ICICI Securities has reiterated a “BUY” recommendation on Bharti Airtel with a 12-month target price of Rs 2,350, implying an upside potential of nearly 23% from the current market price of Rs 1,905. The brokerage believes Airtel’s strong wireless positioning, industry-leading ARPU profile, expanding broadband ecosystem, improving Africa operations, and aggressive debt reduction strategy continue to reinforce its long-term investment appeal. While quarterly ARPU growth remained subdued due to the absence of tariff hikes, the telecom giant continued to deliver robust subscriber additions, margin resilience, and healthy cash flow generation. ICICI Securities expects the next major earnings acceleration phase to emerge from tariff hikes in H2FY27, broadband monetisation, enterprise digital services, and Airtel Africa’s operational leverage.

ICICI Securities Maintains Positive Outlook on Bharti Airtel

Bharti Airtel remains one of the strongest telecom plays in India’s consolidating telecom industry. According to ICICI Securities, the company continues to outperform peers through superior ARPU metrics, stronger cash generation, premium subscriber additions, and operational discipline. The brokerage has maintained its “BUY” stance while valuing the stock on a Sum-of-the-Parts (SoTP) basis with a revised target of Rs 2,350.

The research house highlighted that Airtel’s strategic clarity on capital allocation and promoter ownership consolidation has further strengthened investor confidence. The Mittal family’s long-term ambition to eventually secure a 51% controlling stake through Bharti Telecom was viewed positively by the market as it signals stronger promoter commitment to the business.

Q4FY26 Performance Reflects Stable Operational Momentum

Bharti Airtel delivered another quarter of consistent operational execution despite the absence of tariff revisions. Consolidated revenues for Q4FY26 stood at Rs 55,383 crore, registering growth of 15.7% year-on-year and 2.6% sequentially. Consolidated EBITDA came in at Rs 31,492 crore with EBITDA margins at 56.9%. Adjusted profit after tax rose sharply by 38.7% YoY to Rs 7,245 crore.

The company also made significant progress on deleveraging. Net debt excluding lease liabilities declined by approximately Rs 21,443 crore sequentially to Rs 91,049 crore, supported by strong internal cash generation and proceeds from the rights issue.

Wireless Segment Continues to Anchor Growth Story

The India wireless business once again emerged as Airtel’s strongest earnings pillar. Wireless revenues increased 8.3% YoY to Rs 28,652 crore, largely driven by subscriber additions and higher premiumisation trends. Airtel added 4.7 million wireless users during the quarter, taking its subscriber base to 373.2 million.

The company also continued to dominate in high-value subscriber additions. Airtel reported robust 4G and 5G net additions of 5.8 million users, with total 4G/5G subscribers reaching 299.1 million. Postpaid additions remained healthy as well, with approximately 815,000 new subscribers added during the quarter.

Although ARPU slipped marginally on a sequential basis to Rs 257 from Rs 259, management attributed the moderation to fewer days in the quarter and the absence of tariff hikes. The brokerage expects this softness to reverse meaningfully over the next two years.

Tariff Hikes Could Trigger Next Earnings Expansion Cycle

ICICI Securities expects Airtel’s next major profitability inflection point to come from tariff increases in H2FY27. The brokerage has factored in an estimated 10% tariff hike during the second half of FY27, which could push Airtel’s ARPU to nearly Rs 309 by FY28.

This would imply an ARPU CAGR of nearly 9.8% between FY26 and FY28. The brokerage believes higher pricing combined with premium subscriber migration could help India wireless EBITDA margins expand toward 61% by FY28.

The telecom sector’s improving pricing discipline and rational competitive landscape are also expected to support Airtel’s monetisation strategy over the medium term.

Broadband and Enterprise Businesses Add Diversification Strength

Airtel’s non-wireless business segments are increasingly becoming meaningful growth engines. The company added 1.12 million broadband subscribers during the quarter, taking its home broadband base to 14.2 million users.

Management stated that the company is aggressively pivoting toward fibre infrastructure while selectively deploying Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) where fibre deployment remains difficult. Airtel added more than 8 million home passes during FY26, taking its total footprint to nearly 45 million.

The enterprise business also remained stable, with revenues rising 3.3% YoY to Rs 5,490 crore. Airtel’s digital services portfolio — including cloud computing, IoT, cybersecurity, and enterprise connectivity — continues to scale rapidly and management disclosed that several new enterprise deals were secured during the quarter.

Africa Business Emerging as a Strategic Value Driver

Airtel Africa continues to evolve into an increasingly important contributor to consolidated growth. Africa revenues rose 35.6% YoY during FY26 while quarterly revenues climbed 6.8% sequentially to Rs 15,010 crore. EBITDA margins in Africa improved to 50.4%.

Airtel also approved a strategic share swap transaction that would increase its effective stake in Airtel Africa to nearly 79%. ICICI Securities believes this move improves promoter alignment while simultaneously reducing market overhang concerns linked to SingTel stake dilution.

Management remains optimistic on Africa’s long-term data consumption and financial inclusion opportunities, especially as smartphone penetration and mobile banking adoption continue to rise across emerging markets.

Capex Discipline and Data Centre Expansion Remain Key Themes

Despite aggressive network investments, Airtel appears committed to maintaining disciplined capital allocation. Management indicated that India capex for FY27 is likely to remain broadly similar to FY26 levels. However, spending priorities are gradually shifting from radio rollout toward fibre, transport networks, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise digital services.

The company’s Nxtra data centre business is also entering a fresh expansion phase. Airtel plans to increase its data centre capacity to nearly 1 GW over the next three to four years while aiming to expand market share from approximately 12% currently to nearly 25% over time.

Financial Outlook Suggests Strong Earnings Visibility

ICICI Securities expects Bharti Airtel’s earnings profile to strengthen materially over FY26-FY28. Revenue is projected to increase from Rs 2,10,973 crore in FY26 to Rs 2,62,804 crore by FY28, while EBITDA could rise to Rs 1,55,161 crore.

The brokerage estimates FY28 EPS at Rs 79.3 while return ratios are expected to improve significantly as debt levels decline further.

Investment View Remains Constructive

ICICI Securities believes Bharti Airtel remains one of the best-positioned telecom operators in India’s evolving digital economy. The brokerage highlighted the company’s premium subscriber mix, superior wireless economics, broadband scalability, Africa optionality, and enterprise digital expansion as long-term value creators.

While near-term ARPU growth may remain modest until tariff hikes materialise, Airtel’s improving balance sheet, strengthening cash flows, and expanding digital ecosystem continue to reinforce its long-term structural growth thesis.

Key Risks: Intensifying competition, potential market share erosion, slower tariff hikes, and elevated capex requirements remain the primary risks to monitor.