IREDA share price declined 1.43 percent on Tuesday. The stock opened the session at Rs 175.5 and that level remained the high for the day. As the energy finance major started decline, the stock touched intraday low at Rs 171.69 and closed at Rs 172.7. The stock can take support from Rs 166 levels and with positive overall market sentiment, we can expect a closing above Rs 180 levels during the current week. The overall sentiment is positive and we have seen IREDA staging a strong rally from lows touched a few weeks ago. IREDA has delivered standout financial results and carved a pivotal role in renewable energy lending. Yet, as the post-IPO lock-in expires, investors are faced with a mix of uncertainty and promise.

Financial Performance: Growth Engine in Full Throttle

Beneath the surface of short-term volatility lies a company firing on all operational cylinders. For Q4 FY25, IREDA posted a 49% year-on-year surge in net profit to Rs501.55 crore. Revenue from operations climbed 37% to reach Rs1,905 crore in the same quarter. For the full fiscal year, the company clocked a record PAT of Rs1,699 crore, a healthy 36% increase over FY24.

Its loan book tells a story of accelerating demand for green energy funding. The order book stood at a commanding Rs76,250 crore in March 2025, a 28% jump year-over-year. This growth also reflects in assets under management, which rose in tandem.

Moreover, asset quality improved sequentially, and the net interest income (NII) rose a stellar 57% in Q4 FY25. Margins for FY25 stood at 3.27%, demonstrating both pricing power and disciplined risk management.

Borrowing, Capital Raising, and Future Ammunition

To fuel its lending engine, IREDA’s board revised its borrowing ceiling for FY25 to Rs29,200 crore, up from Rs24,200 crore. The financing strategy includes a mix of domestic bonds and international loans. At the same time, shareholders have approved plans to raise up to Rs5,000 crore via a Qualified Institutional Placement (QIP). This would dilute the government’s stake by roughly 7%—a move that could improve liquidity while diversifying the shareholder base.

These initiatives give IREDA the financial muscle to sustain loan growth and scale operations without straining its balance sheet.

Technical Set-Up: A Tale of Ranges and Resistance

From a chartist’s perspective, IREDA’s stock is locked in a sideways range between Rs140 and Rs180. Technical resistance is pegged at Rs180, with support zones at Rs140–Rs153. The stock is currently hovering around Rs172–Rs174, reflecting indecisiveness in the broader market.

Importantly, the stock is above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but remains below the 5-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped below 30, signaling an oversold condition that may precede a technical rebound.

Support Levels: Rs140–Rs153
Immediate Support: Rs165-166
Resistance: Rs175–Rs180

A breakout above Rs180 could ignite fresh bullish momentum, while a breach below Rs140 would likely trigger further downside.

Analyst Take: Navigating the Fog of Near-Term Uncertainty

A series of expert opinions reflect the market’s divided stance on IREDA. Jigar S Patel from Anand Rathi views the stock as range-bound between Rs165 and Rs180, while Bonanza’s Kunal Kamble recommends a ‘sell-on-rally’ strategy near Rs170, flagging resistance at Rs185.

Shitij Gandhi of SMC Global echoes the cautious tone, urging investors to watch for a breakout. SEBI-registered analyst A R Ramachandran sees slight bullish undertones and posits that a close above Rs165 could push the stock toward Rs184.

Rachit Khandelwal, highlighting valuation concerns, recommends averaging at Rs166 and booking profits around Rs196. Meanwhile, Kkunal Parar remains optimistic, placing long-term targets in the Rs280–Rs300 range, especially post-Budget developments.

2025 and Beyond: The Forecasts at a Glance

Forecasting IREDA’s trajectory is no small feat. Nonetheless, the analyst community and forecasting models provide a varied range:

2025 Projections:

Long-Term Outlook:

These forecasts hinge on IREDA’s continued growth in AUM, stable asset quality, policy tailwinds, and successful capital infusion.

Strengths, Risks, and Strategic Considerations

Core Strengths:

Consistent Financial Growth: A 36% increase in annual profit and 57% growth in NII underscore operational excellence.

Government-Backed Mandate: IREDA plays a strategic role in India’s renewable energy financing, shielding it from cyclical business risks.

Improving Asset Quality: Rising margins and healthier balance sheets are significant de-risking indicators.

Capital Access: The ability to tap Rs5,000 crore via QIP shows financial flexibility.

Technical Overhang: Lock-in expiry raises fears of potential bulk selling.

Valuation Concerns: Even after correction, some analysts argue the stock remains richly priced.

Regulatory Vulnerability: Being a public sector unit, policy shifts could introduce volatility.

Speculative Activity: Rising open interest and declining delivery volumes suggest short-term trades outweigh investment-grade accumulation.

Investor Takeaways: Positioning for What’s Next

IREDA is not a stock for the faint-hearted in the short term. The technical chart indicates a range-bound structure, while the overhang from the lock-in expiry could persist for a few more weeks.

For Traders:
Adopt a disciplined approach, monitoring Rs140 and Rs180 levels closely. Sell on rallies unless a breakout occurs.

For Long-Term Investors:
The fundamentals remain robust. Use dips for accumulation, particularly if the stock revisits the Rs150–Rs160 zone. The green energy narrative is long-term, and IREDA is well-positioned to benefit.