Vietnam trade surplus no cause for celebration, economists say

Vietnam trade surplus no cause for celebration, economists say Hanoi - The Vietnamese government Tuesday reported a record trade surplus, but local economists said they were more worried than pleased.

The state-run newspaper Vietnam News on Tuesday quoted Vietnam's General Statistics Office (GSO) as saying the country spent just 11.8 billion dollars on imports, down 45 per cent from the same period last year, while earning
13.5 billion dollars from exports, a slight increase of 2.4 per cent year-on-year.

The 1.7-billion-dollar trade surplus for the first quarter was a record. The last time in which Vietnam showed a trade surplus was 1992.

But experts said it reflected an abrupt slowing of the economy.

"This is not a welcome signal," said economist Tran Duc Nguyen, former head of the Prime Minister's Research Commission, an economic advisory council.

GSO said the volume and value of imports dropped sharply, including those of raw materials and equipment for domestic production.

Much of Vietnam's export economy involves outsourcing, meaning the country must import components such as electronics and mechanical parts.

Meanwhile several import products for domestic production, including steel and iron, fertilizer and fabric saw decreases of between 28 and 65 per cent compared with the same period last year.

"The drop in materials and equipment imports has adversely influenced domestic production," said Nguyen.

The only item that pleased Nguyen was rice, which topped the list of exports at 1.75 million tons, worth nearly 800 million dollars. That was up 71 per cent by volume and 76 per cent by value over the same period last year.

Nguyen Tran Bat, chairman of Vietnamese consulting firm InvestConsult, said the trade surplus was deceptive because the largest export turnover came from re-exporting 2.3 billion dollars worth of gold.

"It would be a big mistake if we just looked at this trade surplus and thought Vietnam's economy was doing well amid global turmoil," Bat said. (dpa)

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