Ventura Securities has initiated coverage on Jubilant Pharmova Ltd with a "BUY" recommendation at the current market price of Rs 1,067, assigning a 24-month price target of Rs 1,557, representing a compelling 50% upside potential. The brokerage firm's optimistic outlook stems from the pharmaceutical company's strategic positioning across high-barrier specialty segments, including radiopharmaceuticals, sterile injectables CDMO, and allergy immunotherapy—sectors experiencing robust structural tailwinds driven by geopolitical realignment and accelerating outsourcing dynamics across the pharmaceutical value chain.
​

Structural Growth Catalysts Underpinning Investment Thesis

Radiopharmaceutical Dominance: Jubilant Pharmova operates the second-largest radiopharmacy network in the United States with 45 sites serving approximately 1,800 hospitals, delivering exceptional on-time performance exceeding 99% under stringent USP 825 compliance standards. The radiopharmaceutical segment is projected to compound at a 13% CAGR from FY24 to FY30E, reaching Rs 1,969 crore in revenue with EBITDA margins stabilizing at an impressive 46.7% by FY30E. This business serves a total addressable market of USD 400 million, expected to expand by USD 550 million through FY29 via new PET and SPECT product launches and therapeutic innovations.
​
Ruby-Fill Competitive Advantage: The company's flagship cardiac PET imaging product, Ruby-Fill, has disrupted the longstanding US monopoly by offering superior clinical efficacy and reduced cost per scan through extended generator life. JPL commands approximately 25% market share in the US cardiac PET segment, with the installed base growing 24% year-over-year. The US cardiac PET imaging market demonstrates formidable structural growth, with imaging sites expanding from 270+ in 2023 to a projected 420+ by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate of 12-14%, while annual PET scans are anticipated to double from 300,000 to 600,000 units during the same period.
​

Sterile Injectables CDMO: Capitalizing on Capacity Shortfalls

The global sterile CDMO market confronts a projected supply shortfall of 700 million vials by 2027, creating unprecedented opportunities for capacity-equipped manufacturers. Jubilant Pharmova is strategically expanding its sterile CDMO infrastructure with Line 3 commissioning in Q1 FY26E, Line 4 targeted for FY28E, and Line 5 scheduled for FY30E across its Spokane and Montreal facilities. Significantly, a substantial portion of the Spokane capital expenditure benefits from US government support, providing 50% emergency capacity access at market pricing while simultaneously lowering execution risk.
​
The sterile CDMO segment is positioned to deliver the highest growth trajectory with a 14% CAGR over FY24 to FY30E, with revenue reaching Rs 2,445 crore and EBITDA margin stabilizing at 25%. At peak utilization, Lines 3 and 4 collectively offer revenue potential between USD 160-180 million (Rs 1,440-1,620 crore), supported by tightening industry capacity due to consolidation and increasing onshoring by innovator pharmaceutical companies seeking to mitigate tariff, regulatory, and supply-chain vulnerabilities.
​

Financial Trajectory: Margin Expansion and Deleveraging

Ventura Securities projects Jubilant Pharmova will deliver steady financial progression over FY25-FY28E, with consolidated revenue, EBITDA, and net profit compounding at 10.95%, 15.47%, and 11.12% respectively, reaching Rs 9,880 crore, Rs 1,807.2 crore, and Rs 608 crore by FY28E. Operating leverage combined with an improving business mix should lift EBITDA margins to 18.3% and net profit margins to 6.2% by FY28E.
​
Capital Allocation and Balance Sheet Fortification: The company has outlined a comprehensive Rs 3,500 to 4,500 crore capital expenditure program spanning 4.5 years from FY26 to H1FY30, strategically allocated across CDMO, CRDMO, radiopharmacies, proprietary novel drugs, and maintenance for generics and allergy immunotherapy segments. Major capital deployment focuses on CDMO and radiopharma segments, with meaningful returns anticipated to materialize from FY27E onward. Despite this substantial investment cycle, balance sheet strength is projected to improve materially, with Net Debt-to-EBITDA declining from 1.1x in FY25 to 0.6x by FY30E, facilitating a gradual uplift in Return on Capital Employed throughout the forecast horizon.
​

Valuation Methodology and Price Targets

Ventura Securities employed a Discounted Cash Flow methodology assuming an 11.5% Weighted Average Cost of Capital, deriving a FY28 price target of Rs 1,557.2 per share. At the current market price of Rs 1,067, Jubilant Pharmova trades at 27.9X FY28 P/E, which the brokerage considers attractive relative to the company's differentiated growth profile and improving return metrics.
​
The research house has established scenario-based valuations:

Therapeutic Pipeline: I-MIBG Represents Significant Optionality

Beyond diagnostic radiopharmaceuticals, Jubilant Pharmova is advancing I-131-MIBG, a therapeutic radiopharma asset targeting high-risk pediatric neuroblastoma—an ultra-rare oncological indication with substantial unmet medical need. Currently utilized under expanded access programs, I-MIBG benefits from formidable regulatory barriers and limited competitive threats. The company targets FDA submission in H2 FY26 with commercial launch anticipated by FY27, addressing a niche oncology market with USD 70-100 million peak sales potential.
​

Technical Levels and Investment Strategy

Current Market Position: Jubilant Pharmova currently trades at Rs 1,066.6 with a market capitalization of Rs 16,988.93 crore. The stock has demonstrated a 52-week trading range between Rs 802 and Rs 1,250, with promoter holding at 47.67%, institutional ownership at 27.09%, and public shareholding comprising 24.60% as of September 2025.
​
Key Support and Resistance Levels: Based on the valuation bands and technical analysis, the stock exhibits strong support around the Rs 800-850 zone, representing the bear case scenario floor. Immediate resistance appears at the Rs 1,250 level (52-week high), with subsequent targets at Rs 1,400 (intermediate milestone) and Rs 1,557 (base case target). A breakout above Rs 1,600 could trigger momentum toward the bull case target of Rs 1,909.
​

Risk Factors Tempering Upside Potential

Ventura Securities acknowledges several execution risks that could constrain upside realization. Capacity Ramp-Up Delays: Slower-than-anticipated utilization of new sterile-injectable and radiopharma capacities could defer revenue contribution and pressure margins during the investment phase. BioSecure Act Implementation: Delays in contract conversions for CDMO/CRDMO services stemming from the BioSecure Act and China+1 diversification could moderate near-term growth expectations. Pipeline Execution: The proprietary drug pipeline, particularly I-MIBG, may contribute later than anticipated due to regulatory timelines or commercialization challenges.
​

Competitive Positioning and Industry Context

Compared to domestic pharmaceutical peers, Jubilant Pharmova demonstrates differentiated positioning across niche, high-barrier segments with limited direct competition. The company's integrated radiopharmaceutical and radiopharmacy platform remains unique within the Indian pharmaceutical landscape, while its sterile CDMO capabilities align with global reshoring trends favoring North American manufacturing.
​
The consolidated US radiopharmacy market exhibits high concentration, with the top three players dispensing over 70% of products. Cardinal Health operates 160+ pharmacies, while Jubilant Pharmova's 46-site network ranks second, serving 1,800 hospitals compared to Cardinal's 4,100. This market structure, combined with stringent regulatory requirements and specialized manufacturing expertise, creates substantial barriers to entry and supports durable competitive positions.
​

Investment Recommendation and Outlook

Ventura Securities' "BUY" recommendation reflects conviction in Jubilant Pharmova's multi-year growth trajectory underpinned by differentiated assets, favorable industry dynamics, and improving financial metrics. The target price of Rs 1,557 implies 46% upside from current levels, supported by DCF valuation assuming conservative growth assumptions and margin expansion. Investors seeking exposure to specialty pharmaceuticals with structural growth drivers, margin improvement potential, and balance sheet deleveraging should consider accumulating positions at current levels, with the stock offering asymmetric risk-reward characteristics favoring long-term wealth creation.