Trend remains down for the USD against the CAD... and continues to lose ground against the EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD and NZD as well. The CAD, AUD and NZD, all commodity related currencies, are pummeling the USD. Gold scorches to 1565 Friday after a pullback below 1500 on Tuesday - putting upward pressure on the AUD and NZD. NZD is not a gold related country itself but since AUD is it's main trading partner, NZD often has an even stronger correlation to Gold prices than the AUD.

Oil continues to push, closing the week right at resistance on the June contract. Recent swing highs are at 114.05, with a recent intra-day high at 114.18. A close above 114 points to sustained upward pressure on the commodity and likely downward pressure on the USD/CAD.

The USD/CAD moved below support at 0.9450 in the final hours of trading Friday. Heading into next week 0.94 continues to be on my radar as the trend remains down, and with 0.9450 battered the door is open to the next psychological support level at 0.94. Based on the ranging movement we have seen since Wednesday, April 20 through to now, the target for the next couple weeks is 0.9340. This will obviously require that early next week we see continued downward pressure below the former 0.9450 support level.

Businesses buying USD can look for favorable intra-day prices to lock in long-term contracts or set up option strategies that provide of a worst case rate (in the event of a sharp reversal) but also allow participation in further USD losses. Speculators should avoid the urge to buy USD until we see some signs of strengthening.

Daily trend remains down until the rate moves above 0.98. Therefore this trend is not imminent danger of reversing. Short term selling opportunities in the USD occur at 0.9470, 0.9510, 0.9540 and 0.9560. A rate above 0.9560 in the first week of May is likely to tucker out by 0.96. Daily average (14) movement for the pair is 75 pips. This should be kept in mind when setting limit and stop orders intra-day. Weekly average movement (14) is 161 pips.

Based on support and resistance levels and weekly average movements, 0.9600 is likely to act as a cap to the upside for the week of May 2. With the trend down and little support, 0.9280-0.9240 is an approximate low for the week if most of the price action is to the downside.