Cotton prices gained on strong demand from bulk consumers. Demand of the fibre has improved steeply in last few weeks as exporters are actively buying cotton to meet their export commitments which was made earlier during starting of the marketing year in October. Similarly, below average supply of cotton in current season also keeping demand higher at physical market. Brazilian cotton prices are likely to be firm in 2017 amid lower output of harvested cotton from the 2015-16 crop and lower ending stocks of the same crop.
Cardamom on MCX settled down -0.89% at 1543.7 as investors remained on the sidelines amid muted physical demand for cardamom in the domestic spot market. Exporters were active in the auction centres and where making heavy purchases. During the last weeks reporters have reportedly bought over 300 ton cardamom. Deficient rains have hit the cardamom crop badly in Kerala-the largest producing states. Even now plantations are facing moisture stress which may impact pickings. Total cardamom arrivals across Kerala in last week were around 410 MT against 333 MT arrived during last week, higher by 22.8%. Meanwhile, exports and domestic buying was lower at higher price levels.
Maize on NCDEX settled up 1.18% at 1463 tracking firmness in spot demand and overseas prices. In India, maize has been sown in around 14.72 lakh hectares which is higher than 13.46 lakh hectare covered during corresponding period last year. In Maharashtra, it has been sown in around 2.41 lakh hectares which are higher than 2.10 lakh hectare covered during corresponding period last year. In Bihar also, it has been sown in around 4.47 lakh hectares which is higher than 4.36 lakh hectare covered during corresponding period last year. The area under the rabi maize crop across the country was at 1.01 mln ha up 6.4% from a year ago, according to data released by the farm ministry. A year ago, farmers had sown maize across 953,600 ha.
Jeera on NCDEX settled up 2.26% at 17880 due to weak supplies position amid good demand from exporters. Though, some gains were capped on expectation of increase in Jeera area in Gujarat state mainly in Saurashtra and Kutch zone current year. Sowing has been good so far and weather conditions are also favorable for jeera crop. As all is going well as exporters are not buying in large quantities but are waiting for the new crop. However, looking at the current trend, buyers may not take a risk and initially demand will be low at the beginning of the new season. According to jeera exporters, while the new season is likely to start in March, farmers have gradually begun accepting payment digitally, and have therefore been able to ensure steady supply.
Turmeric on NCDEX settled up 1.34% at 6944 supported by surging domestic as well as exports demand in the spot market. Though, some gains were capped on reports of higher output and scattered commencement of crop supplies in the producing centers. In Sangli (Maharashtra), new Turmeric crop coming to the market with small quantity around 450 bags (1 bag = 70kgs), for new crop price quoted in a range of Rs.6800 - Rs.8000/qtl depends on quality and variety. Turmeric crop reported well in Maharashtra state expected better production compared to last year. As per trade information, from Karnataka Belgaum district new Turmeric will come to the market from February first week.In Nizamabad major growing regions Turmeric standing crop also reported well.
Rmseed on NCDEX settled down -0.25% at 3925 on forecast of higher output and yields. According to Ministry of Agriculture, till Jan 13 around 6.956 million hectare has been planted which is up by 11% on year for the same duration. The rains which are expected during the coming days would be favourable for the mustard crop as the crop requires moisture during this stage. The favourable climatic conditions this year have raised hopes of a bumper mustard crop in 2016-17, if there is no adversity reported in coming months. Mustard sowing is completed on 6.953 million hectare as compared to 6.276 million hectare, higher by 10.8%. Congenial sowing conditions and higher prices forced farmers to take buoyant sowing of Mustard in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
CPO on MCX settled down -0.78% at 588.5 on expectation of higher supply from Malaysia and Indonesia. Indonesia's crude palm oil (CPO) output likely fell slightly in December, ending a seven-month run of gains, a survey showed. CPO production in the South-East Asian nation likely eased to 3.22 million tons in December from 3.31 million tons in November, according to the median estimate in a survey of three industry associations and a state palm research firm. Malaysia's palm oil output may rise by 12% this year to 19.4 million tons from 17.4 million tons in 2016 while exports may rise 11.2% to 17.85 million tons from 16.05 million tons in 2016, Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
Ref.Soya oil on NCDEX settled down -1.1% at 717.15 tracking weakness in spot demand on expectation of higher supply. According to USDA, Jan'17 WASDE report, around 10.16 million tons is the estimated production figure for 2016-17 which is up by 0.5% on month. Meanwhile the ending stock is estimated to be around 750,000 tons which was 700,000 tons in Dec'16. Moreover, soyoil stocks in US at the end of December rose 7.1% to 1.434 billion pounds compared to 1.338 billion pounds in November 2016. Stocks of soy oil in December were lower by 3.2% compared to December 2015, which was reported at 1.481 million pounds.
Soyabean on NCDEX settled down -1.17% at 3122 on expectation of higher supply in global market. As per Farm Futures survey of growers in US, farmers are expected to plant 90.5 million acres of soybeans this spring, topping the record high set last year by about 7 million acres. International Grain Council (IGC) hiked world soybean production by 6% for the current oil period 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) on robust harvest in major bean growers. World soybean output is expected to rise to 334.2 million tons compared to 315.7 million tons estimated for 2015-16 period, IGC said in its grain market report. IGC expects world soybean closing stockpiles for 2016-17 at 35.4 million tons compared to 33.9 million tons in the same period a year ago.
Menthaoil on MCX settled down -2.29% at 1004.2 triggered by muted demand at the spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices. Sources mentioned that nearly 14500 MT of mint products were exported in six months of the current financial year. This implies that export demand for the complete financial year can be between 27000 and 29000 MT quite cheaper, versus 23000 of total exports last year. Farmers are keeping most of the stocks in their hands. Most buyers are willing to buy at these levels. Since farmers are keeping most of stocks, thus whenever requirement arises, industry people will be purchasing from the farmers.
Aluminium prices ended with gains on talk that China might have to cut smelting capacity because of environmental concerns. Inventories of aluminium inched slightly lower to 2.3 million tonnes but are up nearly 10 percent over the last month. The supply would inevitably rise because many emerging markets producers were looking to produce at near record levels despite high stock piles. Aluminium has been neglected for so long and with copper and other metals going up, there is no reason why aluminium should do some catching up. The latest report published by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates that global primary aluminum market has recorded a marginal deficit during the initial eleven months of 2016.
Nickel dropped as LME nickel ended 2.3 percent lower at $9,700 amid expectations of higher supplies and rising stocks in LME approved warehouses. It is Indonesia’s decision to ease its export ban that serves the main culprit for the decline. Indonesia finally introduced new rules on January 12 that the country will allow exports of nickel ore under certain conditions. It was heard since September 2016 that the country proposed to revise its ban. In accordance with the new regulations, nickel miners should dedicate 30 percent of their smelter capacity to process low-grade ore, and the remaining low-grade ore will be allowed to be exported. Global nickel market ended in deficit of 84,600 tonnes in January-November 2016 with apparent demand exceeding production.
Zinc prices recovered from lows as the market was waiting to hear more on Donald Trump's plans for the U.S. economy. U.S. infrastructure spending is not widely expected to be a game-changer for industrial metals demand. China, which accounts for around half of global demand for industrial metals, will remain the main focus this year. Its Lunar New Year holiday starting Jan. 27 is expected to subdue demand and manufacturing activity this month and next as factories close, sometimes for two to three weeks. Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong added 13,400 to 229,800 tonnes this past week. Inventories in the three regions increased for three weeks in a row. Arriving shipments were more than outward shipments.
Copper gained as the dollar slipped, but gains were capped by weak investment and industrial production data from top consumer China fuelling worries about demand. China's gross domestic product expanded 6.8 percent in the fourth quarter, outpacing market forecast of 6.7 percent, supported by higher government spending and record bank lending. Expectations that China will continue to spur economic activity this year should boost demand in the world's top copper consumer and sustain the market's upbeat outlook for the metal. U.S. infrastructure spending is not widely expected to be a game-changer for industrial metals demand. China, which accounts for around half of global demand for industrial metals, will remain the main focus this year. Its Lunar New Year holiday starting Jan.
Natural gas dropped because of winter weather forecasts that keep getting progressively warmer. The U. S. Energy Information Administration said natural-gas stockpiles shrank by 243 billion cubic feet. That compared with a withdrawal of 151 billion cubic feet in the preceding week, 178 billion a year earlier and a five-year average drop of 170 billion cubic feet. Total natural gas in storage currently stands at 2.917 trillion cubic feet, according to the U. S. Energy Information Administration, 12.9% lower than levels at this time a year ago and around 2.6% below the five-year average for this time of year. Meanwhile, weather forecasts for the end of January turned warmer, which should dampen demand for the heating fuel.
Crude oil prices ended with gains as remarks by the International Energy Agency continued to lend support. Prices remained supported after the IEA said that world oil markets are slowly tightening as demand rises. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA said output cuts announced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 11 non-OPEC producers in November had "entered their probation period". January 1 marked the official start of the deal agreed by OPEC and non-OPEC member countries such as Russia in November last year to reduce output by almost 1.8 million barrels per day.
Silver gained as the dollar fell and U. S. Treasury yields came off their highs after Donald Trump was sworn in as U. S. president. Trump pledged to end the "American carnage" of social and economic woes in an inaugural address that was a populist and nationalist rallying cry, prompting investor concern about protectionist trade policies. Prices shrugged off better-than-expected U. S. jobs, housing and factory data that reinforced the view that the U. S. economy is sufficiently robust to warrant interest rate rises. Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker said he expected three interest rate increases in 2017 if the labor market improves further and inflation moves to the Federal Reserve's 2 percent goal.
Gold prices edged higher as caution surrounding Donald Trump’s future policies continued to boost demand for the safe-haven precious metal. Gold prices initially dropped due to a stronger U.S. dollar late Thursday, after Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank should continue to raise interest rates, but slowly. Speaking at a conference in San Francisco, Yellen said that "allowing the economy to run markedly and persistently ‘hot’ would be risky and unwise," before adding: "I consider it prudent to adjust the stance of monetary policy gradually over time." The greenback also strengthened following the release of strong U.S. jobless claims and housing starts data, as well as an upbeat Philly Fed manufacturing activity report. A stronger U.S.
Cotton on MCX settled up by 0.7% at 20160 tracking firmness in spot demand and lower arrivals in local mandis. Total of 12.45 million bales have arrived until Jan 17 during the 2016-17 marketing season, this is 7.1% below the arrivals in the same period last year, the data published by Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) said. Meanwhile, The National Tariff Commission (NTC) of Pakistan has imposed variable counter regulatory duty on import of fine yarn from India, which was previously subsidised. In the 2016-17 cotton marketing year, US cotton exports are likely to increase by 35 per cent. US market share of world cotton trade is forecast to increase as exports have increased 66 per cent year on year in the first five months of the current marketing year.
Cardamom on MCX settled up by 0.14% at 1557.5 due to tight stocks amid sustained demand from exporters. Cardamom prices are expected to trade higher during the coming week tracking expected fall in arrivals and concern over standing crop. Exporters continued to buy cardamom from the markets hoping to get fresh orders due to India's competitive prices in global markets amid lower supplies from Guatemala-the other producer. Supply scenario is expected to improve this week. But, the main problem persistently affecting the trade is that only a third of the participants is still active at the auctions and in the open market trading. Harvesting trend is any indication, the total output during the current season might come to around 40 per cent of the previous crop.