Kalyan Jewellers Share price jumped 3.1 percent during early session on Wednesday. The stock was trading at Rs 537 after opening the session at Rs 522 (at the time of publication of this report). Kalyan Jewellers has witnessed decline of 26 percent over the last six months and 30 percent over the last one year. While the stock is recovering, we could see resistance at many levels during the upside move. While the stock has seen notable volatility this year, its three-year returns remain staggering. With an ambitious expansion pipeline, strong brand identity, and consistent profitability, analysts remain broadly optimistic despite recent corrections. Valuation concerns and sector-wide headwinds pose cautionary flags, yet the fundamentals appear intact.

Recent Stock Performance and Volatility

As of June 24, 2025, Kalyan Jewellers India Ltd. was priced at ₹520.80, marking a modest uptick of 1% over the previous session. The stock’s journey in 2025 has been anything but smooth. It hit an all-time high of ₹794.6 on January 2 before tumbling sharply to a low of ₹337 on June 4, 2024.

Technically, the stock is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating sustained bearish pressure. The 14-day RSI of 47.93 positions the stock in a neutral zone, while a bullish crossover in the 5-day moving average on June 23 historically correlates with a 5.53% average gain in the following week.

Financial Fundamentals and Q4 FY25 Results

In the final quarter of FY25, Kalyan posted a 37% YoY increase in consolidated revenue, reaching ₹6,181.53 crore. The bottom line showed a quarterly net profit of ₹130.33 crore, with TTM EPS at ₹5.67.

Return on Equity climbed to 14.88% for FY25, outperforming the company’s five-year average of 10.56%. Profit growth has been exceptional, with a five-year CAGR of 38.3%.

From a valuation perspective, the P/E ratio stands at 77.08 and P/B at 11.25—both substantially above sector averages, reflecting investor confidence but also potential overvaluation.

Working capital efficiency has improved markedly, with working capital days declining from 98.1 to 74.1.

Business Strategy and Market Footprint

Kalyan Jewellers commands a wide footprint with 388 showrooms across geographies—278 in India, 36 in the Middle East, one in the U.S., and 73 under the Candere brand. FY26 will witness a strategic expansion drive with plans to roll out 90 new outlets, a bold push aimed at consolidating market share.

The company’s omnichannel thrust includes digital upgrades and the acquisition of Candere, strengthening its appeal to tech-savvy consumers. A blend of regional branding, celebrity endorsements, and a focus on transparency has further bolstered consumer trust.

Recent Market Events and Volatility Drivers

Mid-June saw the stock fall for four consecutive sessions, registering a 7.9% decline. Though this drop underperformed both the sector and broader indices, the longer-term trajectory remains resilient with a 62% 1-year return even after accounting for the dip.

In May 2025, profit-booking after a robust 40% run-up led to a 5% correction. Still, the rebound from below-₹450 levels demonstrates market faith in the company’s fundamentals.

Governance also remains a strong suit. On January 30, 2025, Kalyan reappointed Vinod Rai, former Comptroller and Auditor General of India, as Chairman—an endorsement of the company’s commitment to transparency and accountability.

Analyst Views and Price Targets

Growth Drivers and Risk Factors

Key Catalysts:

Store Expansion: Targeting Tier II and Tier III cities as part of its aggressive growth strategy.

Brand Power: Leveraging celebrity endorsements and purity branding.

Omnichannel Strength: Enhanced digital infrastructure and Candere integration.

Cultural Relevance: Continued demand driven by festivals and weddings.

Key Risks:

Valuation Premium: High P/E and P/B ratios leave little room for error.

Margin Pressure: Rising input costs and pricing competition.

Volatility: Beta of 1.2 signals elevated price sensitivity.

Changing Consumer Behavior: Preference shift to lighter, daily-wear jewellery could challenge the traditional-heavy inventory.

Peer Positioning and Sector Outlook

Kalyan Jewellers is one of India’s top five jewellery retailers, holding approximately 6% of the organized market. Its revenue and profitability growth have outpaced several peers, albeit at the cost of higher valuation multiples.

The industry is undergoing transformation, with greater emphasis on digital channels, lightweight product lines, and millennial-centric marketing. Kalyan appears well-positioned, but the speed of this evolution will determine its long-term edge.

Strategic Takeaway for Investors

Kalyan Jewellers remains one of the most dynamic stocks in India’s consumer discretionary landscape. While short-term corrections have put pressure on its valuation and technical charts, the company’s expansion roadmap, governance framework, and profitability profile present a compelling medium- to long-term investment case.

Short-Term View: Traders should remain cautious as the stock trades below its key moving averages, and sentiment remains soft. Entry should be timed judiciously, especially around the ₹500–₹550 consolidation zone.

Medium to Long-Term View: With price targets as high as ₹810 and a mean target of ₹747, most analysts believe in Kalyan’s upside potential. However, investors should brace for intermittent volatility and track key financial metrics like margins and working capital closely.