Munther T Marji

Euro, Pound In Shorts, Yen In Next Short Setup

What an incredible week! The euro finally broke its range and with determination, and pound is testing its long setup again after a 850 pip drop.

Euro: After the incredible 700 pip drop of the past week, the euro is still in short setups after rebounding at the 1.35 mark. The euro clearly broke the range it had been in throughout the summer and with it the long setup it was in. It is a clear break.

Dollar Index: From Bearish To Bullish

Dollar index gained sharply in the past few days, and formed a daily and weekly close above important resistance; 76.70- July 2011 high. In fact, we can see that price is threatening the upper channel resistance line, where a breakout in many cases confirms a further impulsive rise of wave three. As such, this is another very important evidence that dollar index has bottomed and that prices are now headed towards 81!

Dollar Index chart is attached!

On of the most important evidences for a higher US dollar is definitely the US stock market which is headed higher as technical outlook for the S&P500 (cash market) suggests

Dog Days of Summer be Gone. Euro Messy, Pound May Be in a Short

The last weeks trading have not been the best. I welcome Labor Day and the seasonal change in trading.

Euro: On the daily, the euro is in a very messy consolidation. Not the easiest or the most fun to trade. Can't decide if the euro is in an upward trending chart or in a messy range. The 50% long is at 1.4303, with the target at 1.4666.

Pound: On the daily, the pound is in a short, but it can't be recognized as a short until the long is broken. The line in the sand is at 1.61065, which coincides with the short target from the 50% at 1.64114. If the pound bounces from the long again, the the pound may be in a range.

Yen: Still hugging all time lows. Yawn. In a range between the short at 77.674 and previous lows at 76.3.

Euro in Wedge. Pound in Longs. Yen Edging Lower

Euro: On the daily, the euro is between its short at 1.4388, with a target at 1.4334 and a long at 1.4288, with a target at 1.4629. Looking at the chart, the euro looks like to be in a wedge. Daily pivot is at 1.4368 may hold the euro up.

Pound: On the daily, the pound has retraced after hitting its long target at 1.6638 from the long at 1.6127. The pound is in a long, using 1.6253 as the anchor point. It has been acting as an anchor point on the way up. The 50% is at 1.6435, with a target at 1.6702. This is best seen on the 15 minute chart.

Euro, Pound Bouncing off Next Long, Yen Still Hugging Lows

Euro: On the daily, the euro spent the last couple of days in short setups into the next half way back long at 1.4285. This has a target of 1.4626. The trend break/line in the sand for this long is at 1.42307. If this breaks the longs are officially over, and it could signal a longer term range bound market. If the long carries through, there is little resistance to 1.49.

Pound: The pound continues in its march to its long target at 1.66421 from its long at 1.6129. However on the 15 min chart, the next long move has been broken. The next traditional long is at 1.6349.

On the 15 min chart, the short is broken, and the daily long is holding at 1.64785, with a line in the sand at 1.6464.

Euro, Pound in Longs, Hitting Resistance, Yen Hugging Lows

Euro: On the daily, the euro is in longs but hit resistance at the short setup at 1.43877, with a target at 1.3571. The break in trend/line in the sand is at 1.45186. The euro is in a long at 1.4356, with a target at 1.4532. Looking at the bigger picture the euro is between a long at 1.39058 and a short at 1.4388.

Pound: On the daily, the pound hit the top of its range at 1.6476. The pound is in along setup from 1.6129, with a target at 1.6642.

Yen: On the daily, the yen is still hugging all time lows at 76.294. Trading the yen at these levels can be unpredictable and should be done with very solid stops. the Bank of Japan is known for intervening when starts hitting new lows.

Global Markets In A Minor Corrective Recovery

Markets are very slow today because of Assumption Day in some parts of the word. Stocks however found the bid during Asian hours, and supported some majors against the greenback. Aud/Usd extended a recovery above 1.04 region, but a price action looks very clear there and appears corrective. A corrective recovery is also shown on the S&P-Futures and crude oil, so generally speaking a bearish reversal here should support the US dollar.

*Aud/Usd technical outlook

Euro in Range, Pound In Next Short, Yen Flirting With Lows

Euro: On the daily looks to be in a range between 1.44 and 1.405-1.4125. It has just broken the short it was in, going through the 61.8% line at 1.4294. We can expect it to go to the stop of the range. In the larger term, the euro is between a long at 1.39058 and a short at 1.43877.

Pound: On the daily, the pound broke its range last week and is now testing its next short at 1.62914. The trend break/line in the sand is at 1.63345. The target for the short is at 1.60227.

Yen: On the daily, the yen is flirting with all time lows and has bounced off its previous all time low at 76.294. Technically the yen is still in a short until 78.736.

GBP/USD Stumbles Through 1.6300

The 60-minute GBP/USD had rallied higher through the 1.6300 level as the dollar fell but the pound sterling weakness - despite dollar pressure - has not been enough to keep the pair above the “00” level. The subsequent breakdown lower has triggered a near-term breakdown on the pair. There will no doubt be some gyrations between 1.6305 and 1.6290 as the battle for supremacy of the major psychological level is fought.

If the “00” does not accelerate a breakdown, be patient, there could be one last gasp from the cable towards previous resistance levels that can be faded (sold short). Prices could reach for 1.6500 again (or possibly higher towards weekly resistance and the 200 period SMA) however I still see the same scenario…the pair will be sold into on rallies.

Greece Plan Working Againts The Buck

Greece Plan is sending markets higher across the board, with Nikkei up more than 1.2%, Hang Seng Index +1.7% and China 0.18%, following the pattern form Wall Street. We see the similar situation on European markets that just opened and are already more than 0.5% in the green.

FX market was mostly consolidating in tight ranges, which are only corrective waves within larger pattern, which is clearly against the buck. We expect to see further weakness on dollar index, now towards 73.50 that will send other majors higher, such as Euro, Pound, Aud, and Cad. Regarding the Futures makret, traders should pay attention to 1354 and then 1367 highs on S&P Futures, where break should be extremely bullish signal for days if now weeks ahead.

Eur/Usd Technical Reversal Ahead Of the ECB

After a few days of a bullish run on Eur/usd it seems we will see a biggest daily loss since May 23rd.

Market reversed from 1.47 region just ahead of the significant 78.6% retracement area, measured from 1.3968 lows. In fact, we can see that prices are trying to move back below 61.8% retracement level as well, which would be quite a bearish signal on Eur/Usd for the rest of the week.

From an Elliott Wave perspective, a bearish aggressive outlook is still possible, but nothing is confirmed. You never know how the market will trade, but what we know is that we need a catalyst for a push in either direction. And that definitely could be the ECB press conference tomorrow.

Elliott Wave Fx Overview

Trading during Asian hours was relatively slow but still bearish for stocks after poor NFP from Friday.

Nikkei lost around 0.8% of value, which however did not help to lif the US dollar, which is trapped in 50-80 pips ranges against the majors ahead of the European open! From a larger perspective, however, dollar is likely to weaken early this week, as price action suggests.

Euro, Pound In Unrelenting Long Setups. Yen at Resistance

Euro: On the daily, the euro is in consistent measured moves long and decisively broke the short setups its been in the past months. The next point of resistance may be the traditional half way back short at 1.44547, but best to see the reaction given the euro's strength.

On the 15 minute chart, the euro's measured moves longs are clear. The next extension long is at 1.43632 (line in sand 1.43534) and full traditional long is at 1.43298 (line in sand at 1.43122).

Pound: On the daily, the pound is in steady longs since bouncing off its 50% at 1.60446, with its target at 1.70766.

Euro, Pound In Measured Moves Long Ahead of Long Weekend

Euro: A crook once told me to beware of holiday reversals, when trading will reverse the trend it is in before the holiday, only to continue back in its general direction straight after the vacation. Great advice and a phenomenon I have noticed many times, in spite of the man. I am wondering if that is what is happening with the euro. The euro has decisively broken its short setup and it looks like a short squeeze.

On the daily, the euro has just hit its 50% short from its anchor and it is best to see its reaction here, since the euro is clearly in measured moves long. It is best to wait to see what direction the euro wants to be in.

Euro, Pound in Short. Yen in Long Setups Within Range

Euro: On the daily, the euro is in measured moves short from its extension short from 1.43185, with a target at 1.392. The euro came 40 pips away from its target and has bounced and is in dirty measured moves long. The next short setup is at 1.41307, from the anchor at 1.4293, with a target at 1.3892. The daily pivot is at 1.40505 and is currently acting as support. This is seen clearly on the 15 minute chart.

Pound: On the daily, the pound broke its range and then reacted at the next full traditional long 50% at 1.60446, before hitting its target at 1.60086. Have to watch this area carefully.

New All-time High of Gold against Euro: 1.080 €/oz

Gold has found a good support at 1,487 $/oz after a strong sell-off phase occurred two weeks ago. In fact, the Yellow Metal held out to the downward pressure and rebounded above the psychological threshold of 1,500 $/oz.

EUR/USD 1.39 Target, USD/CAD Verging on Shift

EUR/USD

The Euro has a rough day on Friday, falling about 150 pips. In the last update on this pair 1.3900 was still the target following the major breach of the upward sloping trendline. If 1.3900 fails to support (in the event the market reaches that point) the pair could see an extension into the 1.3700-1.3650 region. Upward trendline support remains be 1.35 but will move up over time.

A rise back above 1.4350 warrants caution and patience to wait for a valid signal (it is "no mans land" between 1.4350 and 1.4450)

USD/CAD

Euro in Measured Moves Short. Pound, Yen In Range

Euro: On the daily, the euro is in measured moves short from its 50% at 1.43167, with a target at 1.39146, with coincides with the next full traditional 50% long at 1.39058. Some resistance may be expected at its former low at 1.40436.

Pound: On the daily, the pound remains in a range, between a 50% short at 1.6311 and a low at 1.61056. The short has a target at 1.60086. The next 50% traditional long is at 1.60446.

Yen: On the daily, the yen is still in its range and is heading towards it half way back at 82.537 where it may meet some resistance, though Fibonacci's within a range are not as reliable.

Euro Hitting Strong Short Resistance, Yen in Long Setup

Euro: On the daily, the euro is hitting resistance at a short at 1.43197, with a target at 1.39233, from the anchor at 1.4589 which has twice already acted as strong resistance into the next measured move short. On the other side of the trade, the euro is still in measured moves long from its low at 1.40474 and today came close to hitting its target at 1.43501 as seen clearly on the 15 minute chart. This is a tug of war point and direction needs to be decided.

Pound: On the daily, the pound looks to be an expanded range. The traditional short is at 1.63111 (line in sand at 1.63596), with a target at 1.60086, which would lead straight into the full 50% long at 1.60446.

Intraday congestion shows the indecision in the EUR/USD

The dollar’s buying momentum continues to struggle at 75.70. Recent highs at 75.73 and 75.70 have proved to be where the bulls are stepping off the train. With that in mind let’s consider what that means for the EUR/USD as prices tackle the resistance between 1.4276 and 1.4288. This 12 pip area in front of the 1.4300 major psychological level is proving to be a formidable ceiling.

The daily chart of the EUR/USD while not quire confirming a downtrend, is trading below the 34EMA Wave with red GRaB candles.*




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