Euro / Dollar Technical Forex Analysis for Forex Traders

The Euro fluctuated before breaking the support 1.2948, surpassing both the resistance & supports with about 10 pips each, fooling us that there is a break, only to frustrate us with a move in the opposite direction. Then, it made up its mind, and broke 1.2948, falling & reaching both suggested target 1.2885 & 1.2820. Today, the price is still trading below the falling channel, clearly, and that leaves us with no reason to change the negative technical outlook (even after a drop of 550+ pips). In fact, this outlook will not change unless we go back to trade inside the channel, which is something that needs a break of the resistance 1.2935 to happen. Before this important resistance, there is short term resistance at 1.2854, this is the one we will focus on for today. If the Euro breaks the resistance 1.2854, it will have a chance to take a breath, and test the bottom of the broken channel at 1.2935. In case we actually surpass this first target and go back to trade within the channel, we will be heading towards the first Fibonacci retracement level for the whole drop from 1.3347. The support is at 1.2802, breaking it is a sign that everything is going ok for the downtrend, and that it will continue to target new lows below 1.30, for today they are 1.2721 & 1.2638.

Support:

* 1.2802: important intraday support, protecting yesterday's low.

* 1.2721: Fed 12th 2009 important low.

* 1.2638: Feb 18th 2009 high.

Resistance:

* 1.2854: important intraday top.

* 1.2935: a clear hourly support, and the retest level for the broken channel.

* 1.3002: Fibonacci 38.2% for the drop from 1.3347.