Following the Israel-Iran tensions, the market reacted as Nifty fell sharply by 250 points today, closing below the 25,000 level. It is showing signs of a sustained move and, for the first time recently, has closed below that level. This indicates that developments are being viewed negatively. A watchdog report also mentioned that Iran is not fully complying with its obligations under the nuclear enrichment program.

The market opened flat today and made slight gains initially, but after that, it witnessed continuous and consistent selling from higher levels. It also closed below the one-hour moving average, which suggests that the upcoming period might remain weak for the Nifty, potentially leading to short-term downside movement.

Global Market Analysis

UN Watchdog Reports on Iran

A recent report has emerged regarding Iran's uranium enrichment program. The UN nuclear watchdog stated that Iran is breaching its non-proliferation obligations concerning uranium enrichment, raising serious concerns about the country's nuclear agenda.

Furthermore, talks between the US and Iran over this issue are showing little progress. Previously, Iran had abandoned the negotiations and rejected the US request to halt its nuclear program.

This issue has become a major concern as reports suggest that Israel is planning a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Recently, former President Trump commented on the situation, stating that there should be no escalation in the region and no further conflict.

Efforts have been made to push Iran toward a nuclear deal, but there seems to be little assurance that these talks will lead to a positive outcome.

Additionally, U.S. and Iranian officials are scheduled to hold the sixth round of talks in Oman on Sunday, focusing on Tehran's escalating uranium enrichment program. The outcome of this meeting will be crucial in determining the next steps.

Unilateral Tariff Push from Trump

In a recent event at the John F. Kennedy Centre, Trump stated that the U.S. will send a letter within a week and a half or two weeks to countries doing business with the United States. In the letter, they will outline specific trade terms and conditions.

The message will be clear: if these countries want to continue trading with the U.S., they must agree to those terms—otherwise, they can exit the trade relationship.

It is predicted that Trump may directly communicate this stance to those countries. This move could have significant implications for global trade and international business. Now, it remains to be seen how this unfolds and what impact it will have on both the U.S. economy and the global market.

Domestic Market Analysis

Ahmedabad Airplane Crash

A horrific tragedy occurred today in Ahmedabad, India, as an Air India flight bound for London crashed shortly after take-off. The flight was carrying over 250 passengers and was scheduled for a long-haul journey to London.

However, the aircraft suffered a sudden failure soon after departure. Some survivors have been reported, but the incident has raised serious concerns and shock across the nation.

Following the incident, Boeing’s stock rose by nearly 5%. In response to the tragedy, the airport has suspended all flights for the next two days. The entire nation—and much of the world—is mourning the loss, as the crash claimed the lives of more than 250 passengers.

Following this incident, Indigo's stock fell by more than 3%, while SpiceJet also declined by nearly 2%. The market reaction is likely due to the fact that India operates a significant number of Boeing aircraft, raising concerns over aviation safety.

Retail Inflation Hits 75-Month Low

Recent data shows that retail inflation has dropped to a 75-month low as of May 2025. According to government data released on Thursday, inflation eased by 354 basis points compared to April 2025. This is a positive development, as declining retail inflation could play a crucial role in strengthening the outlook ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting.

The prediction was made by Reuters based on a survey of 50 economists regarding the May inflation data. The forecast had estimated retail inflation to come in at around 3%, but the actual figure came in slightly lower at 2.82%, which is better than analysts had expected. This indicates a progressive trend and suggests that there may be more room for repo rate cuts, which could help lower borrowing costs.

FII AND DII DATA ANALYSIS

Following the news of rising Iran-Israel tensions and unilateral trade escalation by the U.S., FIIs appear to be stepping back. Recently, FIIs pulled out nearly 3831 crore from the Indian equity market.

It seems they are adopting a cautious approach to investing in Indian equities until there is more clarity regarding global trade deals.

Meanwhile, DIIs have made a strong contribution by purchasing nearly ₹9,393 crore in today’s trading session — a significant figure. This marks consistent buying from DIIs since May 20 of the previous year. Now, the sustainability of the current levels in the Nifty 50 will largely depend on how FIIs act in the upcoming week and in tomorrow’s trading session. Their activity will clearly play a key role in determining whether the market holds at these levels or sees a major impact.

Nifty 50 Technical Analysis

A trendline is visible on the daily chart, offering support near the 24,761 level. This is a key technical level to watch. If the trendline fails to hold and Nifty closes below this support, we could see a further decline toward the next major support at 24,500.

On the upside, 25,200 now acts as a strong resistance. From a technical perspective, these levels — 24,761 as immediate support and 25,200 as resistance — will be crucial in the upcoming trading sessions and should be closely monitored.

Conclusion

Muted buying from FIIs suggests an undecided stance, while consistent buying from DIIs is helping sustain the market — but not enough to push Nifty to higher levels. A key concern arises from recent statements by Donald Trump regarding unilateral trade relations with the U.S.

There is a significant possibility that the Trump administration may once again stir uncertainty over tariffs, especially with the 90-day tariff review period set to end next month.

This situation demands close attention, as the global market reaction to the U.S.'s unilateral trade approach will play a critical role in shaping future market direction.