New Delhi  - India's merchandise exports are expected to fall by 22 per cent in January due to the global economic crisis, Commerce Secretary GK Pillai said Tuesday.

"Our exports in dollars terms are expected to decline further by 22 per cent," Pillai was quoted as saying by IANS news agency.

"Export growth will not be even 5 per cent this fiscal year," he said, as the key economies in North America and Europe were facing either a recession or a major slowdown. India's financial year runs from April to March.

Total shipments for fiscal 2008-09 are projected at about 170 billion dollars. India had earlier set a target of 200 billion dollars for the year.

India's merchandise exports registered a decline in October for the first time in seven years and the slump continued into the new year.

The mid-term scenario was even more grim, Pillai said. "It would be an achievement if we reach 160 billion-dollar-mark in 2009-2010," he said.

But federal Commerce and Industry Minister Kamal Nath sought to downplay the trend. "I don't think we should look at provisional figures."

The final figures for January are expected in early March.

Nath also said that he was confident that India would post GDP growth of at least 7 per cent.

Exports comprise about 22 per cent of GDP in India, compared to China, where they are estimated at over 80 per cent.

But the industry includes labour-intensive segments including textiles and garments, gems and jewellery, handicrafts, and marine food processing and is estimated to employ 150 million people.

Layoffs have begun across the country and the Federation of Indian Export Organizations predicts 10 million job losses by March. (dpa)