Forex Update

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

The Cable’s rally ran out of gas at our 1.4781 resistance after surging on better than expected CPI and mortgage approvals data.

It appears the GBP/USD may continue its near-term downward momentum towards our uptrend line and 1.4570 support with U.S. equities looking to open lower ahead of key economic data.  Today Britain will give us a better picture of its consumer sentiment with CBI Realized Sales.

Additionally, the U.S. will release a flood of data including Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, and weekly Crude Inventories.  We knew reaching and surpassing February highs would be a challenge.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

The EUR/USD continued its downward momentum yesterday, dropping below our previous 1st tier uptrend line.

To assume the uptrend has been comprised would be an overreaction at this point. However, if the EUR/USD were to fall beneath 3/19 lows, we could see a large near-term drop before the currency pair finds new stability.

The EUR/USD is fighting to keep its head above our medium-term downtrend line and is failing thus far, supporting the belief that we could see more near-term losses.

Technicals aside, it's intriguing the Euro depreciated against the Dollar yesterday considering most EU data came in slightly ahead of analyst expectations.

Gold Daily Commentary for 3.25.09

Gold got shot down yesterday, extending early losses despite a late selloff in U. S. equities. Gold managed to regain some of its losses, but the damage has been done. While the uptrend isn't busted, the precious metal is surely playing with fire.

If gold can't stay within a comfortable range of our new 1st tier uptrend line, the precious metal could collapse back into its downtrend and in effect negate its impressive gains from last week. That being said, last week's run was monumental and backed by high volume.

Therefore, one is led to believe gold can regain its composure and continue on its uptrend. We are looking towards equities for guidance assuming the negative correlation will come into play.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The Dollar is making headway against the Yen, pushing through our 2nd tier downtrend line while backing away from our 3rd tier.

The negative Business Survey Index number is really taking its toll on the Yen. With the Japanese economy slowing much faster than America's and both central banks participating in quantitative easing, investors are leaning towards the Dollar as a safe haven as compared to the Yen.

Perhaps investors are also betting that the BOJ will need to implement additional quantitative easing and economic stimulus measures to buoy the economy, further deflating the Yen.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The Cable continues its impressive run and is charging ahead Tuesday in much better than expected Mortgage Approvals, CPI and Relative Price Index.

Mortgage Approvals have outperformed analyst expectations for the 3rd straight release. Britain's housing market seems to have found a bottom, reigniting hopes the worst of the economic crisis may be behind us.

Additionally, outperformance in the CPI and RPI indicate prices are stabilizing and rising. The GBP/USD is running with all of the positive FX news, popping past February
23rd highs with no foreseeable barriers left between present price and 2009 highs.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 3.24.09

The EUR/USD is selling off slightly Tuesday as the consolidation continues. The currency pair is bouncing off our 1st tier uptrend line while sitting comfortably above our downtrend line, showing investors are holding onto the uptrend as U. S. equities make excellent strides fundamentally.

The EUR/USD is experiencing weakness after a much weaker than expected Current Account, confirming the trend in yesterday's Trade Balance.

The EU is importing far more than exporting, resulting in a larger supply of Euros. On a positive note, all of the manufacturing and services PMIs came in slightly better than expectations, giving investors hope the economic slowdown is leveling off.

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