Forex Update

EUR/NZD: A Short Opportunity

EUR/NZD: A Short OpportunityOn EUR/NZD I see five waves up in leading diagonal followed by a five wave decline from 1.6840 which is first leg of minimum three wave retracement.

As such, wave (b) retracement back to 1.6590-1.6700 could be interesting for shorts in wave (c) down.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Brent Oil Looks For Correction Before Turning Higher

Brent Oil Looks For Correction Before Turning HigherBrent Oil: We don't track this market much, but We know that most of the time it should move similar to Crude oil.

However, this is not the case for the last few weeks (Brent was up, Crude down in November), so at this time each instrument should be tracked separately.

Remember; lets focus on what is actually happening, and not on what we think it should be happening! On Brent We see a wedge pattern to the upside, counted as a leading diagonal in wave A so we expect a deeper three wave retracement in B, back to 107-108 region before uptrend resume for wave C up.

Elliott Wave Forecast For GBP/USD

GBP/USD Could Face Resistance

The GBP/USD broke to a new high as expected after we identified end of a corrective retracement at 1.5850. As such, we are now tracking a new impulse leg up with can be wave C, final part of a double zigzag in wave E). If this is correct count then rally from July low is near completion. Ideally we will see a reversal down from around 1.64-1.66 region.

India's forex reserves rise by $2.69 bn

India-forexMumbai, Nov 30 : India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves rose by $2.69 billion to $286.26 billion for the week ended Nov 22, helped by a sharp increase in foreign currency assets, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showed.

Forex reserves had increased by $1.45 billion to $283.57 billion for the week ended Nov 15.

Foreign currency assets, the biggest component of the forex reserves, rose by $2.76 billion to $258.66 billion during the week under review, according to the RBI's weekly statistical supplement.

The FCA had increased by $1.46 billion to $255.90 billion during the week ended Nov 15.

E-Mini S&P 500: Hits New Highs

S&P Futures are at new highs which has been expected after only three wave retracement back to 1774 last week, labeled as black wave iv. This black wave iv is part of a five wave rally which means that price is now in final stages of current impulse so correction could occur in this week.

This can happen from around current levels where wave v equals to wave i, or it can be from the second projected level 1825 (261.8% extension of wave i). A divergence on the RSI also suggests a coming reversal in price.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

EUR/USD Finally Turns Bearish

EUR/USD Finally Turns BearishEUR/USD has finally turned bearish after very complex and slow recovery from 1.3293 low. We believe this is a corrective move that is now showing signs of completion around 1.3576.

The reason is latest sharp decline through the lower support line of a corrective channel which is important break for a continuation in the direction of a trend, which is down.

We expect a revisit of 1.3293 in the next few days.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Elliott Wave Outlook: S&P Futures Reversed Higher, Oil Hit Lows

S&P Futures

S&P Futures reversed nicely higher on Friday from 1737 where we see a completed wave (c), third leg of a decline from 1773 which was an expanded flat formation. As such, we think that price is now back in bullish mode that could reach 1780 - 1800 in the next few days.

SPX

CRUDE OIL

Oil is at the lows, so obviously corrective bounce has unfolded sooner than we thought. Now when we are looking at the whole wave structure from the past 30 days we see prices moving down in wave 5 that could be targeting 90-91 region in the next few sessions. Once this zone is met, be aware of a corrective bounce.

OIL

GOLD

USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Suggests Lower Price

USD/JPY finally broke to the upside yesterday, above former swing high but rally has then stopped at 99.40 from where we have seen a sharp almost 200 pip fall. If we take a closer look now on whole rally from 96.55 then we can see that recovery has unfolded only in three legs which is bearish structure that is pointing now lower, back to 96.55, especially once lower support line of a corrective channel gives way. USDJPY Elliott Wave 4h

India's forex reserves down $1.65 bn to $281 bn

India's forex reserves down $1.65 bn to $281 bnMumbai, Nov 9 : India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves declined by $1.65 billion to touch $281.29 billion for the week ended Nov 1, official data showed.

The forex reserves had risen by $1.82 billion to touch $282.95 billion for the week ended Oct 25.

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Weekly Statistical Supplement, India's foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the forex reserves, decreased by $894.2 million to $253.60 billion for the week under review.

Crude Oil Analysis: Correction In Progress

Crude OilCrude oil fell down to 93.00 in this week where we can see a completed five wave decline from 98.80 and also from 103. Notice that prices has moved out of a recent downtrend channel which is a very important sign for a change trend, even if just temporary.

 As such, we suspect that market is now forming a three wave retracement back to 96.00 areas. OIL Elliott Wave Analysis 4h OIL Elliott Wave Analysis 11713 On short term chart Oil prices are pointing towards a new high after small three wave pull-back to 97.44 which was wave iv) so prices are now moving up in wave v) that could complete wave (a) just beneath $96.

GBP/USD: Weakness Could Resume From 1.6000 - 1.6050

GBP/USD: Weakness Could Resume From 1.6000 - 1.6050GBP/USD reversed sharply lower last week through 1.6000 with very sharp and aggressive sell off on Thursday, so it seems that decline from 1.6250 is unfolding in five waves. With that said, we suspect that pair will move even lower in this week.

At the moment we can count five down in wave (iii) followed by a wave (iv) bounce that could reach levels around 1.600-1.6050 before new sell-off occurs, this time down in (v) to 1.5800.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

Bearish Reversal On EUR/USD: A Short Opportunity?

EUR/USD fell sharply lower with accelerating price action towards 1.3550 with characteristics of an impulsive decline. Notice that pair also moved through the channel support line connected from September low which could be an important evidence for a change in trend.

From a minimum expectation point of view a decline from 1.3835 should unfold in three legs, so be aware of more weakness and maybe even a short opportunity after wave 2/B pull-back. For now price is still moving lower in wave 1/A that could stop at 1.3450-1.3500 zone; at former wave four.

India's forex reserves up $1.82 bn to $282.95 bn

India's forex reserves up $1.82 bn to $282.95 bnMumbai, Nov 2 : India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves gained $1.82 billion to touch $282.95 billion for the week ended Oct 25, official data showed.

The forex reserves had risen by $1.88 billion to touch $281.12 billion for the week ended Oct 18.

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Weekly Statistical Supplement, India's foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the forex reserves, increased by $1.80 billion to $254.50 billion for the week under review.

EUR/USD: Corrective Pause Within Uptrend

EUR/USD: Corrective Pause Within Uptrend EUR/USD is bullish for the last few weeks but now also sideways around 1.3800 area which is nothing else than just another corrective pause within larger uptrend.

We suspect it's wave (iv) that is part of incomplete five wave rally in wave 3 from 1.3470. As such, sooner or later pair should accelerate to a new high, which be a fifth wave of 3 that may reach levels around 1.3860/1.3900 later this week.

Meanwhile we also need to keep an eye on 1.3700 level where our impulsive bullish count would become invalid as wave (iv) must not trade into the territory of a wave (i).

EUR/USD Bulls Could Extend Up To 1.3900

EUR/USD Bulls Could Extend Up To 1.3900EUR/USD is bullish for the last few weeks with accelerating price action from 1.3470 so we suspect it represents a black wave 3 in progress that may extend even up to 1.3900 with five subwaves.

Right now price could be slowing down in wave (iv), but only temporary as we will look for a push up in wave (v) in this week. Support for current pull-back comes in around 1.3760.

Forex Analysis by Gregor Horvat at ForexPros. com

India's forex reserves up $1.88 bn to $281.12 bn

India-forexMumbai, Oct 26 : India's foreign exchange (forex) reserves gained $1.88 billion to touch $281.12 billion for the week ended Oct 18, official data showed.

Forex reserves had risen by $1.51 billion to touch $279.24 billion for the week ended Oct 11.

According to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Weekly Statistical Supplement, India's foreign currency assets (FCA), the biggest component of the forex reserves, increased by $1.84 billion to $252.69 billion for the week under review.

E-Mini S&P 500: Support Seen At 1735

S&P Futures are trading nicely higher since prices turned sharply to the upside more than a week back after a break out of a downward channel that put impulsive price action in play.

Impulses are five wave patterns which for now is still not the case, so we assume that market is in corrective wave (iv) pull-back to 1735 where price may find a support and turn up in to wave (v) towards 1770. At 1735 you will find a former wave four as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area compared to wave (iii) where typical fourth waves will find a base.

Critical invalidation level stands at 1709, at wave (i) swing high, because we know that in impulsive trend price of wave (iv) must not trade into the territory of a wave (i) otherwise the wave count is wrong.

GBP/USD: Looking Bearish Against 1.6260

GBP/USD: Looking Bearish Against 1.6260GBP/USD is very slow and choppy above 1.5900 level so we think that move from the latest low is corrective, therefore we think that recovery is temporary.

In fact we labeled a decline from 1.6260 with five waves down which is evidence of a bearish price action, marked as wave (a) or (i). In both cases we expect a third leg lower once corrective wave (b) or (ii) will complete a retracement. Ideally this will occur somewhere between 38.2-61.8% retracement area compared to previous decline. In that region we also have a parallel trend line connected from 1.6161 swing that could also react as a resistance level.

USD/INR Update by KediaCommodity

USD/INR Update by KediaCommodityUSD/INR dropped following reports that the Indian government is in talks with the JPMorgan Chase and Co. and others to gain entry to benchmark indices for emerging market debt and may ease some restrictions on foreign purchases of rupee-denominated debt in hope of attracting more dollar inflows to the country.

The RBI sold $3.2 billion in the forex spot market, and bought $724 million in August, the central bank's bulletin showed. In the month ago period, the central bank had sold $6 billion in the forex spot market, and bought $50 million.

A Rally For USD/JPY While 10 Year US Treasuries Move Lower

US Bonds were trading lower in the last two sessions after the minutes of the Federal Reserve showed that most policymakers still favor a tapering program this year. But sell-off on bonds came on news that QE could end in mid-2014. USD was firstly down on the news, but then it recovered during the Asian trading hour. However, EUR/USD is again finding some bid, so no real direction at the moment. Meanwhile the S&P Futures are rallying.

I am looking at the 10-year US notes where I suspect that prices are moving lower into wave B that is part of a larger three wave rally on a daily chart. Wave B could reach levels around 124-124.50 so there is room for more weakness. If weakness will resume, then US yields will rally which will support the USD/JPY.




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