Weekly Commodity Update by KediaCommodity
Chana we have seen that prices has dropped over 5% on weekly basis weighed by good progress in the sowing of summer pulses due to ahead of schedule and ample monsoon rains.
Kharif pulses sowing is progressing well and it is before time in many areas because of sufficient rainfall.
Chana output is expected to be 8.49 million tonnes in 2012/13 according to the agriculture ministry's third advance estimate, as against 7.70 million tonnes a year earlier.
Chana prices are not holding up amid a dull activity in the ready market.
The arrivals in Delhi's Lawrence Road mandi are 30 trucks as compared to 30 trucks in last session.
Meanwhile, there are some concerns lingering on the pulses sowing in Maharashtra in select pockets. The demand is moderate in other pulses like Tur and Masur.
The spot prices are off their two-year lows but the commodity is down around 20% on a year ago basis as well.
The total output of Chana is likely to be 8.57 million tonnes in the current year.
This marks a gain of 11.29% compared to the last year's production of 7.57 million tonnes. Rabi Pulses output is likely to be 12.09 million tonnes, up 9.61% on the year.
OUTLOOK : Despite of fall we look further downward pressure for chana looking towards the demand and supply scenario prices can test 3000 level.
JEERA
Jeera on weekly basis prices dropped over 2.5% as expectation of arrivals of good quantities of fresh crop Unjha spot market capped the upside in the prices.
·Higher arrival pressure kept trend range bound for Jeera in the mandis even as cloudy weather and rains in some areas in Gujarat and Rajasthan affected the demand.
Jeera is a winter crop sown from October and farmers depend on rains to moisten the land for sowing.
Daily spot supplies are at 8,000-10,000 bags of 60 kg each in the Unjha market, still higher than expected.
The total Jeera production is seen around 34-35 lakh bags in the current year, up almost 1-2 lakh bags from the last year.
This is mainly due to sowing in Rajasthan and better recovery of Jeera from Gujarat.
Due to the ongoing geo-political tensions in Syria and Turkey, supply concerns from these two major exporting countries still exist.
The Cumin crop in Iran is failure due to bad weather and thus would support the Indian cumin seed market in long term.
The total Jeera production in the country is estimated around 34-35 lakh bags in the current year, up almost 1-2 lakh bags from the last year.
This is mainly due to sowing in Rajasthan and better recovery of Jeera from Gujarat. The arrivals have been sliding in last few weeks as the peak supply season gets over.
OUTLOOK: Supply concerns from two major exporting countries Syria and Turkey, also crop in Iran is under failure due to bad weather support the Indian cumin seed market in long term. Also Rupee depreciation has boosted the export with having good stock and also the total Jeera production is seen around 34-35 lakh bags in the current year, up almost 1-2 lakh bags from the last year.
