Equity indices: The market’s movement in the last week has entirely justified our guarded stance. As we had mentioned in our last weeks report, the index continues to vacillate with no clear directional thrust. We expect the market to continue with this characteristic and send confusing signals for some more time.

But the weak closing on Friday below 5460 means that the short term trend may remain weak / neutral. However, we find signs of life in the Mid cap index. A clear case of technical positive divergence has begun to emerge in this index indicating few odds for a negative tren. We close the week onthis possible positive note.

Global Outlook
Commodities: Base metals exhibited varying degree of weakness for the major part of last week. While Aluminium remained subdued, Copper and Zinc saw much sharper cut and declined considerably making its short term technical structure bearish. In bullion, Gold and Silver may remain weak in the coming week post which its uptrend is likely to continue. Crude is likely to decline near its supports this week post which its uptrend may also resume.

Currencies: Dollar/Rupee may move sideways in a trading range. Euro/Dollar may remain subdued and then drift higher closer to the 1.40 level. Dollar/Yen is likely to face resistance closer to 84.00-84.50 level. The DXY may continue with its pull back rally which will help it scale higher close to 78.50 level.