USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

The USD/JPY is still stuck around 100 as the highly-psychological level is proving to be as difficult to overcome as investors could have anticipated.

The surprisingly positive Core Machinery Orders coupled with Aso's aggressive stimulus package is countering the recent strength in America's economy.

Therefore, the USD/JPY finds itself at an important crossroads as our uptrend line reaches an inflection point with our 3rd tier downtrend line.

The importance of the moment is difficult to express since all of this year's progress made by the USD/JPY to tackle 100 is reaching a climactic point. Will the uptrend prevail or fall under the sword of the monstrous downtrend?

The continuation of the uptrend largely depends on a recovery in the U. S. economy since the carry trade is unwound. Investors will be taking a close look at corporate earnings from the U. S. while anxiously awaiting to see if the recent improvement in economic data continues.

Fundamentally, we maintain our resistances of 100.28, 100.71, 101.44, 101.98, and 102.50. To the downside, we hold our supports of 99.79, 99.06, 98.16, 97.59, and 97.11. The USD/JPY is currently exchanging at 99.79.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.14.09

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