Commodity Trading Tips for Crude Oil by KediaCommodity

Ajay Kumar Kedia 16 July 2012

Crude-Oil Crude Oil dropped on Saturday after prices gained Friday as China's second quarter GDP turned out not as bad as some predicted, easing global growth worries. The problems at the North Sea Buzzard oil field last week mean that North Sea oil exports are expected to fall to a new 2012 low in August. Global oil demand is expected to rebound in 2013, rising by 1.0 mn barrels per day(mb/d), compared to 0.8 mb/d in 2012, says International Energy Agency (IEA) in its monthly report for July. IEA expects that the glum economic situation will improve next year, although it may not be able to reach the levels attained before the 2008 financial meltdown. As the report says,” muted economic recovery in 2013 supports 1 million barrels per day rise in oil demand.” The report, which includes IEA's first forecast for 2013, says that global oil demand will be 1.1% higher than 2012, averaging 90.9 million barrels a day. The report says,”Growth in non-OPEC supply (+0.7 mb/d in 2013) plus 0.3 mb/d of incremental OPEC natural gas liquids, should match demand growth, leaving an underlying ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ for 2013 that is identical to 2012’s level of 30.5 mb/d.” The Iran story has been brewing in the markets for months, as Western diplomats try to press Iran to halt its nuclear program using a mix of diplomacy and new sanctions. Iran maintains its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating 50.77, where as 50DMA is at 4791 and crude is trading below the same and getting support at 4783 and below could see a test of 4775 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 4802, a move above could see prices testing 4813.