Forex Update

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 3.6.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures surged on Thursday with the S&P futures continuing their freefall.

Despite the rising supply of long-term treasury bonds in order to raise capital for the government's large stimulus plan, the negative correlation between bonds and equities has been reactivated.

The 30 Year T-Bond futures rose well above all of our previous resistances are approaching our uptrend line with the downtrend lines fading into the distance.

We expect the continuation of sizeable near-term gains should the 30 Year futures climb above February highs.

Crude Daily Commentary for 3.6.09

Crude futures recovered from their losses on Thursday despite another day of crashing U. S. equities. With U. S. inventories declining and investors expecting increasing supply cuts coming from OPEC on March 15th, crude is finding considerable strengthen despite the economic turmoil in America.

Furthermore, China continues to build their stockpiles of crude, taking advantage of what the government views as bargain prices for the essential commodity.

However, U. S. unemployment is rising at a hurried pace while the economy deteriorates, placing a downward pressure on crude that is preventing it from breaking out to huge gains.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.6.09

Gold posted impressive gains Thursday in reaction to free-falling U. S. equities.

Gold darted above our 2nd tier uptrend line and is currently sitting right below our previous resistance of $937.81/oz.

It seems the negative correlation between gold and equities is making its grand return.

If gold can hop above March highs, we could see a large surge to the upside. Gold's uptrend seems comfortably back in play now with a bottom in the S&P futures nowhere in sight.

Fundamentally, we hold our resistances of $937.81/oz and $945.57/oz with fresh resistances of $953.32/oz and $959.84/oz.

To the downside, we find supports of $930.76/oz, $925.09/oz., $918.58/oz., and $910.33/oz.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.6.09

The Euro posted some solid gains against the Dollar in the last 24 hours. Investors bought on the news after the ECB cut its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, in line with expectations.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.6.09

The Cable is logging some healthy gains after the BOE cut its benchmark rate to record low of 0.50%. The Cable is rising above our 2nd tier downtrend line ahead of the U. S. Unemployment Rate. Despite the progress made in the GBP/USD over the last 24 hours, the debilitating medium-term downtrend line remains intact.

What we are likely seeing here is a situation of oversold conditions and buying on the news. Furthermore, Britain released a better than expected PPI Input number this morning, showing an encouraging rise in inflation.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.6.09

The USD/JPY continues its retraction from weekly highs as the U. S. economy stumbles. Even though the Japanese economy is in bad shape, the U. S. doesn't seem too far off.

Therefore, the investors are questioning the U. S. as a safe haven currency all around the FX markets in the last 24 hours.

Therefore, the medium-term downtrend remains largely intact. With our 3rd tier downtrend and the psychological 100 mark hanging over head, the USD/JPY has its work cut out for it to the topside.

Investors will of course be keeping a close eye on the Unemployment Rate coming from the U. S. this morning. If the number is disappointing and U. S. equities tumble, the USD/JPY should follow suit.

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