Buy Hindustan Times Ventures With Target Of Rs 163
A play on Hindi, English and other emerging media HT media (HTML) offers a play on both the Hindi and English print media businesses. It has presences in other emerging media businesses like Radio, job portals etc. 'Hindustan Times' enjoys second position amongst the English dailies with readership base of 3.5mn (IRS Q3FY10). We believe, HT media is uniquely placed to capture growth opportunities across the media platforms - Hindi print, English print, Radio and Internet portals. We expect English ad revenue to post 11% CAGR during FY10-12E and circulation revenue to grow at 2% CAGR during FY10-12E.
Hindi business to add value to the over all business We believe Hindi business will be a crucial growth driver for the HT media. HMVL would contribute 31% to the total revenue each in FY11E and FY12E and operating profit contribution would be 28% in FY11 and 33% in FY12E.
Radio & Mint businesses continue to grow Radio business is operated under the brand name 'Fever 104' has gained good traction and has already achieved breakeven at operating level in Q4FY10. Radio business has grown at 48% CAGR over FY08-FY10. Going forward we expect radio business to grow at 40% CAGR over FY10-12E. Mint continues to remain strong No. 2 player following Economic times with total readership of 2.35 lakhs. With increased contribution from radio and Mint business and reduce losses from Mint (Mumbai edition) we expect EBIDTA to grow at 30% CAGR over FY10-FY12E, OPM at 22% in FY11E and 23% in FY12E
VALUATIONS AND RECOMMENDATION HTML is expected to register revenue and PAT 2Yr CAGR (FY10-12E) of 18% and 19% respectively. With cost efficiency measures, improving profitability from emerging businesses of Radio and Mint we estimate OPM to be at 22% and NPM at 9% for the next two years. At CMP, the stock quotes at 19xFY12E EPS. We believe main business growth would kick in from Hindi business (77.7% subsidiary of HT group) - PAT growth of 35% CAGR over FY10- FY12E. We initiate the coverage on the stock with ‘HOLD’ rating and a target price of Rs163 (20xFY12E EPS).