Munther T Marji

Commodity Trading Tips for Copper by KediaCommodity

CopperCopper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 2.6% up at 412.9 sharply higher on Wednesday, posting its biggest one-day advance in two months, as commodity markets stabilized from recent losses and presented investors with truer valuations. Gains ran far and wide across the commodity complex, led by an almost 4-percent rally in U.S. crude oil prices, and a gold price back up near $1,500 an ounce. A stronger dollar and renewed concerns about global economic growth from China's monetary tightening campaign, weak U.S. data, and Europe's ongoing debt crisis were behind crashing commodity prices in the first two weeks of May.

Euro, Pound Rebounding To Next Setup, Yen Back In Range

Euro: On the daily, the euro is threatening its short setup at 1.428 and may move into its next setup. The full traditional short setup is at 1.44946.

On the 15 min chart, the euro hit its long target at 1.42888 and broke its short setup. Must wait for a retracement to determine the next setup.

Pound: On the daily, the pound looks to be retracing to its next short setup at 1.63308.

Yen: On the daily the yen broke the short setup it was in and hit the target of 81.747 of the long from 80.442. This may indicate the yen wants to continue in its range pattern it has been in the past 8 months. The next long measured move is at 81.058, with the line in the sand at 80.889. The full traditional short is at 82.544, with the line in the sand at 83.25.

Euro, Pound in Measured Moves Short, Yen At Bottom Range

Euro: On the daily the euro is in measured moves short and coming close to breaking its longer term long, with a line in the sand at 1.40031. On the short side, the euro hit its 61.8% of its short from 1.44325. The next traditional short is at 1.41924.

On the 15 min chart you can see the next short at 1.42733, the short was broken but then hit the target at 1.40495. The daily pivot is at 1.41735 which may hold the euro down.

Pound: On the daily the pound is in measured moves short and hit its 23.6% target at 1.61581. Good to wait to see if pound bounces before measuring next short setup. The next full traditional long is at 1.60447.

EUR/USD to continue to fall

The EUR/USD has already seen a significant decline in recent weeks, from an intra-day high on May 4 of 1.4940 to a low of 1.4172 on May 11; the question that many traders are asking is "Can it go lower?"

Technically speaking it is looks like it can. Based on the prior trend channel the target is right around 1.3900. This will leave the primary uptrend still intact (lime line), but the more aggresive uptrend line (red), which began in January, has already been broken. This will act as resistance on corrections higher in the EUR. Expect resistance by 1.4500, with a move above 1.4500 indicating a false downside breakout, and likely continued upward stregnth.

Euro, Pound In Measured Moves Short Into Next Long Setup

Euro: On the daily, the euro is in measured moves short and hit its 23.6% target at 1.418 and rebounded. The next traditional short setup is at 1.4297, with a line in the sand at 1.43254. The short has moved into the longer term euro long at 1.4180. The line in the sand is at 1.40045.

The measured moves are very clear on the 15 min chart.

Pound: On the daily the pound today hit its traditional 50% short at 1.65066 and retraced. The target of the new short is at 1.61581. The 50% at 1.63399 of the longer term long is acting as support and the line in the sand is at 1.6244.

USD/CAD hits likely turning point after strong week

Last week was not something we have seen early March - and that is 4 sessions higher for the USD vs. CAD in a row.  It was a welcomed move for Canadian exporters, and is likely to be met with equally exuberant selling.  While the week took us from nearly 0.9450 to above 0.9700 (closing at 0.9664), no technical damage has been done to the downtrend, and at the moment it remains firmly entrenched.  Thursday and Friday put the market in an improbable position for continued strength.  This is not to say further strength cannot occur, but it is unlikely without first a pullback into the 0.96 - 0.9550 region.
 

Euro, Pound, Yen Hitting Support But In Short Setups

Euro: On the daily, the euro has broken the long trend straight down. The euro is currently in an extension short, with the 50% at 1.441, with a target at 1.42635 (seen in the 15 minutes chart). The daily pivot at 1.44038 is currently keeping the euro in its short setup. The line in the sand is at 1.44337.

The next long setup is at 1.4182, with a line in the sand is 1.40031.

Pound: On the daily, the pound is in measured moves short. The next short target is at 1.62642. It has butted into its next measured move long at 1.63399, with a target at 1.69384. The line in the sand is at 1.6244.

On the 15 min chart, the next measured move short is clear.

Euro, Pound Broke Daily Longs Into Next Setup. Yen In Short.

Euro: On the daily, the euro broke its daily setup and daily extension long into the next traditional long at 1.45469. The line in the sand is at 1.4454. The extension short is at 1.463.

On the 15 min chart, the extension short is clear.

Pound: On the daily, the pound broke its daily longs and is close to its next traditional long setup with a 50% at 1.63399. The traditional 50% short is at 1.65495, with a target at 1.6244.

Yen: On the daily, the yen continues in its steady downward measured moves. Currently in an extension short at 80.589, with a target at 79.09. The yen is already below previous lows of the range it has been in since November 2010. All time low is at 76.359. Previous day high and low at 79.761 may act as some support.

USD Loses more ground against CAD and other Majors

Trend remains down for the USD against the CAD... and continues to lose ground against the EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD and NZD as well. The CAD, AUD and NZD, all commodity related currencies, are pummeling the USD. Gold scorches to 1565 Friday after a pullback below 1500 on Tuesday - putting upward pressure on the AUD and NZD. NZD is not a gold related country itself but since AUD is it's main trading partner, NZD often has an even stronger correlation to Gold prices than the AUD.

Oil continues to push, closing the week right at resistance on the June contract. Recent swing highs are at 114.05, with a recent intra-day high at 114.18. A close above 114 points to sustained upward pressure on the commodity and likely downward pressure on the USD/CAD.

FOMC Tone likely to Weaken the Dollar

The theme of dollar weakness continues to support risk assets and higher yielding currencies as the U. S. is yet to show commitment regarding its Fiscal and Monetary tightening going forward.

With currency markets in a subdued mode ahead of the FOMC announcement and subsequent Bernanke press conference, the better than expected UK GDP provided the only decent trading opportunities in GBPUSD, however, the EURUSD remains contained in its range as interest rate differentials and risk appetite continues to maintain the common currency at its highs.

Euro, Pound Bullish: Yen Finding Resistance

Euro:

The euro, on the daily, has continued in its bullish trend since January. On Monday it bounced off its extension long at 1.41907 and is heading towards its target at 1.46737. The euro has broken its flat top at 1.45188.

Pound:

On the daily, the pound may be breaking out of its range and is heading towards its long target at 1.65442 from its more recent long at 1.61805 from Monday. The pound however has faced strong resistance at its weekly short at 1.6418 and so needs to be watched carefully.

USD/JPY:

On the daily chart, the yen is still in a range, albeit a wider range after hitting an all time low at 76.392. Currently finding some support at the 50% at 82.162.

USD/CAD-False upside break means lower lows

The USD/CAD moved more than a cent and a half off the high monday (0.9720) to currently trading below 0.9550 on Tuesday.

So far today the pair has been supported above 0.9540. A break below opens the door to the intial target and recent low of 0.9525. Trader's will need their head on a swivel if we break below 0.9500 which is the next logical support point, even though technical support does not exist until much lower.

The longer term daily trend remains down, while the hourly downtrend was broken last week. The snap back today has once again aligned the short-term with the longer-term trend.

Euro/Pound Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Euro:
The euro continues in measured moves long. The ruo bounced off its next measured move long at 1.36392, with a target at 1.37396, with coincides with 61.8% target from longer term longs from 1.32404 and 1.3547.

Pound:
On the daily, the pound bounced off (frontrun) it next bullish setup at 1.57328, with a target at 1.2138. The 61.8% of the next short at 1.59379, is acting as resistance.

Yen:
On the daily, the 61.8% on the long at 81.971 is acting as support. The yen is within a larger short from 84.592, which has a target at 78.227, which would be an all time low. Previous lows at 80.9 and 80.2 may act as support.

Euro/Pound Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Euro:

On the daily, the euro is in measured moves long, from 50% at 1.36148, with a target at 1.3726. The euro has been in measured moves long from January 10.

On the 15 min chart, we can see the euro in long measured moves.

Pound:

On the daily, the pound is in a long setup from 1.59688, with a target at 1.60409. The target from the greater long at 1.58609, is 1.61505.

On the 15 min chart, we can see the pound in measured moves long, with the 50% at 1.59674 backed by the daily pivot at 1.59733. If this fails at 1.59561, we can expect the pound to go back to its next 50% long at 1.5926.

Euro/Pound Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The euro and pound are showing possible reversal patterns best seen on the 15 minute chart.

Euro:

On the 15 min, the euro is showing a possible reversal and is testing its long setup, breaking the trend of the past weeks. A break of 1.3425 is a break of the long the euro has been in. This may only be a reversal into the next long setup, but the play the trend as it lies. Currently the daily pivot at 1.3459 is holding down the market.

Pound:

GBP / USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Violent fluctuations seen yesterday, jumping to 1.5894 then dropping hard in a matter of 3 hours to 1.5718 is most probably a play to hit the largest number of stops on both sides, before initiating a large move. Technically speaking, breaking 1.5871 yesterday is definitely a positive sign, indicating strength. It was the second positive sign after breaking 1.5728 last week. Today, there is a notably important resistance at 1.5880, this level could give the green light to moving higher, or decline this attempt. We believe that breaking this level or failing at it is the single most important factor determining the short term direction. If we break 1.5880, the Pound will not settle for less than 1.60 seen for the first time in months! And may be later 1.6056.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Finally, we broke 84.03 which was under our spotlight for several days. The drop which followed reached 83.59 so far. This break opened the door wide for a test, and most probably a break, of the 15-year low 82.87. We believe that getting there is only a matter of time. As you probably remember, the importance of 84.03 comes from the fact that it is the 61.8% Fibonacci level for the rise from the 15-year low of 82.87 to the post-intervention top 85.91, therefore, it is the “guardian” of the 15-year bottom. This makes breaking 84.03 the first step in breaking 82.87, and reaching fresh 15-year lows. But the question is will this drop be fast, and we see these levels relatively soon, let’s say before the weekend? Or will it be a slow drop that will consume many days to get there?

Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Yesterday, we said “the Euro has 2 choices, not 3: either it breaks 1.3509, or it collapses”, and indeed the Euro did break 1.3509 and reached our first suggested target 1.3589 successfully & accurately (the 2-day high for yesterday & today until the moment of preparing this report is 1.3594). Earlier yesterday, the Euro broke the support at 1.3448 and almost made it to our first suggested target 1.3368, but it stopped 12 pips before achieving this unique happening of reached the sell strategy target & the buy strategy target on the same day. Breaking 1.3509 is a solid confirmation of the righteousness of our medium term outlook.

GBP / USD Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The resistance specified in yesterday’s report as 1.5871 proved its importance as yesterday’s rise stopped only 6 pips below it (yesterday’s high was 1.5865). Then the price started dropping to areas below 1.58. The technical indicators show a state of “overbnought” which leaves the possibility of a sharp correction there, but the short term trend is a rising one after breaking the 1.5728 level. This is why we strongly recommend not to pick sides today before breaking the specified support or resistance, and we believe that the short term direction will not show itself before a break! Short term support is provided by the bottom of the rising trend channel on the hourly chart, which is at 1.5784.

USD / JPY Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

Dead boring, this pair just does not want to move, and to add to it, there are authorities that are “watching closely”. It is not a very promising situation, but we believe everything will change if 84.03 is broken. In the wake of the FED’s statement late Wednesday, We broke below 85 for the first time after the intervention took us above it. We dropped to 84.94 immediately after the Fed, and then to 84.76 during the Asian session. But even after this move, the technical outlook has hardly changed, but speculators have! Dropping below 85 could mean that they are no longer fearful of the Japs, and they are ready for another round with them! But before breaking 84.03 the Yen’s strength will be subdued.




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