Tata Steel share price declined one percent on Tuesday amid overall bearishness in the markets. Tata Steel is also facing a resistance in Rs 160-170 range and the stock has reversed even earlier from this zone. As Tata Steel has been under selling pressure during the first few months of 2025, we have witnessed yearly lows for the stock during this period. However, the recovery was swift, mainly backed by news and rising demand for steel in the international markets. Medium to long term investors can accumulate the stock on dips for long term gains. Tata Steel opened the session at Rs 153.81 and touched an intraday high at Rs 154.89 before sliding and closing one percent lower for the session. Rs 150 and 145 remain immediate supports for the stock on technical charts.

Decarbonization and Strategic Overhaul Define Tata Steel’s 2025 Playbook

Tata Steel is doubling down on its green steel ambitions while restructuring legacy assets across geographies. By 2030, the company aims to scale its Indian capacity to 40 million tonnes, with a large share produced via electric arc furnaces (EAFs)—a cleaner, scrap-based alternative to traditional blast furnaces.

In India, a recycling plant near Delhi is already operational, with a second 0.75 million tonne facility in Ludhiana expected by FY26. In FY25, Tata Steel produced 30.9 million tonnes globally, including 26 million tonnes from India.

Europe, meanwhile, is undergoing structural change. The UK’s Port Talbot blast furnaces have been shuttered to make way for a £1.5 billion EAF project scheduled for commissioning in 2027. Backed by £500 million from the UK government, this move is expected to cut 50 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions over a decade.

In the Netherlands, the company is in late-stage talks with the government to green-light a similar transition at IJmuiden, aiming to phase out all European blast furnaces by 2035.

Operational Highlights: Kalinganagar and European Adjustments

Domestically, the ramp-up of a 5 mtpa blast furnace at Kalinganagar—India’s largest—and a 2.2 mtpa cold rolling mill will serve as near-term volume catalysts.

In Europe, the UK business has pivoted to using imported substrates for its downstream mills. In the Netherlands, production has stabilized at near-rated levels, and FY25 EBITDA improved to €90 million—a marked turnaround.

Tata Steel also declared a final dividend of ₹3.60 per share for FY25. Despite market volatility, the stock has climbed 29% from its 52-week low, though it remains a high-beta play (β = 1.4).

Financial Results Reinforce Strategic Resilience

Q4 FY25 Performance:

• Net Profit: ₹1,301 crore (↑113% YoY)
• Revenue: ₹56,218 crore (↓4.2% YoY; ↑5% QoQ)
• EBITDA: ₹6,762 crore (↑1.97% YoY)
• India EBITDA Margin: 21%
• Production: 7.45 million tonnes (↓5.93% YoY)
• Deliveries: 8.33 million tonnes (↑4.38% YoY)

FY25 Summary:

• Consolidated Revenue: ~$26 billion
• EBITDA: ₹25,802 crore (↑10% YoY)
• Net Debt: ₹82,579 crore (↓from ₹98,919 crore)
• Capex: ₹15,671 crore

India contributed ₹7,418 crore in EBITDA on ₹34,661 crore in revenue, while delivery volumes hit 21 million tonnes—an all-time high.

Segment Analysis: India Leads, Europe Restructures

Management Perspective: Cost and Carbon Efficiency as Anchors

CEO T V Narendran and CFO Koushik Chatterjee have been consistent in articulating a dual mandate: aggressive decarbonization and cost competitiveness. FY25 saw ₹6,600 crore in cost savings, reflecting disciplined execution across geographies.

With over ₹1,600 crore invested in R&D over five years, Tata Steel continues to push into advanced automotive grades and hydrogen logistics—areas seen as central to future margin expansion and ESG leadership.

Brokerage Consensus: Buy Ratings Gain Ground

Consensus price targets now range from ₹165 to ₹185, with some independent models projecting up to ₹211 by December 2025.

Technical & Derivatives Outlook: A Tussle Between Bulls and Bears

As of June 17, 2025:

• Current Price: ₹152.60
• RSI: 44.36 (neutral)
• MACD: Mildly bullish
• Stochastic: 18.36 (oversold)
• Supertrend: Bearish at ₹160.73
• Parabolic SAR: ₹156.80 (resistance)

Options activity around the ₹135 CE for June 26 shows significant trader interest but with neutral directional bias.

Institutional Dynamics: Domestic Investors Increase Stake

• Promoter Holding: 33.19% (unchanged)
• DII Ownership: Up to 24.37% (from 23.24%)
• FII Ownership: Down to 18.29% (from 19.68%)
• Retail/Public: 23.36%

The rise in DII holdings highlights domestic conviction in Tata Steel’s strategic trajectory, even as FIIs trim exposure amid broader risk aversion.

Risks and Valuation Caution

• European Transition Risk: Temporary cost inflation and regulatory hurdles around the UK and Netherlands decarbonization paths
• Global Volatility: Tariffs, energy prices, and geopolitical disruption could weigh on earnings
• Valuation Stretch: Tata Steel trades at a 103% premium to its estimated intrinsic value of ₹75.97, implying that much of FY26 optimism is already priced in

Investment Outlook: Accumulate on Dips, Monitor Execution

Tata Steel is executing a bold reinvention—scaling India’s steel future while retooling its European base for a low-carbon era. While near-term price action remains rangebound between ₹150–₹160, successful execution of its EAF projects and continued volume expansion in India could justify further upside in H2 FY26.

Strategic Takeaways:

• Short-Term: Watch for support at ₹150 and breakout potential past ₹160–₹177
• Medium-Term: Margin expansion from lower coal costs and Kalinganagar throughput
• Long-Term: Green steel leadership and domestic scale offer strong re-rating potential

For long-term investors, the recommendation is clear: accumulate on dips, stay anchored to execution updates from Europe, and track quarterly delivery metrics closely. The steel cycle may be mature, but Tata Steel’s strategic pivot is only beginning.