Rate makes two-pip monthly low before bouncing back to the 1.2950 area, rallies again ahead of fix to clear stops said to be resting around the 1.3020/30 area but holds. Rate reaches to tech support around 1.2880 but traders say conditions are still on the thin side.

Rate has two-way action into the lows suggesting short-term traders and profit-taking by the shorts. Support at or around the 50 day MA now being tested; the 50 day MA is next level needed to hold for the bulls to feel comfortable this week. Need a rally back over within 72 hours for the drop to be considered a correction and not a breakout.

Rate gets slammed as stops and active selling from cross-spreaders break the rate under the 1.4440 support zone; retraces earlier gains to probe for stops in range. Rate likely to have stops building in-range to the upside now that downside stops cleared in a rush. Rate recovers ahead of the fix and regains the 1.4500 handle for most of the day but remains whippy.

Initial test of the psychological 1.5000 area now complete with the pullback likely about over as well and the rate is ready to try for the 1.5000 handle again. Rate likely to find buyers on any dip to the 1.4500 area as this was the breakout area. Rate tests the 50 day MA before recovering back to hold near the 100 day MA; aggressive traders can look to buy dips.

The USD suffered a violent whipsaw today first rising to highs during early New York trade before reversing to make lows against some pairs and end mixed. Rising to highs against the GBP, low prints were hit early as stops and aggressive selling dropped the rate to a low print 0f 1.4395 before short-covering and aggressive buying lifted the pair back to the 1.4500 handle to hold around 1.4510/20 area most of the day. Traders note middle-eastern names on the buy side around the 1.4420 area and slightly lower as the 50 day MA offered support helping the rate to reverse during the London fix.

Rate has inside-range day so far failing to extend to a new low on follow-on selling overnight; rate reaches to tech support around 1.2880 but traders say conditions are still on the thin side. Rate has two-way action into the lows suggesting short-term traders and profit-taking by the shorts.

Support at or around the 50 day MA now being tested; the 50 day MA is next level needed to hold for the bulls to feel comfortable this week. Need a rally back over within 72 hours for the drop to be considered a correction and not a breakout.

Rate extends briefly into the 1.4400 handle and rallies out as shorts cover; stops over the 1.4620 area are large lifting the rate to new highs. Holding firm into the close more upside is likely overnight. Stops said to be building above the 1.4720 area after rate clears close-in stops.

Tests of the psychological 1.5000 area now complete with the pullback likely about over. Rate likely to find buyers on any dip to the 1.4500 area as this was the breakout area. Rate is still holding the 100 day MA nicely and aggressive traders can look to buy dips.

The USD ends mixed today after reaching critical S/R numbers after the open and ahead of the London fix. The BOC announced a 25 BP cut in interest rates lifting the USD/CAD sharply higher as stops over the 1.2400 area fired off topping the rate at 1.2509 before cooler heads prevailed. The rate fell back as late buyers were disappointed finding sell-stops in-range bringing the rate back under the 1.2400 handle eventually making a new low on the day at 1.2324; traders now feel the rate has completed a retracement against the recent weakness and with an inverted hammer formation on the daily charts more losses are likely.

The USD ends the first day of the week on a high note making gains against the majors with the exception of the Yen; analysts note that the USD/JPY is holding below the monthly opening range suggesting a technical correction is finally in play. USD/JPY high prints overnight at 99.42 failed to find stops said to be resting above the 99.50 area and weakness in Yen cross-spreads pressured the rate all day. Low prints in late New York at 97.64 cleared stops resting under the 98.00/10 area taking the CTA’s and black-box traders to the cleaners; the rate never managed a bounce of any significance suggesting that a test of the 50 day MA is now in play around the 97.20 area.

Rate falls back as stops fire off under the 1.4650 area; rate dragged lower with EURO but cross-spreaders likely pressuring the most. Highs rejected as profit-taking drops rate; tests of the psychological 1.5000 area now complete with a pullback in the works; big question is where the bulls will take a stand again.

Rate likely to find buyers on any dip to the 1.4500 area as this was the breakout area. Rate is still holding the 100 day MA nicely and aggressive traders can look to buy dips. Traders note support is likely firm above the 1.4650 area but dip under clears stops quickly.

New low on follow-on selling overnight; rate reaches to tech support around 1.2880 but traders say conditions are still on the thin side but better than Friday. Rate has two-way action into the lows suggesting short-term traders and profit-taking by the shorts.

Support at or around the 50 day MA now being tested; the 50 day MA is next level needed to hold for the bulls to feel comfortable this week. Need a rally back over within 72 hours for the drop to be considered a correction and not a breakout.

Rate likely has stops building in both directions; overhead resistance likely drops to the 1.3080 area; Long-term bulls are likely still in control of the market and this significant pullback is a buying opportunity in my view.

Rate has liquidation break into close-in stops over thin weekend but large names show up on dips traders say taking advantage of conditions. Traders note good sellers above the market but they may be late as traders note protective stops from model accounts around 1.3260 area.

Traders report sovereign interest on the dip. Offers likely waiting back at 1.3330 area but stops are said to be building in size above the 1.3340 area. Rate is firm and possibly set to reverse. Rate appears solid above the 100 day MA. Foothold over the 1.3500 handle needed to extend to the upside.

Rate falls through stops in-range but holds support at 1.4600 area; rate is holding the 100 day MA nicely ad aggressive traders can look to buy dips. Pullback being bought by large names traders say. Stops above the market from late shorts around 1.4720 area cleared for yet another time as the rate rallies overnight; large stops said to be around 1.4780 area.

Traders note support is likely firm at the 1.4450 area as expected. Close over 1.4900 argues for further gains but tech resistance is firm ahead of 1.5000. Overhead target of the 1.5000 area likely to trade but expect pressure. Traders feel the 23-year lows will likely remain secure.

The Easter holiday weekend continues for one more day as some Asian markets were closed overnight leaving the USD unchanged-to-lower from Thursday as traders focused mainly on the crosses into the start of New York this morning. Volumes were understandable light and traders note two-way action dominated by tech factors continued. 

Rate consolidates but is capped at 1.3580 with stops likely above 1.3600 now. Rate is solid above the 100 day MA. Foothold over the 1.3500 handle fails today but support is solid ahead of 1.3330 area. Rate likely has stops building in both directions; shorts lose control of the market after rate clears stops above the 1.3430 area.

Action remains two-way; any move lower is likely supported on dips. Overhead resistance at 1.3330/50 area now support on a pullback; aggressive traders can ADD on a dip. Possibly more official and semi-official bids overnight with traders noting Middle-eastern names on the bid.

Long-term bulls are likely still in control of the market and this significant pullback is a buying opportunity in my view.

Rate pressures up to within striking distance of 1.5000 overnight; likely offers will be thick on any further advance. Aggressive traders can look to lighten up on longs above
1.4950 area. Stops noted above the 1.4880 area on the way up with traders noting stops under there on the way down.

Rate makes lows after the fix but holds support to bounce back onto the 1.4700 handle. Traders note support is likely firm at the 1.4450 area as expected; offers ahead of 1.4700 easily absorbed keeping the bias to the upside. Close over 1.4900 argues for further gains but tech resistance is firm ahead of 1.5000.

The USD continued to correct higher trough today's New York trade reaching the best levels of the day against the majors shortly after the London fix; despite the rise in the Greenback the majors held important S/R levels during the day and remains in two-way action into the close. Technical trade was the rule for the most part as the lack of economic news kept traders focused on near-time price levels with stops helping to drive most of the intraday action.

Rate pressures up to within striking distance of 1.5000 overnight; likely offers will be thick on any further advance. Aggressive traders can look to lighten up on longs above 1.4950 area. Stops noted above the 1.4880 area on the way up with traders noting stops under there on the way down.

Rate consolidates and holds gains but is capped at 1.3580 with stops likely above 1.3600 now. Rate is solid above the 100 day MA. Traders note offers above the 1.3630 area but bids continue to support ahead of 1.3480; foothold over the 1.3500 handle likely to encourage a short-squeeze. Rate likely has stops building in both directions; shorts lose control of the market after rate clears stops above the 1.3430 area.

Rate holds point of indecision so far today; late break fails to attract more bids but still solid above the 100 day MA. Traders note strong offers above the 1.3330 area but bids are absorbing those for now with a foothold over the 1.3300 handle to signal a short-squeeze.

Rate has two-way action suggesting a try for stops above. Rate likely has stops building in both directions but shorts have taken minor control of the market as the rate gives back gains over the 1.3400 area last week late. Action remains two-way; any move lower is likely supported on dips.

Rate makes new highs late in the session; holds gains after two-way action overnight. Positive UK manufacturing data helps hold tone. Traders note stops above the 1.4450 area as expected with offers ahead. Stops cleared over 1.4250 and 1.4300 with more cleared above 1.4350/80 area.

A close back under the 1.4250 area argues for more losses but support is solid around 1.4100 so aggressive traders can buy dips. Close over 1.4450 argues for further gains.

The USD ends mixed today after another volatile two-way session; some pairs extending their ranges during New York trade. Most action was ahead of the London fix as US fundamentals were released as well as overseas news reports from pre-G-20 meeting participants; traders note that volumes dropped significantly after the London fix exaggerating price moves into the end-of-day.

GBP rallied to a new daily high ahead of expected resistance around the 1.4450 area; high prints in late New York at 1.4440 with traders ready for more upside overnight as stops above the 1.4450 area are said to be in size. Cross-spreaders for GBP also active some desks report but most of the action was overnight for Yen.