Forex Update

USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The USD is holding gains into the end of New York trading today after solid two-way action overnight put the Greenback on the offensive into this morning. Rising to new weekly highs against GBP and yearly highs against CAD; other major pairs remain range-bound and inside-range. Traders note that cross-spreaders for GBP pairs kept Sterling on the defense all day putting in a low print at 1.3741 before stabilizing back on the 1.3800 handle for most of the day.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The USD/JPY is rallying Monday morning, bucking its positive correlation with U. S. equities. The new negative correlation between the two continues to be confirmed with investors judging the currencies based on the comparative economic strength of Japan and the U. S.

With the Carry Trade unwound, running to the Yen as a `safe haven' is over. Even though the U. S. economy is crumbling, the Japanese economy is worse off. Today Japan released a discouragingly low Current Account Surplus, revealing Japanese exports are deteriorating faster than expected. Lower exports spells more trouble for Japan's manufacturing base.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The EUR/USD is selling off sharply on Monday, following the Pound and U. S. equities lower on the news Britain is nationalizing Lloyd's bank. Furthermore, HSBC experienced a rapid selloff, signaling the financials are in for another wave of turmoil on a global front.

This realization alone is foreboding that the major EU banks will experience similar troubles. With the ECB holding its benchmark at relatively high levels compared to the Fed and BOE, investors are speculating the ECB will need to lower rates closer to zero as well.

Encouragingly, the EUR/USD is catching itself above February and March lows, rescuing the currency from a traumatic selloff for the time being.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The Cable is crashing Monday on the news Britain is nationalizing Lloyd’s Bank.  Additionally, it seems HSBC has considerable exposure in U.S. loans, hinting it will need further assistance from the British government.

 Hence, the Britain government is committing itself fully to unknown levels of toxic debt, meaning the BOE may have to print many more Pounds to account for the losses.  This news has sent the GBP/USD tumbling below our 1st tier uptrend line and well below the psychological 1.40 level.

S&P Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

The S&P futures are set to open lower again on Monday with the S&P futures trading in the red pre-market. Friday's late session rally was encouraging in the fact that investors are starting to bite on oversold conditions, signs of a new bottom coming.

However, a high level of uncertainty is still swirling around the financial world and the problems that plagued equities last week remain unanswered. While the U. S. won't report any significant economic data until Thursday, the week is filled with keynote speeches from members of the Fed and Treasury.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.9.09

Crude futures continued their impressive rise on Friday as investors are pricing in another supply cut from OPEC at their March 15th meeting. Setting new March highs, crude futures are now approaching February highs.

While February highs and the psychological $50/bbl pose a hefty near-term struggle, if the futures can manage to break through these obstacles we should see some serious gains. However, there still is a considerable downtrend at hand. Therefore, despite increasing supply cuts from OPEC, the demand side of the equation may be too much to overcome.

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