ICICI Securities has reiterated a BUY call on Arvind SmartSpaces Ltd. with a revised target price of Rs 820, implying an upside of about 33% from the CMP of Rs 610. The brokerage’s thesis rests on accelerating pre-sales momentum, a healthy launch pipeline for FY27, and a balance sheet that still carries relatively modest leverage. In its latest result update, the research house argued that the stock continues to trade at a discount to intrinsic project value despite strong execution and improving cash generation.

What changed in Q4FY26

Arvind SmartSpaces delivered a sturdy fourth quarter, with pre-sales of Rs 612 crore, up 61% year on year and 85% sequentially. Much of that strength came from new launches, especially Skycrest in Bannerghatta and Greenfields in Vadodara, while sustenance sales in Ahmedabad and Bengaluru added further support. Collections rose to Rs 355 crore, operating cash flows improved to Rs 96 crore, and net profit jumped to Rs 44.2 crore despite a modest dip in revenue from timing-related recognition effects.

Why the brokerage is constructive

The central argument is simple: the company is entering FY27 with more launchable inventory, stronger visibility on business development, and a better earnings mix. Management is targeting Rs 3,000-Rs 3,500 crore of gross development value launches in FY27 across Gujarat, Bengaluru, and Mumbai, with six projects lined up in the pipeline. ICICI Securities believes this should lift pre-sales growth to 35%-40% in FY27, while the medium-term pre-sales growth guidance of 25%-30% remains intact.

Business development stays active

Arvind SmartSpaces added six projects in FY26 with cumulative GDV of Rs 3,410 crore, including premium residential high-rise assets. In April 2026, it also secured a large Goregaon project in Mumbai with GDV of Rs 2,400 crore and roughly 43% profit share, which meaningfully expands the launch runway. The company continues to scout opportunities across Ahmedabad, Bengaluru and the Mumbai Metropolitan Region, with FY27 business development guidance of Rs 4,000-Rs 5,000 crore.

Balance sheet and cash flow profile

The balance sheet remains relatively light for a developer of this scale, with net debt to equity at 0.26x and FY26 operating cash flow of Rs 417 crore. Collections rose to Rs 1,100 crore in FY26, while land and construction outflows were contained enough to preserve cash generation. The company also has access to additional funding lines, including a credit line from HDFC Capital and planned debenture issuance, which should support future land acquisition and project rollout.

Earnings quality and margin story

Even though FY26 revenue fell to Rs 564.1 crore, the operating metrics improved materially in Q4, reflecting a healthier project mix and better absorption. EBITDA margin for the quarter expanded to 38.2%, up sharply from 20.6% a year ago, and annual EBITDA for FY26 stood at Rs 151.9 crore. ICICI Securities expects earnings to scale up sharply in FY27 and FY28 as new launches convert into bookings and revenues, with PAT projected at Rs 129.3 crore and Rs 164.3 crore, respectively.

Valuation logic behind Rs 820

The target price is derived from a project NAV approach that values ongoing, completed and upcoming residential projects, while also factoring in expected business development over the next two years. In the brokerage’s framework, residential ongoing and completed projects contribute Rs 352 per share, upcoming projects add Rs 357 per share, business development adds Rs 149 per share, and net debt reduces value by Rs 36 per share. That math produces an NAV of Rs 822, rounded to a target price of Rs 820.

Level watch for investors

For market participants tracking the stock, the report suggests a constructive setup as long as the launch cycle remains on track and leverage stays contained. The immediate reference level is the current market price of Rs 610, while the brokerage target sits at Rs 820. On the downside, investors will likely monitor the stock’s ability to hold above its recent trading band, especially given the 52-week range of Rs 490-Rs 756; on the upside, sustained progress in FY27 launches could help the stock move toward the target area.

Risks to track

The report does not ignore the risks. Geographic concentration leaves the company exposed to localized demand shifts, while project execution remains a critical variable in a business that depends on timing, approvals and delivery discipline. Macro conditions and regulatory changes could also affect sales velocity, project costs and collections, so the valuation case is best viewed through a medium-term lens rather than a short-term trade.

Investor lens

In plain terms, ICICI Securities sees Arvind SmartSpaces as a developer with enough scale, balance-sheet flexibility and project visibility to keep compounding. The stock’s appeal lies in the combination of stronger pre-sales, a thickened launch pipeline, and valuation support from project NAV, not in a flashy near-term earnings surprise. For investors with a 12-month horizon, the brokerage’s message is clear: the setup still looks favorable, and the call remains firmly BUY.