telling as far as trend is concerned.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

Crude futures declined yesterday despite a huge rally in equities. The fact Crude didn't follow the S&P to the upside is confusing, and a bit discouraging for the bulls. Meanwhile, Crude has dipped below our downtrend line, indicating we could witness a continued selloff until our 2nd tier uptrend line.

The U. S. will release Crude Oil Inventories today. Analysts are expecting an increase of 0.1M barrels. If the number should come in higher than expected coupled with profit-taking in U. S. equities, this would provide the fuel for a sharp movement to the downside.

Though we are negative in the short-term concerning Crude futures, there are still multiple uptrend lines within which the futures can find support.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.11.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures tumbled yesterday in reaction to the huge surge in U. S. equities. Even though the 30 Year futures sold off, they are holding comfortably above March lows on Wednesday morning.

Therefore, the futures are trying to hold onto the uptrend while avoiding our 2nd tier downtrend line. The lack of commitment to the downside in the 30 Year futures shows traders aren't entirely convinced by the rally in the S&P futures on Tuesday.

However, despite the present stabilization in the 30 Year futures, the momentum remains to the downside due to the large supply of long-term bonds to fund the government's stimulus package. If equities can follow through on their rally, we may very well see a breach of the significant March lows.

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