Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, TCS, Jio Financial Services and Infosys were among major losers during the early session on Tuesday. Overall, markets were trading flat but getting support from lower levels. Indian markets are basically looking for cues from the global markets. US markets closed nearly half percent lower on Monday as FED FOMC meeting will impact trader's mood this week. TopNews Team has reviewed the latest news and trends for some of the stocks witnessing strong moves today.

TCS: Momentum Stock Backed by Structural AI Tailwinds

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) has entered December 2025 with clear technical strength and a narrative dominated by artificial intelligence and currency leverage. Over the past month, the stock has gained roughly 8%, including about 3% in just the last five trading sessions, signalling renewed institutional interest. It is currently trading above its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages, underscoring short- to medium-term bullish momentum even as it remains capped under the longer-term 200-day moving average, a level many traders will watch as the next technical hurdle.

From a 12‑month perspective, the stock’s volatility band is well defined. TCS marked its 52‑week high at ₹4,494 on December 10, 2024, before sliding to a low of ₹2,876.55 on October 1, 2025, a reminder that even high-quality IT franchises can see deep drawdowns when global tech spending slows or risk sentiment sours. That breadth of trading range provides both context for the current bounce and a framework for risk management: investors buying into the AI narrative are doing so in a stock that has already demonstrated its capacity for double‑digit percentage swings over a relatively short period.

OpenAI–TCS: Building India’s AI Compute Backbone

The single biggest driver of renewed enthusiasm around TCS is its advanced‑stage engagement with OpenAI to build large‑scale AI computing infrastructure in India. Reports indicate that OpenAI is exploring a broad partnership that goes far beyond a typical vendor contract, encompassing the leasing of substantial data centre capacity and co‑development of agentic AI solutions for global enterprises. This aligns squarely with TCS’s stated ambition to become the world’s leading AI‑driven technology services player, not merely a systems integrator but a foundational infrastructure and solutions provider.

At the heart of this vision is HyperVault, TCS’s new data centre subsidiary. OpenAI is understood to be considering a lease of at least 500 MW of data centre capacity from HyperVault to train and run frontier AI models locally within India. In practical terms, a 500 MW commitment would instantly position HyperVault among the most consequential AI‑grade compute platforms in Asia, while providing TCS with a blue‑chip anchor tenant to de‑risk its capex cycle. Beyond raw compute, the two companies are discussing joint development of sector‑specific AI offerings across banking and financial services, retail, consumer goods, and manufacturing, effectively turning HyperVault into a springboard for vertical solutions rather than a mere hosting business.

‘Stargate India’ and Strategic Optionality

Internally, the initiative is being framed as the beginning of OpenAI’s “Stargate India” chapter, with TCS playing the role of strategic conduit between hyperscale AI and enterprise customers in regulated and data‑sensitive industries. TCS leadership is currently in the United States working to finalize the partnership architecture and commercial contours, and a formal announcement is expected before year‑end. The expectation in markets is that this deal, once confirmed, will serve as both a revenue driver and a signalling event, demonstrating that India can host globally relevant AI compute hubs at industrial scale.

Crucially, OpenAI is not expected to inject equity into HyperVault, a choice that preserves TCS’s strategic flexibility. Instead, OpenAI is set to act as the first anchor client, with HyperVault positioned to attract an additional roster of hyperscalers, global enterprises, Tata Group companies, and government agencies. The absence of equity ties reduces concentration and governance risk, allowing TCS to court other AI leaders without triggering conflicts of interest or over‑dependence on a single customer. For long‑term shareholders, this structure keeps upside optionality intact while still using a marquee client to validate the asset.

Rupee Slide: A Classic Tailwind for Export‑Heavy IT

The macro environment has also swung in TCS’s favour. On December 3, 2025, the Indian rupee breached the psychologically important ₹90‑per‑dollar threshold, touching a new record low of 90.4370. The currency is now on track for its steepest annual decline since 2022, with a year‑to‑date fall of roughly 5.3%. For a company like TCS, which earns a substantial majority of its revenue in US dollars, every incremental unit of depreciation drops almost directly into rupee‑reported margins and earnings, subject to hedging policies.

The equity market responded accordingly. TCS stock rose around 2% on December 3 alone, as investors recalibrated earnings estimates for export‑oriented IT names amid the currency slide. The move reflects a familiar dynamic: while a weaker rupee can signal macro stress, it also tends to re‑rate India’s IT exporters as natural hedges, especially when they combine global pricing power with disciplined cost control. For TCS, this currency tailwind is arriving just as it maps out a multi‑year AI capex cycle, giving the company more balance‑sheet flexibility to fund infrastructure build‑out without excessive pressure on reported profitability.

AI Infrastructure Revenue: A Long Runway, Not a Quick Flip

In its October 31, 2025 investor call, TCS management outlined a deliberately phased approach to monetizing its data centre and AI infrastructure ambitions. The company highlighted “active interest and inbound enquiries” from prospective clients for both core compute capacity and higher‑value AI services, but emphasized that capacity additions would be tightly tied to firm, contracted demand. That stance is designed to limit execution risk and avoid the classic pitfall of building speculative capacity that sits under‑utilized.

From a timing perspective, investors should treat this as a FY27–FY29 story rather than a near‑term earnings lever. Management has signalled that the first meaningful revenue contribution from these large‑scale AI infrastructure projects is likely to begin around FY27–FY28, with a more pronounced ramp into FY28–FY29. For portfolio managers, that underscores the need to anchor valuation work not only on current IT services multiples but also on the embedded option value of an emerging AI‑infrastructure franchise that could structurally lift TCS’s growth and margin profile in the next cycle.

Technical Profile and Street Positioning on TCS

Trading data from early December underscores the stock’s improving breadth. On December 3, TCS recorded delivery volumes of about 22.25 lakh shares, pointing to robust participation and accumulation rather than purely intraday speculative activity. The stock rose 1.70% that day, outpacing both the broader IT pack, which gained around 1.10%, and the Sensex, which added a muted 0.10%. Over the preceding three sessions, TCS delivered cumulative gains of approximately 2.85%, reinforcing the impression of a sustained, rather than one‑off, uptrend.

This strength feeds into sector performance. The Nifty IT index climbed to 38,471.60 on December 4, its highest reading since July 10, 2025, with TCS a key contributor to the index’s recovery. Consensus Street positioning remains constructive: the prevailing analyst rating on TCS is “Buy”, with an average 12‑month target price of ₹3,469.64 and a bull‑case target stretching up to ₹4,810. For investors, that leaves room for upside if the OpenAI partnership is formalized on favourable terms and early AI revenues begin to be baked into earnings models.

Asian Paints: A Leader Reasserting Itself

If TCS represents a technology‑driven growth story, Asian Paints is the narrative of an incumbent defending – and potentially reinforcing – its competitive moat. After a bruising period marked by rising crude prices, intensifying competition, and softer demand, the stock has staged a powerful comeback, rallying roughly 25% since mid‑October 2025. The rebound signals that investors are reassessing both the near‑term earnings drag and the long‑term franchise value of India’s dominant paints player.

The headwinds were real. Higher crude oil prices inflated input costs, squeezing gross margins for a business heavily dependent on petrochemical derivatives. At the same time, new entrants and existing rivals escalated the battle for market share through aggressive pricing and promotion, just as broader consumption demand softened. The result was a multi‑quarter stretch of earnings pressure that left sentiment fragile and valuations derated. The recent rally suggests that markets now believe the worst of that disruption phase may be behind the company.

UBS Upgrade: From ‘Sell’ to ‘Neutral’

A key inflection point came on December 2, 2025, when UBS upgraded Asian Paints from “Sell” to “Neutral”, alongside a sharp hike in its target price to ₹3,200 from ₹2,100. That 52% increase in target price is less about short‑term euphoria and more about a structural reassessment of competitive dynamics in the paints sector. The upgrade acknowledges that while risks remain, the probability of a sustained margin collapse or permanent market‑share erosion now looks lower than it did during the peak of the competitive onslaught.

UBS cited several catalysts behind the re‑rating. These include the recent resignation of the CEO of Birla Opus, a high‑profile challenger backed by the Aditya Birla Group, and stronger‑than‑expected quarterly numbers from Asian Paints. The company delivered double‑digit volume growth in Q2 FY26, albeit from a depressed base, signalling that demand has not structurally broken and that the franchise retains pricing and distribution strength. UBS framed the current phase as one where “the peak of the disruption cycle is over,” even as it cautioned that the stock’s sharp price run‑up already embeds ambitious assumptions of roughly 12% compound earnings growth over 15 years.

Competition Eases, But Discipline Matters

The arrival of Birla Opus had initially been viewed as a serious threat to Asian Paints’ long‑standing dominance, particularly given the scale and capital backing of the Aditya Birla Group. The challenger’s aggressive, discount‑heavy market entry strategy pressured both pricing and sentiment across the sector. However, the unexpected departure of the Birla Opus CEO has been interpreted by the market as a sign that the initial hyper‑aggressive playbook may be losing steam, at least in its original form.

For Asian Paints, this shift in the competitive landscape is an opportunity to reassert brand and channel leadership without being dragged into a prolonged, margin‑eroding price war. The company’s ability to hold or grow volume in such an environment points to durable advantages in distribution depth, dealer relationships, and consumer loyalty. That said, investors should not assume competition disappears; rather, the focus shifts from existential threat to manageable rivalry, where execution and cost discipline determine who converts industry growth into shareholder value.

Street Still Divided on Asian Paints

Despite the stock’s rally and the UBS upgrade, analyst sentiment on Asian Paints remains distinctly mixed. Data from one major financial publication show that, among 35 analysts covering the stock, there are 4 Strong Buy recommendations and 7 Buy ratings, but also 9 Hold, 11 Sell, and 4 Strong Sell calls. In other words, nearly 43% of analysts fall into the sell or strong sell camp, underscoring how polarized views remain around valuation and long‑term margin sustainability.

A separate dataset tracking 34 analysts indicates an average 12‑month target price of ₹2,320.41, with a high estimate of ₹2,900 and a low of ₹1,909. The consensus rating here is an outright “Sell”, with only 7 analysts recommending a buy, 20 suggesting sell, and 8 advising hold. For sophisticated investors, this dispersion can be an opportunity: where the Street cannot agree, the payoff to getting the earnings trajectory right – particularly around input costs and volume growth – increases substantially.

Demand, Margins, and the Role of Crude

Operationally, Asian Paints is navigating a difficult but not disastrous demand backdrop. The company continues to face subdued demand in some segments, yet has managed to post double‑digit volume growth, pointing to both underlying category resilience and the strength of its execution. The more acute challenge has been on the cost side, with elevated crude oil prices driving up raw material expenses and compressing operating margins.

At the same time, the industry’s competitive intensity, especially from new players leaning on aggressive discounts, has limited the company’s ability to fully pass on cost inflation to consumers. Even so, Asian Paints has largely maintained its premium and mid‑market positioning, suggesting it has not been forced into destructive discounting that could damage brand equity. If crude prices stabilize or soften, there is meaningful scope for margin repair, particularly if the competitive environment remains rational and the company continues to grow volumes off its strong distribution base.

Asian Paints vs Street Expectations

For market participants, this combination of improving fundamentals, easing competitive pressure, and sceptical consensus sets up an asymmetrical scenario. If Asian Paints can continue to deliver robust volume growth while gradually rebuilding margins as input costs normalize, there is room for earnings upgrades and multiple expansion from currently cautious expectations. Conversely, any renewed spike in crude or re‑intensification of price aggression from rivals could quickly reawaken bear arguments.

Jio Financial Services: Volatile New Age Lender at an Inflection Point

Jio Financial Services (JFSL) occupies a different place in investors’ portfolios: less a mature dividend compounder, more a leveraged bet on the convergence of telecom‑scale distribution, digital infrastructure, and financial services. The stock’s trading history in December underscores that volatility. Historically, JFSL has delivered negative returns in two out of three Decembers since listing. In December 2024, the stock fell by about 9.03%, driving an average negative December change of roughly 5.99%; only December 2023 saw a modest positive return of 1.55%.

Such a pattern does not in itself determine the future, but it does highlight that sentiment around JFSL can swing sharply in relatively short windows, particularly as the company remains in a build‑out phase with an evolving business model. Seasonality in flows, shifting regulatory narratives, and periodic re‑rating of digital financials can all amplify volatility, making position sizing and entry points critical for investors considering the stock.

Regulatory Green Lights and Business Expansion

Fundamentally, JFSL has cleared a series of regulatory hurdles that expand its strategic reach across India’s capital markets. The company has recently received approvals to launch both broking and mutual fund businesses, opening doors into equity trading, wealth management, and investment advisory. These approvals are significant because they allow JFSL to plug directly into India’s rapidly deepening retail investment ecosystem, leveraging the enormous customer base and digital rails of its parent, Reliance Industries.

The dividend policy provides further insight into management’s priorities. In FY 2025, JFSL distributed only about 20% of its profits as dividends, retaining the remaining 80% for reinvestment. That conservative payout ratio is typical of a company emphasizing growth and infrastructure build‑out over near‑term income distribution. For shareholders, it signals that management is focused on scaling operating capabilities and product breadth – from lending to wealth and potentially insurance distribution – before optimizing cash returns.

Price Consolidation and the Technical Setup

On the charts, JFSL has been consolidating above the ₹300–₹310 band, a zone that is increasingly being watched as a support and launchpad for any future move higher. Sustained trading above this range indicates that the market is beginning to find a reference value for the stock, even as opinions differ about the precise trajectory of earnings and return ratios. Investors are closely scrutinizing profit and revenue growth to assess whether the company is transitioning from a story stock to a fundamentally grounded compounder.

The consolidation pattern suggests that a base is forming, albeit amid persistent caution. JFSL’s relatively short trading history, coupled with an evolving and capital‑intensive business plan, means that the stock is still undergoing a process of “price discovery.” In such environments, catalysts – whether quarterly results, new product launches, or further regulatory clearances – can trigger outsized moves in either direction. For traders, this offers opportunity; for long‑term investors, it underscores the need to anchor decisions on business metrics rather than short‑term chart patterns alone.

Takeaways for Investors

For investors navigating these three names, the common thread is the need to balance narrative with numbers and time horizons with risk tolerance.

In TCS, the combination of AI infrastructure optionality, a weaker rupee, and improving technicals offers a compelling medium‑term story, but the bulk of AI‑related revenues will likely materialize only from FY27 onward. Positioning here suits investors comfortable underwriting a multi‑year capex cycle in exchange for potential structural uplift in growth and margins.

In Asian Paints, the key debate pivots on whether the company can sustain volume growth and margin repair in a still‑competitive market while crude prices remain volatile. The divided analyst community suggests that differentiated research on input‑cost trends and channel checks can yield alpha.

In Jio Financial Services, the investment case is a higher‑risk, higher‑beta exposure to India’s digital finance build‑out, backed by a powerful sponsor but burdened by short track record and evolving profitability. Here, careful monitoring of regulatory milestones, product roll‑outs, and unit economics will be essential.