Motilal Oswal Financial Services has reiterated a BUY call on Suzlon Energy, arguing that the recent correction in the stock has created a compelling risk-reward setup at a time when India’s renewable energy architecture is quietly re-tilting in favor of wind. While investor sentiment has been weighed down by fears of solar-plus-storage dominance and slower wind installations, deeper structural signals tell a different story. Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy (FDRE) bids, grid-stability economics, rising demand from data centers, public sector undertakings and commercial users, along with Suzlon’s expanding order book and improving financial profile, collectively point to a multi-year earnings upcycle. Motilal Oswal has assigned a target price of Rs 74, implying 54% upside from the current market price of Rs 48.

Risk-Reward Turns Favorable After FY26 Sell-Off

Suzlon Energy’s shares have declined nearly 15% in FY26, reflecting concerns around intensifying competition, slower near-term wind installations and perceived cannibalization by solar-plus-battery projects. Motilal Oswal believes these fears are overstated. At current levels, the stock trades at 19.5x FY28E earnings, a valuation that understates the visibility Suzlon now enjoys across orders, execution and cash flows.

The brokerage notes that while renewable capital-goods valuations have cooled, Suzlon’s improving balance sheet, strong order coverage and accelerating profitability justify a rerating as execution unfolds.

Wind Capacity Set for Structural Acceleration in India

India’s wind capacity growth is poised to shift from a historical CAGR of 5.8% to nearly 15% through FY30. Installed wind capacity stood at about 50GW in FY25, but national targets call for 100GW by FY30 and as much as 400GW by 2047.

Global institutions including IEA and NREL suggest that even these targets may prove conservative, arguing that 121–164GW of wind capacity is required by 2030 to achieve a low-cost, stable energy mix. Motilal Oswal expects annual wind installations to rise steadily to 6GW in FY26, 8GW in FY27, and 10GW in FY28, restoring momentum for domestic wind OEMs.

FDRE Economics Restore Wind’s Strategic Edge

Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy bids are emerging as a turning point. State utilities are increasingly prioritizing round-the-clock power over headline tariffs, especially as solar-only solutions struggle to meet evening peak demand.

Motilal Oswal highlights that a solar + BESS configuration costs roughly Rs 6.5 per kWh, while a solar + wind + BESS hybrid can deliver power at Rs 4.6–4.7 per kWh. This cost asymmetry structurally re-anchors wind as an essential component of India’s clean-energy transition, not an optional supplement.

Market Realignment Creates a Second Wind for the Sector

Nearly 40GW of renewable projects remain stuck without signed PPAs, most of them solar-heavy. Industry checks indicate that roughly 17GW is pure solar, with wind accounting for a negligible share.

Suzlon’s management expects a meaningful portion of these stalled projects to be rebid as FDRE, reopening the addressable market for wind. Meanwhile, 15–17GW of wind projects are already at the bidding or award stage, offering near-term order flow visibility.

Order Book Strength Anchors Earnings Visibility

Suzlon’s order book stands at approximately 6.5GW, covering 100% of expected deliveries in 2HFY26 and FY27, and nearly 38% of FY28 deliveries. The company has already secured over 2GW of orders in 1HFY26, underscoring a revival in tender momentum.

Motilal Oswal estimates annual deliveries of 2.5GW in FY26, 3.4GW in FY27, and 3.9GW in FY28, supported by stable gross margins of about 24% at the turbine level.

EPC Strategy Emerges as a Competitive Moat

Suzlon is scaling its EPC contribution from 20% to nearly 50% of the order book by FY28. While EPC is margin-dilutive in isolation, it offers execution control in a sector plagued by land acquisition delays, grid bottlenecks and right-of-way challenges.

The company has already initiated land development for 7–8GW of projects and identified another 16GW of potential sites, giving it a significant execution edge over both domestic peers and Chinese OEMs with limited EPC exposure.

Data Centers, PSUs and C&I Users Unlock Incremental Demand

Motilal Oswal estimates 20–24GW of incremental wind demand by 2030, over and above India’s official wind targets. This demand is expected to be driven by:

Data centers: Rising from 1.5GW to nearly 8GW of capacity, potentially creating 4–5GW of wind demand

Commercial and industrial users: Accounting for 9–12GW of wind demand

Public sector undertakings: Contributing nearly 7GW of incremental wind capacity

This diversification of demand sources reduces Suzlon’s dependence on central auctions and improves pricing resilience.

Exports Open a New Growth Vector

India is emerging as a global wind manufacturing hub, and Suzlon intends to participate selectively. Management expects export orders to begin in early FY27, with deliveries commencing from FY28.

Suzlon’s turbine platform is already 90–95% export-ready, requiring limited customization and minimal incremental capital expenditure. Importantly, export orders will be WTG-only, insulating margins from EPC-related execution risks.

Financial Trajectory Reflects a Sharpening Upcycle

Motilal Oswal projects a 38% CAGR in adjusted PAT between FY25 and FY28, supported by revenue growth of over 36% and stable EBITDA margins of 17–18%. The company is also expected to benefit from substantial tax shields, with no meaningful cash tax outgo until at least FY27.

Net debt has turned negative, return ratios have normalized, and free cash flows are improving — a sharp reversal from Suzlon’s historically leveraged profile.

Valuation Framework and Target Levels

Motilal Oswal has valued Suzlon Energy at Rs 74 per share, based on 30x FY28E EPS of Rs 2.5, a modest premium to its long-term average forward multiple. The brokerage argues that improving execution certainty and sector tailwinds warrant this valuation.

Key investment levels:

Current Market Price: Rs 48

Target Price: Rs 74

Upside Potential: 54%

Recommendation: BUY

Bottom Line for Investors

Suzlon Energy is no longer a balance-sheet turnaround story alone. It is increasingly a play on India’s evolving power economics, where grid stability, dispatchability and cost efficiency matter as much as capacity additions. As policy, pricing and procurement logic realign in favor of wind-inclusive solutions, Suzlon appears structurally positioned to capture the next leg of India’s renewable build-out.