Forex Update

Crude Daily Commentary for 4.8.09

The battle back to $50/bbl never materialized yesterday and crude futures continued to freefall from our 1st tie uptrend line. Though we don't want to be premature, it seems the backbone of the uptrend has been broken. Now, we could always see a strong rally today to get the futures back above our 1st tier uptrend line.

However, our point of no return uptrend line is looking down at price. This is a strong statement, and crude futures could be in for even more large losses before they stabilize. The futures are holding onto April lows for dear life, and if these don't hold, look out below.

Treasury Bond Daily Commentary for 4.8.09

The 30 Year T-Bond futures logged only modest gains despite yesterday's broad selloff in U. S. equities. The 30 Year futures are following our downtrend to a tee, indicating they are still gravitating towards the downside.

Therefore, the 30 Year futures could be transmitting the same message as gold in that the present selloff in U. S. equities is only temporary. On the other hand, the selloff in the 30 Year futures could be disconcerting in the fact that the movement represents disinterest in the massive treasury auctions taking place to fund America's economic initiatives.

S&P Daily Commentary for 4.8.09

The S&P futures continued their selloff yesterday as well-regarded economists, including Dallas Fed's Fisher, flooded the wires with negative outlooks concerning the health of the economy and solvency of banks. Although the present pullback has been brisk, it hasn't been supported by high volume or U. S. economic data. Regardless, the selloff has taken the wind out of the rally's sails.

The S&P futures went as far as to dip below our 1st tier trend line. However, investors will need very negative news on the earnings or data front to send the futures back below the critical 800 level.

USD/JPY Daily Commentary for 4.7.09

The USD/JPY topped out yesterday and is reencountering the key 100 level as we anticipated. 100 is such a critical psychological hurdle that it's no surprise the currency pair is hesitating to leave it behind. The BOJ kept its benchmark rate at 0.1% today with little to no wiggle room monetarily.

However, the BOJ announced the initiation of new, vague quantitative easing tactics to try and liquefy the Yen. The announcement is having an inconsequential impact on the USD/JPY and its path is still highly reliant on the performance of the two economies.

GBP/USD Daily Commentary for 4.7.09

The Cable followed U. S. equities and the Euro lower yesterday and investor uncertainty returned concerning the state of financials. However, the downward movements of the GBP/USD remain less exaggerated than the EUR/USD due to the consistent improvement in British economic data.

Today's manufacturing and industrial production numbers reiterated this trend, as both came in encouragingly above analyst expectations. Once again the relative strength of the Pound is revealed in the weakness of the EUR/GBP.

EUR/USD Daily Commentary for 4.7.09

The EUR/USD topped out at our 3rd tier uptrend line yesterday and is contracting quickly as U. S. equities look to open sharply lower for the second straight session.

Lacking economically fundamental reasons for dropping, the EUR/USD is reacting to psychological blows dealt by George Soros and the IMF. Yesterday Soros reiterated his skepticism regarding the solvency of U. S. banks, and the IMF is rumored to announce it predicts that U. S. financials are exposed to over $3 trillion worth of toxic assets.

Additionally, the EUR/USD was already in a comparatively weak position against the Dollar as compared to most other major pairs due to the uncertainty regarding future ECB monetary policy.

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