polls are only one-and-a-half months away, but tie-ups still unclear

Poll punditry is a hazardous business at most times, but this time it is going to be tougher to predict how the fortunes of parties and formations will shape up.

The elections kick off a month-and-a-half from today, but even at this stage, there is no clarity on who is signing up with whom for a poll arrangement.

In this game of political promiscuity, everyone is keeping every option open. The last time the NDA went into battle pretty much in the same shape as it began, barring parties such as AIADMK which had withdrawn from the coalition earlier. This mainly stemmed from high confidence in the NDA that its India Shining platform would strike a chord with the electorate. Voters thought otherwise and handed it a defeat. The lessons of that have been taken to heart and despite the UPA being in a relatively strong position compared to any other formation, its constituents are restless and looking around for more stable options.

The Congress and the BJP both cannot count on loyalty and support of allies. Some are shopping for like-minded smaller parties to create the much-vaunted "non-Congress, non-BJP" alternative. The Left, which might do less well than in the previous elections but could still have a fair number of seats, has offered to be the catalyst of this alternative. The Congress itself is keen to demonstrate that it doesn't need allies, but it has no chance of coming to power on its own.

The hopefuls who are ready to sign up range from Sharad Pawar, who has flirted with almost everyone at one time or the other, Deve Gowda, who has burnt his bridges with the two big parties, to Chadrababu Naidu's TDP. But smaller groups such as the Asom Gana Parishad and INLD have already deserted the putative front and Pawar's presence cannot be taken for granted.

His recent moves are a good example of how existing allies are keeping their options open. The Nationalist Congress Party is a partner of the Congress in the Maharashtra government, but their relationship has always been an uneasy one. Pawar now wants a bigger pound of flesh from the Congress instead of the 27-21 seat-sharing formula the latter has offered. If the Congress has its share of trouble with potential allies, the BJP is finding it difficult to keep the NDA flock together. There is no guarantee Nitish Kumar in Bihar, Naveen Patnaik in Orissa or Naidu will stay with it. They feel the BJP will spell trouble for them because the Muslim vote could get alienated, thanks to the recent activities of Hindutva groups.

Two other notables need to be kept in mind — Mayawati in UP and Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu. Both states are capable of swinging the final result. Mayawati, whose cross-country appeal is growing, wants to stand alone and eventually be the epicentre of a new formation in case of a badly hung parliament. She sees herself as the prime minister-in-waiting. Jayalalithaa, who can rock the DMK's boat, appears to have assessed that the Congress has a better chance and has offered to join hands, for which the latter will have to say goodbye to partner DMK.

It is thus not clear at all what the final formations will be.

DID YOU KNOW?

When were the first Lok Sabha elections held?

1952

When were the elections held last? Why elections now?

2004. Polls are being held now because the Lok Sabha’s five-year term is ending

How many voters are there for this election?

71.4 cr, 4.3 cr more than last time

Who conducts the polls?

The Election Commission of India

How many members does the commission have?

From 1950, when it was set up, till 1989 it had only one. From 1989 to 1990, three. From 1990 to 1993, one and since 1993, it has had three members.

Are the boundaries of constituencies the same as last time?

The constituencies that went to polls the last time were carved out on the basis of 1971 census. A delimitation commission has now redrawn constituencies on the basis of 2001 census.

What is the minimum age for a voter?

The minimum age for a voter was brought down from 21 to 18 years in 1988.

What is the minimum age to contest Lok Sabha or assembly elections?

25

How many Lok Sabha constituencies can a candidate contest from?

2

How much security money a candidate has to deposit for Lok Saba elections?

Rs10,000

How far can a polling station be from your home?

Not more than 2 km

How much can a candidate spend on his Lok Sabha campaign?

This varies from Rs10 lakh in smaller constituencies such as Lakshadweep to Rs25 lakh in bigger states such as UP, AP, MP and Bihar

When were electronic voting machines used first? What’s their capacity?

On an experimental basis in 1998. Each machine can handle 64 candidates and 3,840 voters

Is it necessary for a political party to register itself with the election commission?

No

What can it get if it registers?

If recognised as a state or a national party, it gets priority in the allocation of election symbols. Candidates of such parties need only one proposer at the time of nomination

Sidharth Bhatia/ DNA-Daily News & Analysis Source: 3D Syndication